Panels conducted a poll 690 people with a 3.6% margin of error that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on Feb 10 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
23 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
23 [18] Likud
12 [20] Yesh Atid
12 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] United Arab List
09 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
05 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
68 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
52 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
What I do not get is how can these kind of polling result appear continuously? Are the pollsters trying to destroy BY? And if it is so, what is done to counteract this? Or are ALL pollsters simply wrong (bad sampling, wrong questions)?
I think the strength of BY is being under represented and I am inclined not to take any of these polls too seriously at present, some parties are jumping all over the place.
The top 2 seem to be jumping between 23-27 and swapping the lead, and this often day by day in different polls. In no other country in the world does such polling absurdities take place.
And what is more, commentators present them as seriously factual. I am not sure how they manage to do that with a straight face.
A good thing none of these pollsters and so called experts are projecting themselves as financial experts or there would be many ruined investors on the stock market.
Whether you are left/right/centre or anything else, anyone taking the actual numbers of mandates projection seriously at present will end up with ulcers.
One thought, let us assume that the mandates for BY and Yachad are correct, does this suggest Yachad are attracting voters from BY and should BY therefor go for these voters
Yes. It seems that Yachad is taking BY-votes (otherwise I guess Yachad would not be at 5 seats). I think Bennett can right now really afford to play more hardline – but it can easily be done by Ariel, Struk etc. being more active (as I would guess Tekuma voters will want to have Struk, Smotrich and so on in Knesset.
Another thing then. I guess it could be an idea for Bennett to try to get the hareidi parties to agree to form a joint (negotiating?) bloc after the elections. That at least will give Bennett more strengh against Likud in coalition negotiations.
I doubt the Haredim are interested in partnering as a bloc with Bayit Yehudi for negotiations after the elections.
Two reasons: One, you underestimate the sense of betrayal and distrust of Bennett among Haredim for his alliance with Yesh Atid (a party that turned out after the election to be anti-Haredi and little more) that got them shut out of the government. Two, even non-Haredim have been questioning Bayit Yehudi’s religious credentials lately–Bennett has been turning the party from a Religious Zionist party into more of a secular settlers’ party.
StateOfTheUnknown,
Yes, there are more secular right-winger in BY than before. But what is the problem with that, if these ex-Likud, ex-YB voters help the REAL right-religious bloc take the lead over Likud? Then the religious (in general, various degree of religiosity) could get the first “real” (if you want to call it) religious PM. And it is hard to see (at least right now) any other right-winger outside the Likud being able to at some stage form a govt. other than Bennett (sorry, the truth might hurt a bit!). This could happen if ALL the religious forces could agree to cooperate on a wider scale.
But speaking of the religiosity of BY(-Tekuma): is Eli Ben-Dahan secular? is former IDF chief Rabbi secular? is Motti Yogev secular? is Uri Ariel secular? is Orit Struk secular? is Bezalel Smotrich secular? is Avi Wortzman secular? Ans so on… Last time I checked, the answer to all these questions was NO. And take for example Ayelet Shaked. She is secular for sure. BUT still she has fought for the interests of religious people, she has fought against a two-state solution, …
So: most are still religious, but those who are not STILL fight for religious and religious zionist values.
Seriously? Occam’s Razor: If every polling agency is showing the same phenomenon (BY’s decline) using different methodologies then BY’s decline is probably true. Yachad might increase the overall number of right-wing MKs, but the party probably hurts BY specifically. Yoni Chetboun is a BY defector and his opposition the Draft Bill probably tapped into the feelings of a certain percentage of BY voters who don’t want criminal sanctions against Haredi. So that’s Bayit Yehudi MK#13 potentially going to Yachad. Marzel scratches the “Bennett is a leftist” itch of the hard right, including some members of the National Union faction within BY, so that might be MK#14 going to Yachad/Otzma. Some BY voters might be leaning to Likud to prevent the Zionist Union from being the largest party or they might want to ensure that Likud’s popular right-wing candidate at the 20th slot gets elected (Hotovely). Defections to Likud might cost BY seat #15. It could just be the election isn’t for another month and they’ll trickle back after they’ve weighed their options. Israel voters are often late deciders.
