Teleseker conducted a poll that was broadcast by Channel 1 on Feb 11 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
27 [18] Likud
23 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
12 [11] United Arab List
11 [11] Bayit Yehudi
10 [20] Yesh Atid
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
06 [10] Shas
05 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
70 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating a BB coalition)
50 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating a BB coalition)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Posts a poll showing Likud up 4 but not the TOI showing them down 4. Okay then.
I’d also wondered why the TOI poll wasn’t included but on reading the article I noticed it was conducted February 1-3, so it might be a little dated by now.
I post polls from the top 10-12 polling companies in Israel.
202 is led by a great guy but he doesn’t fit that category.
I do put up other polls when the pollster or the body that broadcast/publishes poll sends me the full report. Many pollsters provide me with their reports.
So the frogs are jumping again!
from the 7th of Feb through today – all of 4 days,
we have had Likud at 27 and Labour Livini at 23, since then we have had them dead heating, we have had Likud at 23 LL at 27 and who knows what else in between and now we are back to Likud at 27 and LL at 23.
Right , so who is the nut here? me who is a sceptic on all these polls for now at least, or the ones who sit and analyse them in detail , and make media headlines pretending they can read the signs. Might as well read tea leaves or play roulette, just as scientific. I am off now, I just saw a Yeti.
This is essentially the statistical margin of error of each poll. Noise isn’t a sign of something wrong – it’s a sign of something right. That’s why Jeremy’s average of the polls is valuable, as it helps us distinguish between the signal and the noise.
The bloc math seems pretty stable between these polls. The “real” numbers seem somewhere between 66/54 and 70/50. Frankly, I think it’s remarkably stable. The only major differences from the previous election seem to be some movement from YB to Likud, from Yesh Atid (and Kadima) to Koolanu, and Shas splitting in two.
This is almost identical to last weeks Telesker poll. In fact, the TOI poll aside, this weeks polls are relatively similar to what each was the last time around. The only movement seems to be that BY continues to be in a bit of a vice between Likud and yachad.
I take your point, and that made by Jeremy above. But a News site has made a very big issue of that TOI poll last I looked, with graphs and charts and in depth analysis etc , etc
When you only do one poll during an election cycle it is going to get a lot of press and that makes perfect sense to me.
I like graphs and charts, but I prefer excel spreadsheets and hard data before making my analysis of any given poll.
Jeremy, just found your site here in NYC. Could you post for those new to following this year’s race a diagram showing which parties would clearly be open, possibly be open, and not be open at all to a coalition with Bibi or Buji. After the Syriza/Independent Greeks coalition, and other oddball governments, I would be curious to see how open or closed the coalition possibilities are
Take a look at his latest posting.
Looks like Marzel has been banned by the Election Committee 17-16. I wonder if the Supreme Court will reverse it. One thing I wonder is Kahanism has been banned since Meir Kahane was disqualified in 1988. Marzel proclaims himself a neo-Kahanist. How then is he allowed to run in the first place? Is there a meaningful distinction between Kach and Otzma ideologically? Or was the disqualifying issue with the Kach Party the fact that they had a paramilitary element? Otzma certainly does not.
Marzel was allowed to run in the last election (he was #3 on Otzma L’Yisrael). It will be the same this time.
It would seem that there is a simple rule. If you call for Arabs with citizenship to be expelled, then you are disqualified. If you call for Arabs without citizenship (as in the territories) to be expelled, you are not. I think Marzal has only called for certain Arabs to be expelled, based on their behavior. Of course, I’m not sure the Supreme Court has any rules.