Issue Trends

This week’s polling reinforces a central dynamic in prime minister suitability. One matchup stands out: Bennett at 35% against Netanyahu’s 38%. It is the most crystallized contest, with both the narrowest gap and the lowest share of undecided voters. By contrast, Lapid’s 24% trails not only Netanyahu but also the undecided bloc, underscoring his difficulty in consolidating the alternative lane. Eisenkot, after peaking last week, shows renewed softness, losing ground to Netanyahu while nearly one-third of voters remain uncommitted.

A related undercurrent is the continued erosion within the Netanyahu Bloc. Data from Channel 12 show that a substantial share of former bloc voters are no longer parked safely within it: over 40% are now flowing to Bennett 2026, with another quarter undecided. This leakage helps explain why the bloc’s ceiling remains constrained outside the Channel 14 universe.

Bloc Trends

Bloc arithmetic continues to diverge sharply by pollster. Across four of the five polls, the Bennett Bloc consistently clusters in the high 50s to low 60s, often within striking distance of a governing majority, while the Netanyahu Bloc generally ranges in the low 50s. Filber remains the clear outlier, showing a decisive Netanyahu Bloc advantage (66–43), reinforcing its distinct methodological and ideological profile. Meanwhile, the Arab Bloc holds steady at roughly 9–11 seats across all polls, functioning as a fixed variable rather than a swing factor.

Eyes on the Threshold

The threshold zone is once again the most consequential arena. Religious Zionism, Blue & White, Miluimnikim, and Balad repeatedly flirt with or fall below the threshold, depending on the poll. Small movements here carry outsized bloc consequences. The Maariv scenario test illustrates this clearly: when Gantz and Hendel exit and Smotrich consolidates with Ben Gvir, the seat changes are modest at the party level but meaningful in aggregate. This reinforces a familiar pattern: the election will not be decided by headline parties, but by who survives the bottom tier.

Against this backdrop, the Gantz question becomes less theoretical and more strategic. With a plurality of voters, across both coalition and opposition, favoring his exit from politics, and only limited support for independent continuation, the data suggest that further fragmentation serves no bloc interest. Whether through withdrawal or a clear alignment choice, indecision now carries a higher systemic cost than any single move he could make.

What to Expect Next

Expect intensified messaging aimed less at ideological persuasion and more at reassurance—competence, governability, and threshold discipline. Parties hovering near the cutoff will face growing pressure to merge, withdraw, or clearly signal where their voters should land.

Poll #Broadcaster / PublisherPollsterFieldwork DatesSample SizeMargin of Error
Poll 1MaarivLazar/PanelsJan 14–15, 2026501±4.4%
Poll 2Channel 12MidgamJan 15, 2026504±4.4%
Poll 3Yisrael HayomKantarJan 14, 2026600±4.0%
Poll 4Zman YisraelTatikaJan 14–15, 2026500±4.4%
Poll 5Channel 14FilberJan 15, 2026604—
Party / PollMaarivChannel 12Yisrael HayomZman YisraelChannel 14
Likud2626272735
Bennett 20262222231911
Shas88101011
Democrats10129811
Yisrael Beitenu8881010
Otzma Yehudit109977
Yesh Atid99895
Yashar118976
United Torah Judaism (UTJ)78789
Raam45566
Hadash–Taal55555
Religious Zionism2.6%2.9%2.9%04
Balad2.1%1.7%1.9%02.1%
Blue & White2.3%2.4%3%42.8%
Miluimnikim2.6%1.4%2.7%00
Bennett Bloc6059575743
Netanyahu Bloc5151535266
Arab Bloc910101111
PollQuestion CategoryQuestion / ScenarioResult
MaarivElectoral ScenarioIf Gantz and Hendel do not run, and Smotrich runs with Ben GvirResults in seats: Ben Gvir +2, Eisenkot +2, Bennett +1, Likud −1, Shas −1, Yisrael Beitenu −1, Yesh Atid −2
Channel 12PM SuitabilityNetanyahu vs BennettNetanyahu 38%, Bennett 35%, Don’t know 27%
Channel 12PM SuitabilityNetanyahu vs LapidNetanyahu 40%, Don’t know 36%, Lapid 24%
Channel 12PM SuitabilityNetanyahu vs EisenkotNetanyahu 41%, Don’t know 32%, Eisenkot 27%
Channel 12Trend NoteWeek-over-week change (PM suitability)Bennett +1% vs Netanyahu; Lapid −2% vs Netanyahu; Eisenkot −3% vs Netanyahu
Channel 12Leadership FutureWhat should Benny Gantz do? (General sample)Retire 42%; Join opposition 19%; Don’t know 19%; Join Likud 13%; Run independently 7%
Channel 12Leadership FutureWhat should Benny Gantz do? (Coalition voters)Retire 39%; Join Likud 25%
Channel 12Leadership FutureWhat should Benny Gantz do? (Opposition voters)Retire 47%; Join opposition 37%
Channel 12Vote TransfersWhere former Netanyahu-bloc voters are goingBennett 2026 42.2%; Undecided 25%; Yisrael Beitenu 14.1%; Yashar 14.1%; Miluimnikim 4.6%
Channel 14PM SuitabilityWho is most suitable for Prime Minister?Netanyahu 53%; Bennett 19%; Eisenkot 11%; Lapid 9%; Lieberman 6%; Gantz 2%