Smith conducted a poll that was broadcast by Reshet Bet Radio on Jan 30 2015. The poll was conducted the day before.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
26 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
26 [18] Likud
15 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] United Arab List
09 [10] Shas
08 [20] Yesh Atid
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
00 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun) – Before Marzel joined
69 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
51 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)
* Note: Kadima Leader Akrem Hasoon who replaced Shaul Mofaz is now running on the Kahlon list.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Jeremy,
when will you publish the lists and (some) comments? After Shabbat? If there is no more to say now, then Shabbat Shalom.
When we had a landline, we got a polling call several times a week during election season. Since we ditched our landline, we have never gotten a seker call, i.e., on our cell phones. I would think, therefore, that these polls would not be accurate to the extent that many people, particularly the under-30 crowd, don’t have landlines.
HI – I Think Yishai and marzel is a game changer. They will pull votes from Shas and lapid. Im quite sure next polls will show the right way ahead overall. I would put the chances of BIBI being the next PM at 75% right now
I kind of (much) doubt that Yishai+Marzel will take votes away from a (leftist-)centrist like Yair Lapid.
Lapid is a centrist group. Also shas can easily join Labor, Yishai cannot. In 2 weeks shas will be close to being below the threshold I feel
Wrong – they won’t pull any more votes from Shas, the pull of Shas votes to Yishai stopped a while back. This list is not the sort to attract anymore from the Shas core. This list may be more of a problem for BY.
Could you post sample size/margin of error with each poll. Also, going forward, can you indicate when there’s any change in methodology, so when X has a series of polls, we can assess how comparable they might be over time?
Thanks for this great service!
The interesting development outside the polls is Bibi’s two center right choices for the list. Quietly he is regaining control of Likud. Should Rivlin have the opportunity to push a national unity government the new Likud list gives a certain cover to both Bibi and Buji to accept. Likud/Zionist union/Kulanu/Yesh Atid/Shas and UTJ provides ideological balance, diplomatic moderation and a strong social component.
Yesh Atid and Charedi parties are not compatible.
Is there any tactical voting in Israel i.e. Likud voters voting for Yishai so that they can pass the threshold?!
It’s possible. Bibi desperately wants Yishai to succeed, as the loss of 3 right wing seats would hurt him.
Not reasonable thinking – any Likudniks voting for any other party results in the loss of seats for Bibi. Bibi does not need Yishai to succeed ,the right religious block have a clear majority with or without Yishai
I’m new to the Israel election process. If the Zionist camp wins the most seats, let’s say beating Likud by 1, do they have enough support among the other parties to form the next government?
The short answer is no.
They have potential partners in Left Wing Meretz, centrist Yesh Atid, and perhaps the new party Koolanu and Yisrael Beytenu (formerly right wing, now centrist). All those parties together are still under 61 seats in all polls.
On March 18th the smaller parties will look at the results and seek to maximize their benefits. There is an advantage in being the first party to cut a deal. Kahlon can be a kingmaker either way and Shas and UTJ likewise. All three BTW lean right but all three also compete for funding with the major constituency of Bayit Yehudi. All have reason to keep Bennett out of the government. It is for this reason that if the difference between Likud and the Zionist camp is one or two seats they will recommend a unity government as a first option, and if the numbers are there quickly negotiate left for a better deal than they would get from Bibi. In addition, Kahlon can’t fence sit forever without losing votes so he must reviewing the polls declare his preferences around the first week in March.
I like Avi 2’s thinking here, it’s quite plausible if its a tight vote between the two major parties and then depending on how the smaller parties fare .