These are indeed very plausible suggestions and I do see the Yachad / Marzel list as more of a threat to BY then anyone else, but only a day or so ago we had a poll showing BY at 14 which was up from previous ones and the expert Professor Fuchs claiming more or less they were on the up again.
Your analyses is interesting and if you have the time perhaps you could apply your thoughts to the shifts and bounces between the top two.
I am afraid you are kind of right.
But I guess Struk should ask NU voters if they are serious about not wanting her in Knesset.
Ayelet Shaked, Ronen Shoval, Yinon Magal and others should ask right-wing secular voters (going to Likud) if they really wants to see Avi Dichter (the leftist/centrist) in Knesset rather than Shoval and so on.
Anat Roth should ask disillusioned centrists (going for YB, Kulanu, YA, Labor (?)) if they still wants to hurt themselves by voting for the same old failed policies (she is in a good position to say “Been there, done that – time for something new”).
A disappointing showing for Bayit Yehudi might end up being a blessing in disguise for the party. I know a lot of people think Bennett has singlehandedly energized the party, but lately I see a lot of mismanagement on his part, and the abnormally long honeymoon is over and his constituents are seeing it too and not overlooking it like they were just a few weeks ago. The party just might be better off without him in charge, and a lousy showing next month just might bring that about.
StateofTheUnknown,
I do not understand your position regarding Bennett. Pls, tell me what other person than Bennett do you think can have a chance to become PM, while still being chairman of BY.
Why would you NOT vote for BY (even if you despise (?) Bennett as leader)? What do have against Orit Struk, Motti Yogev, Uri Ariel, former IDF chief Rabbi Ronski, Nir Orbach, Eli Ben-Dahan, Bezalel Smotrich, Avi Wortzman, Uri Orbach, etc. Have these fine individuals in some way FAILED YOUR EXPECTATIONS?
Replying to your comment below –
“Is Eli Ben-Dahan secular? is former IDF chief Rabbi secular?”
Personally religious, but politically secular, defined as “denoting attitudes, activities, or other things that have no religious or spiritual basis.”
Anyone who seeks separation of shul and state is, by definition, politically secular.
BUT they do not support same-sex marriage, abortions, etc. – contrary to many likudniks such as Yaalon,…..
How is showing BY gaining a seat from its current standings in the Knesset “trying to destroy it”?
Hi and many thanks Will your site be offering any “guesstimates” about how either major bloc look to get to the magic 61?
Thanks again, Thom
Poll that has not been included for some reason.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/1-in-4-israelis-still-undecided-but-more-of-them-leaning-toward-herzog/
And this is one of the polls I was referring to when i said above.
“The top 2 seem to be jumping between 23-27 and swapping the lead, and this often day by day in different polls. In no other country in the world does such polling absurdities take place.”
We are asked to accept that a lot of voters are like frogs in a pond jumping to the left, to the right and back and forth and back and forth, perhaps they are, me I am a sceptic, something is not right here.
Its so absurd that the only thing I take seriously from that poll is there are still a lot of undecided.
Other countries have even greater polling absurdities to worry about. A lot of this could be statistical noise though. The bloc math seems pretty stable too – that poll just shows a 67/53 split.
do anyone know if there is an election quiz in english somewhere?
As an outsider, how much weight should I give to each leader’s statements on possible coalition configurations? I noticed some of the language was a bit wishy washy. Which makes sense – I’d think that each party would want to have a clear message on who they would form a coalition with to attract votes on election day, but would want to leave room to backtrack a bit to strengthen their bargaining position afterwards. Canada doesn’t have much of a history of coalition governments, but even then there’s been a tendency for parties to rule out coalitions before the election and backtrack immediately after. Not that any of that makes me think a Herzog led coalition is likely.
Also, re: the United Arab List – do you think they are likely to backtrack on not voting to confirm a Herzog led coalition? It strikes me that if their absentionism creates a Likud/right win by “default”, they may be punished by their voters. It’s essentially what happened to the separatists here.
First, this is a great site – thank you.
Second, I would suggest that this site could be made much more useful (imho) if you could also provide links to all the parties’ web sites (preferably in English, since this is an English page) where I could learn about their platforms and their main goals for the upcoming elections.