Midgam conducted two polls broadcast by Channel 10 on April 17 2014.
The first poll added Kachalon as an option, has Likud & Beitenu running together and decided to run Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad together on a joint list.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
30 [31] Likud Beitenu
16 [15] Labor
12 [–] Kachalon Party
11 [12] Bayit Yehudi
10 [19] Yesh Atid
09 [11] Shas
08 [06] Meretz
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [07] Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad
04 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
01 [02] Kadima
58 [61] Right-Religious
50 [59] Center-Left-Arab
The second poll ran Kachalon & Beitenu together and decided to run Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad together on a joint list.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
23 [11] Yisrael Beitenu + Kachalon
19 [20] Likud
18 [15] Labor
10 [19] Yesh Atid
10 [12] Bayit Yehudi
10 [11] Shas
08 [06] Meretz
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [07] Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad
04 [04] Hadash
03 [06] Movement
00 [02] Kadima
70 [61] Right-Religious
50 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
why does the first poll summary equal 108? (58 and 50)?
It comes out to 120. I just left kachalon seats out of blocs.
so will Lieberman and Kachalon change place between PM and FM? It sure could happen, especially when it is clear that Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu will not run together and Lieberman’s comments about Kachalon and hoping to cooperate with him in the future.
Jeremy, what do you believe are the chances for a Lieberman-Kachalon list?
I don’t think chances for Liberman-Kahalon list are so high, I think it is more like a Liberman dream.
Besides Kachalon will most likely want to be Finance Minister, not Foreign Minister. I doubt he can pull off the seats necessary for Prime Minister.
I will say this, Kachalon has a certain charm about him, he was the most popular minister last term in almost every poll and every Israeli thanks him for their cellphone bill getting cheaper. If he puts together the right list and runs the right campaign – he can easily repeat Lapid’s surprise 19 seat feat. The Joe Liberman type right-wing on national security/defense and left-wing on social and economic issues has a higher ceiling in Israel than it does in US. Kachalon could just screw it up though like many center parties of past… The problem with center parties as I like to say is that in the Knesset you have to vote “for” or “against”, there is no “center” button…
Assuming the numbers above hold through election day, do you think it is more likely that the next coalition will be straight right/religious with Likud-Beitinu-Bayit Yehudi-Kachalon-Shas-UTJ or a coalition resembling the current one with Likud-Beitinu-Bayit Yehudi-Kachalon-Yesh Atid-Movement? I can’t really see any other realistic coalition possibilities.
It seems almost insulting to the voters if the right/religious ends up with a solid 68-70 seats and Bibi still forms a coalition with center/left-wing parties. Is there any indication what type of coalition Bibi, Lieberman and Kachalon prefer? I assume Bennett prefers Lapid and Livni in opposition next time.
In each one of Netanyahu’s 3 terms he chose to bring in someone from the left (Third Way, Labor/Independence, Livni & Lapid). I don’t see why he wouldn’t attempt at bringing in another “fig” leaf if he gets a 4th. The only way he can do that is if enough parties nominate him as PM to the President. He only has that going on in the right-religious bloc, so he is tied to them in a strong way.
The Haredim are easy coalition partners, I expect BB would invite them back over going with a weakened Lapid. A coalition of Likud-Beitenu-Kachalon-Bayit Yehudi-Shas-UTJ would be likely. Things will change though. I expect Shas to split and I also expect the Livni Party to fall apart. We still don’t know how Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad are going to deal with new threshold in terms of merging. We also don’t know who will be on Kahalon’s list. Who will Kadima merge with?
Things are still up in the air, I don’t expect anything to stabilize anytime soon.
Well, of course an allience with Lieberman could hurt Kachalon with “his” voter base (some of Labor, Likud, Yesh Atid, ..(anyone else)). But maybe Kachalon would like to “beat up” the Likud nationalists that has, according to him taken over Likud, and what better way to do that than joining together with Yisrael beiteinu (if the first paragraph’s point is not strong enough).
Lets for discussion’s sake hope that Livni’s party to some extent has “left the building”. Combined with a (severely?) weakened Yesh Atid maybe BB has to form a government with YB, Kachalon, BY, Shas (in parts) and UTJ.
One of the reasons that Kachalon didn’t run for re-election supposedly was because he didn’t expect to get the #1 spot in the primaries because certain groups were not going to support him. My understanding is that many of those groups were supporting more “nationalist” candidates (the first-term back benchers that found themselves with a big bump in the latest primary). I would also be frustrated if I was the most popular minister in every poll and certain groups “hijacked” the party to push me out. I think it is more about the groups than their positions on a real level. Kahalon won’t go for a Liberman alliance because it serves Liberman more than it serves Kahalon. At least part of Livni’s party should merge with Labor, afterall #2 & #3 Mitzna & Peretz are former Labor Chairmen.
well, at least I would like to see a Likud-Bayit Yehudi alliance in the next election. let Lieberman run alone. Would there be any chance of Kachalon joining forces with Lapid?
anything and everything is possible in Israeli politics. Likud-Bayit alliance is unlikely given BB-Bennett relationship.
yes, but it would be possible if Bibi saw that his chances of becomeing next PM would be threatened.