This is the poll that many KnessetJeremy readers have been waiting for – extensive internal Shas polling.
Panels conducted a poll for Knesset Channel that was broadcast on Oct 6 2014.
Who is more suitable to lead Shas in next elections?
Shas voters: 39% Don’t know, 38% Yishai, 23% Deri
General public: 52% Don’t know, 33% Yishai, 15% Deri
Who represents the direction of Rabbi Ovadia Yosef?
Shas voters: 37% Don’t know, 26% Yishai, 27% Deri
Do you believe Deri’s statements that he wants Yishai in the leadership of Shas?
Shas voters: 44% No, 28% Don’t know, 28% Yes
General public: 63% No, 24% Don’t know, 13% Yes
Is there a place for Shas as a party following Rav Ovadia Yosef’s death?
General public: 43% No, 36% Yes, 21% Don’t know
From a diplomatic perspective where should Shas be on the political map?
Shas voters: 65% Right, 35% Left
What should be the main focus of Shas?
55% Poverty, 18% Yeshiva Students Draft, 15% Fighting Sephardi discrimination, 5% Diplomatic issues
Should Eli Yishai leave Shas and form a new party?
Shas voters: 89% No, 8% Don’t know, 3% Yes
Seats: Shas with Yishai as leader – 9 seats, Shas with Deri as leader – 7 seats.
With Yishai Shas is bigger than UTJ, with Deri Shas is smaller than UTJ.
Strange poll, and perhaps agenda-driven? Some questions only Shas voters are asked, some only the general public, and one it doesn’t say?
There are more questions, I only published the questions that were broadcast. Great majority of the questions (the ones that were broadcast and those that were not) are in line with private polling that I have seen on the subject.
I believe in previous posts I gave an idea of where the Shas voter base is in terms of the private polling data I have seen. You guys would remember better than me.
I was referring to the fact that there appeared to be selectivity in whom was asked what. But you say this was not a result of the polling but of the broadcasting. I have often commented here that I would like to see polling of who exactly votes for Shas, as it didn’t seem likely it was even majority Chareidi. (The Chareidi population didn’t double overnight.) I would be interested in a repeat summary.
When you are on TV you have a limited amount of time so you focus on the interesting numbers. Is there a point in pointing out that over 90% of Shas voters answered yes to “Is there a place for Shas as a party following Rav Ovadia Yosef’s death?” Just because they say there is a place doesn’t mean they will vote for them…
Private polling differs on the number of Haredi Sephardim voting for the party, I will say it is at least 4 seats. Since the 1990s Shas has seen a majority of their voting public as traditional Jews (Masorati) but that is changing Post-Rav Ovadia.
It probably won’t change their strategy in the upcoming election whenever that is. The Council of Sage’s attitude might be “7 seats with Deri instead of 9 with Yishai? Okay. 7 seats it is. We’ll follow Yosef’s directives.” However, if Shas has such a poor showing I wonder if Deri would magnanimously “offer” his resignation after the next election. However, he really doesn’t strike me as the type who would fall on his sword even if Shas loses 40% of its support.
I don’t see Deri falling on the sword. Deri has majority on Council so it doesn’t matter what polls say. What does matter is MKs.