Smith conducted a poll that was taken out for Globes and was released on Feb 12 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [18] Likud
24 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
13 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] United Arab List
09 [20] Yesh Atid
08 [10] Shas
08 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
70 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating a BB coalition)
50 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating a BB coalition)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
What happens if Marzal stays disqualified? Do they get to replace him, or everyone moves up one?
Also, does anyone know what % are “don’t know”? Could that affect Yachad’s chances of beating the Achuz?
Everyone gets bumped up one, unless Supreme Court decides overturns the disqualification.
So that kills the merger? No chance of getting Ben-Ari in there or someone else of his choosing?
Great website Jeremy! Will you be publishing the breakdown of today’s disqualifying votes by the Central Elections Committee?
CEC defeated motions to disqualify The Joint Arab List, Yisrael Beitenu & Green Leaf.
Zoabi was disqualified by the CEC by everyone except Meretz & Arabs.
The Marzel vote was the closest, he was disqualified 17-16. Yesh Atid, Zionist Union, Meretz and United Arab List voted for. Likud, Yisrael Beitenu, Shas, Bayit Yehudi and UTJ voted against banning Marzel.
Who voted to disqualify Green Leaf?
I’m mentioned this before, but I really don’t understand your spin. There really is only about 41 seats that are solidly for Bibi preferred (Likud, BY and YaHad) 24+13+4= 41 in contrast there are about 46 (not counting the Arabs) or 58 counting the Arabs who either favor, or are leaning more
towards Buji. (Labor, Yesh Atid, Meretz with Kuhlanu’s 8 sold to whoever gives him the Land Authority). combine that with the Arab List (12) you are pretty close to a majority blocking Bibi, allowing for a minority government or the Arabs sitting outside like the Haredim do. Further, UTJ and Shas (15) may prefer Bibi, but they want to punish him a little for the last coalition, and won’t make it easy. Lieberman also would rather not go with Bibi, and he’ll bargain hard for his seats. Bibi, who is a master chessman may resort to creating a national unity government with Labor and the Religious parties (70 plus) to avoid too many concessions to BY and the Centrists.
With YB struggling for 6 seats. I can not see any scenario where Lieberman could be in any position of influence. Using your analogy of him being a master chessman its Checkmate.
Your point about the charedim is well made. In the present government all the other parties excluding Labour put the boot in. However I can not see the charedim supporting Livni in the second half. What I can see is them supporting Herzog for the first 2 years and then for any spurious reason bring the government down when Livni becomes PM. Revenge is sweet!!!!
I have touched on this issue throughout the 10 weekly average pieces and really ever since the previous government was formed in 2013. The importance of the Likud-Bayit Yehudi-Koolanu-UTJ-Shas-Yisrael Beitenu-Yishai bloc is not “the next coalition”, rather the ability for Netanyahu to have the chances to form the next coalition. If that bloc goes under 61 – BB can’t form any coalition.
As for your analysis, you are looking at assumptions as fact and that is something I cannot agree with.
https://knessetjeremy.com/2015/02/08/knesset-jeremy-poll-of-polls-weekly-average-10-likud-25-3-zionist-union-23-6-bayit-yehudi-13-0-united-arab-list-12-0-yesh-atid-10-4-koolanu-7-5/