Last week’s polling continued to reinforce the central dynamic of the current race: the contest is no longer between a dominant incumbent and a fragmented opposition, but between two competing governing coalitions whose viability depends heavily on bloc arithmetic and turnout efficiency.
The most consequential thematic signal comes from the additional-question data, particularly Channel 13’s question on Gaza reconstruction. A clear majority of Israelis (53%) view the emerging involvement of Turkey and Qatar in Gaza as an Israeli failure, compared with only 25% who reject that framing. This is not a marginal result. It suggests that the “day after” debate is already hardening into a political vulnerability, with Israelis increasingly judging post-war governance not as a distant diplomatic question but as a test of competence, leverage, and national credibility. Gaza’s reconstruction is becoming a domestic political issue, not merely a security one.
Bloc Trends
The Maariv poll is particularly striking because it shows Bennett reaching 61 seats without relying on cooperation with the Arab bloc. That result points to a plausible governing coalition built entirely within the Jewish-Zionist arena, without outside support.
By contrast, both the Direct Polls survey (i24NEWS) and Filber’s Channel 14 poll depict the opposite governing reality: Netanyahu’s bloc not only holds, but expands decisively, reaching 62 seats in Direct Polls and 65 in Filber. These two polls remain clear outliers, both in magnitude and in their governing implications, but they underscore the continued divergence between pollsters.
Eyes on the Threshold
Four parties consistently hover below the electoral barrier across multiple polls: Blue & White, Miluimnikim, Religious Zionism, and Balad. The significance is structural. These parties collectively represent several mandates’ worth of potentially wasted votes, and their success or failure could swing bloc outcomes by 3–6 seats. In a tight contest, a single party slipping under the threshold can determine whether a coalition forms or collapses.
The most notable development this week is Balad crossing the threshold in the Channel 13 poll, where it receives four seats. Even if this result is not replicated elsewhere, it highlights volatility within the Arab sector and the possibility that fragmentation could reshape both the size and cohesion of the Arab bloc.
What to Expect Next
A brief note on timing: this post is arriving about a week late due to my reserve service, but the political calendar did not pause.
The major looming event during this polling window was the showdown ahead of the first-reading budget vote, which ultimately passed on Wednesday. As the budget process continues, upcoming polls will likely reflect not only voter preferences but also perceptions of coalition stability and governing durability.
Poll #
Broadcaster / Publisher
Pollster
Fieldwork Date
Sample Size
Margin of Error
1
Maariv
Lazar/Panels
21–22 Jan 2026
501
±4.4%
2
Channel 12
Midgam
22 Jan 2026
501
±4.4%
3
Channel 13
Maagar Mochot
20 Jan 2026
—
—
4
Zman Yisrael
Tatika
21–22 Jan 2026
500
±4.4%
5
i24NEWS
Direct Polls
21–22 Jan 2026
559
±4.1%
6
Channel 14
Filber
22 Jan 2026
503
—
Table 2 — Party Seat Distribution (All Polls)
Party
Maariv
Channel 12
Channel 13
Zman Yisrael
i24NEWS
Channel 14
Likud (Netanyahu)
25
25
25
25
31
34
Bennett 2026
23
22
23
18
16
10
Shas (Deri)
8
9
10
10
9
10
Democrats (Golan)
9
11
9
9
10
10
Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman)
9
9
9
10
9
8
Yashar (Eisenkot)
11
9
7
7
9
7
Otzma (Ben Gvir)
9
9
9
6
9
7
UTJ
7
8
7
8
9
9
Yesh Atid (Lapid)
9
8
8
8
4
5
Ra’am (Abbas)
5
5
4
6
6
5
Hadash–Ta’al
5
5
5
5
4
6
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)
2.0%
2.9%
2.6%
4
4
5
Blue & White (Gantz)
2.8%
1.7%
2.0%
4
2.5%
4
Balad
1.9%
1.1%
4
0
2.8%
2.4%
Miluimnikim (Hendel)
2.8%
2.7%
2.0%
0
1.8%
—
Bloc
Maariv
Channel 12
Channel 13
Zman Yisrael
i24NEWS
Channel 14
Bennett Bloc
61
59
56
56
48
44
Netanyahu Bloc
49
51
51
53
62
65
Arab Bloc
10
10
13
11
10
11
Additional Questions:
Maariv — Prime Minister Suitability Ranking
Candidate
% Support
Netanyahu
37%
Bennett
21%
None of these
14%
Eisenkot
12%
Lapid
8%
Don’t Know
7%
Channel 12 — Head-to-Head Prime Minister Suitability Ranking Matchups
Netanyahu vs Bennett
Response
%
Netanyahu more suitable
40%
Bennett more suitable
37%
Don’t Know
23%
Netanyahu vs Eisenkot
Response
%
Netanyahu more suitable
42%
Don’t Know
29%
Eisenkot more suitable
29%
Netanyahu vs Lapid
Response
%
Netanyahu more suitable
44%
Don’t Know
32%
Lapid more suitable
24%
Channel 13 — Gaza Reconstruction + Gantz’s Political Future
Turkey/Qatar involvement seen as an Israeli failure?
Response
%
Yes, a failure
53%
No, not a failure
25%
Don’t Know
22%
Should Gantz retire from politics?
Response
%
Yes, retire
48%
No, run again
29%
Don’t Know
23%
Channel 14 — Prime Minister Suitability Ranking
Candidate
% Support
Netanyahu
54%
Bennett
19%
Eisenkot
13%
Lapid
6%
Lieberman
4%
Gantz
4%
Don’t Know
0%
Note: The surveys summarized here were conducted during the week of January 20–22. Updated polling covering the January 28–31 polling will follow tomorrow.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 