Maagar Mochot conducted a poll that was broadcast by Channel 1 on August 29th 2014.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
26 [19] Likud
17 [12] Bayit Yehudi
14 [15] Labor
12 [12] Yisrael Beitenu
10 [11] Shas
08 [19] Yesh Atid
08 [–] New Kahlon Party
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Meretz
04 [06] Movement
07 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al, Balad
01 [02] Kadima
80 [61] Right-Religious
40 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold. Although Kadima (1 seat) would be under old threshold as well.
* MK Shama (Likud) resignation has lowered Likud from 20 seats to 19 seats. MK Miller (Yisrael Beitenu) who took the seat raises his party from 11 seats to 12 seats.
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: I’ll add these results to my previous post & that will be reflected in the analysis there.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al, Balal have 11 MK’s, not 4.
Thanks for noticing the typo, I fixed it.
That sometimes happens to me when there is more than one party in the same bracket.
this poll is really strange:
1. Bayit Yehudi getting even 17 seats when Shas (exceptionally) gets (as high as) 10 seats
2. arab parties together getting 7 seats – really LOW
3. Kadima getting 1 seat – that is not even accepted with the 2%-threshold
BY at 17 w/Shas @ 10 explains why Likud is 26.
7 seats is too low for the 3 parties.
No good reason to show results of a 1 seat party.
is not 26 for Likud then still too high?
26 is lowest Likud polled post-op
or BY takes more from Yesh Atid?
BY also takes away from YA, some of those seats moved over a little while after the election.
Jeremy: Don’t Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al, Balad have 11 today?
Yeah. There was typo in the email that was sent out that Miguel caught and it was promptly changed on the website.
is that why Kadima got 1 seat??
No real good reason why Kadima has 1% in this poll. That is under the old threshold as well.
I’d call new elections ASAP. BY’s rise seems to be real and IB’s splitting from Likud has helped the right generally even if Lieberman was not personally enhanced.
As for future coalitions:
Likud-Bayit Yehudi-Israel Beitinu-Yesh Atid= 63+Kahlon= 71. (the most free market coalition possible, probably less so with Kahlon)
Likud-Bayit Yehudi-Israel Beitinu-Shas-UTJ= 73 (the most right-wing on security)
Likud-IB-Shas-UTJ-Kahlon= 64+ remnants of Movement= 68 (the “Open Revolt in Likud but something Netanyahu would probably consider anyway” coalition)
Netanyahu will want to continue economic liberalization above all else. That makes a coalition with the anti-capitalist Shas and UTJ problematic unless they cut their usual deals. But BY has cabinet positions Shas typically wants like Housing and Religious Affairs and they can’t just dump BY since it is a strong supporter of Likud’s economic platform. Chances are, BY will emerge from the next election with added strength, possibly enough to demand another portfolio, and it won’t be keen to surrender Housing, Religious Affairs or Industry/Labor/Trade/Economy (or whatever it’s called now). They might give up Pensioner’s Affairs, assuming the position will even exist in the 33rd Knesset, for something like Immigrant Absorption. There will only be 4 Deputy Ministries next time also. UTJ has never held a cabinet position but usually stakes out those deputy spots. And no Ministers without Portfolio next time. In other words, putting the draft issue aside, will there actually be anything the Haredi want to induce them to join a coalition?
Haredim want money for their causes, as does every party. You can’t fund yeshivas and fund 0% VAT for middle-class housing. Overall Kahlon goes well with UTJ & Shas, all are socialist economically. Bennett, Liberman & Lapid come from a different school of thought, one that is closer to Netanyahu.
only problem with Likud+BY+YB+YA is that Lapid could pull the plug on the government becuase of settlement building, lack of progress on the peace process