Midgam conducted two polls of 500 people with a margin of error of 3.9% on April 9-10 and was published by Yediot Achronot on April 14 2014.
The polls used the new threshold of 3.25%.
The first poll added Kachalon as an option and decided to run Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad together on a joint list.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
29 [31] Likud Beitenu
16 [15] Labor
12 [12] Bayit Yehudi
11 [–] Kachalon Party
10 [19] Yesh Atid
10 [06] Meretz
09 [11] Shas
08 [07] Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
00 [02] Kadima
57 [61] Right-Religious
52 [59] Center-Left-Arab
The second poll ran Likud and Beitenu as different parties, added Kachalon as an option and decided to run Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad together on a joint list.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
22 [20] Likud
16 [15] Labor
11 [12] Bayit Yehudi
10 [19] Yesh Atid
10 [11] Yisrael Beitenu
10 [06] Meretz
10 [–] Kachalon Party
08 [11] Shas
08 [07] Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
00 [02] Kadima
58 [61] Right-Religious
52 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: This is the first poll of the Knesset term where Likud Beitenu running together comes out under 30 seats. Seven parties in double digits. Kachalon is running in the low double digits in the results of every polling company. The difference of opinion seems to come on where the votes are coming from. The raising of the threshold does not seem to make such an impact in this poll.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Well, does not like the poll at all, but lets say that the race for nr. 3 is really tight.
intersting: when reporting on this they write much wrong; gives the wrong impression if not familiar with the poll
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0%2C7340%2CL-4510077%2C00.html
If Kachalon clumps with the right (he’s made left wing statements decrying the “extreme right” within Likud) then his entry is very positive for the right. I’m not sure he’s a socialist so much as a populist. He did open up telecoms to increased competition which helped consumers and reduced electricity fees for the poor; those policies aren’t necessarily hostile to Likud or Bayit Yehudi. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if his security positions go the way of his economic views. It seems that politicians only drift leftward so I’m not holding my breath that he’s still a nationalist.
As usual, it looks like 2 likely coalitions:
A right-religious alliance of 67-68 seats. It could pass a structural changes involving the judiciary but the badly needed liberalization of a basically socialist economy might be slowed by Shas, UTJ and Kachalon. In the unlikely event that Likud wants to make permanent changes regarding Judea and Samaria (for instance the annexation of Area C) then this is the coalition to do it.
Or if the Haredi stay out: a Likud-Beitenu-Bayit Yehudi-Kachalon-Yesh Atid and maybe Movement coalition of 67 or so. This would be a fairly pro-market coalition but I can’t imagine this would be productive in other important areas. I wonder if the Haredi are going keep staying in opposition. If their non-negotiable demand is to repeal the Draft Law then they must realize that that’s never going to happen- right wing coalition or left-wing. The Tal Law was thrown out by the court and the new law is probably as generous as it’s going to get. If they really stick to their guns then they are looking at permanent opposition like the Arab parties and I don’t see how that’s a good idea.
yeh, lets see how long the hareidim are going to be “angry” about Bayit Yehudi’s actions…
Kachalon agreeing to annexing area C (i do not believe Bibi would be ready to go for it) – big big question mark
Any Netanyahu-led coalition will maintain the current status quo. As bad as the status quo is, many look at it as the devil they know. Plus a lot of them figure “Why be needlessly provocative by declaring something that’s already slowly occurring?” Maybe in 20-25 years when there’s 1 million Jews living in area C: 360,000 Jews in Area C (not including E Jerusalm) at 4.2% growth annually compounded for 25 years= 1 million. This of course assumes that there won’t be another large wave of aliyah (from France and Eastern Europe) which would accelerate it. Until then I think the most Bennett can hope for is getting some more of the day-to-decisions in Area C out of the Defense Minister’s hands. The settlers are growing faster than all other sections of the Israeli public (even the Haredi) that there will be a day when they are such a powerful voting bloc that a government will have no choice. They already make up 30% of the armed forces. It may seem like a long time to wait but the period of Judges lasted over 300 years.