Issue Trends
Across all five polls from last week, one pattern is now unmistakable: Naftali Bennett has consolidated the opposition lane, while the rest of the opposition field continues to fragment.
In the four mainstream pollsters (Maariv, Channel 12, Channel 13, Zman Yisrael), Bennett is either tied with Likud or running within striking distance. His party ranges from 21 to 24 seats, while Likud ranges from 25 to 28. This is not the pattern of a dominant incumbent, rather it is the pattern of a contested leadership race.
Channel 14 stands apart, giving Likud 35 and Bennett just 13, but that poll is the outlier rather than the trend. In the other four polls, Bennett is effectively the alternative prime minister in waiting.
This is reinforced by the only leadership question asked this week. In Channel 14’s suitability question, Netanyahu leads with 53%, but Bennett is second at 26%, more than double Eisenkot and far ahead of Lapid, Lieberman, or Gantz. Even in a right-leaning sample, Bennett is the only opposition figure who registers as a serious governing option.
The issue environment is also turning sharply negative for the coalition. In Maariv, 68% of Israelis fear political violence before the next election. That is not a sign of political stability, it is a warning that the public sees polarization spiraling out of control.
Meanwhile, in Channel 13, 39% of Israelis say their economic situation has worsened, compared to just 10% who say it improved. This creates exactly the kind of climate in which incumbents struggle and challengers gain traction.
One of the most politically potent data points this week is the soldiers’ benefits question from Channel 13. When asked which camp would better protect the rights of regular soldiers and reservists, 46% of the public chose the Bennett-led opposition versus just 32% for the Netanyahu-led coalition. Among respondents with an opinion, the margin widens dramatically to 58%–42% in Bennett’s favor. This is not a marginal issue: in the middle of a prolonged war and a reserve-duty crisis, this cuts directly into the coalition’s traditional advantage on security. The fact that voters now associate Bennett and the opposition, not the government, with better treatment of those serving is a warning sign for the coalition and a strategic opening for Bennett’s camp.
Bloc Trends
The bloc numbers tell a story of two rival governing coalitions, both hovering around the 61-seat line. Four of the five polls show a remarkably tight picture: Netanyahu’s bloc stuck in the low-50s, Bennett’s bloc sitting in the high-50s.
The coalition is no longer expanding. Likud is stable but capped, and the ultra-Orthodox parties are already near saturation. Even Otzma Yehudit’s gains simply reshuffle seats within the bloc rather than creating new ones.
By contrast, Bennett’s bloc is structurally broader. It contains the entire secular center-left (Yesh Atid, Democrats, Yashar), and a growing national-liberal right (Bennett and Yisrael Beitenu). This gives Bennett more coalition arithmetic paths than Netanyahu.
Eyes on the Threshold
This election will almost certainly be decided below the 3.25% line. Four parties are floating dangerously close to extinction.
This matters because every wasted right-wing vote hurt Netanyahu twice. If Smotrich or an additional party like Noam runs and fails, those votes disappear entirely, shrinking the bloc even if Likud remains strong.
On the Arab side, Balad remains a spoiler. If it runs and fails, the Arab bloc drops below 10. If it withdraws or merges, the Arab parties consolidate and that directly strengthens their blocking majority.
The opposition has mostly stabilized above the threshold with the exception of Hendel’s party who is widely expected to merge or drop out before the final party lists are submitted, six weeks before the election date.
What to Expect Next
Unless something dramatic changes, the campaign is heading toward a binary referendum: Netanyahu vs Bennett, with everyone else reduced to bloc math.
Bennett is now running not as a protest candidate, but as a government-in-waiting. He leads the opposition in seats, he leads it in coalition arithmetic, and he leads it in perceived competence on security and reservist issues.
Netanyahu still has the largest single party, but his bloc is capped, brittle, and hostage to threshold failures.
The next phase of the race will revolve around three things: Whether Bennett can keep pulling soft Likud voters as economic and security anxiety rises, whether Smotrich & others splinter wasted votes, and whether the Arab parties are able to pull together a merger into a joint list.
| Poll | Broadcaster/ Publisher | Pollster | Field Dates | Sample | Margin of Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maariv | Lazar / Panels | 7–8 Jan 2026 | 503 | 4.4% |
| 2 | Channel 12 | Midgam | 8 Jan 2026 | 503 | 4.4% |
| 3 | Channel 13 | Maagar Mochot | 7 Jan 2026 | 569 | 4.1% |
| 4 | Zman Yisrael | Tatika | 7–8 Jan 2026 | 500 | 4.4% |
| 5 | Channel 14 | Filber | 8 Jan 2026 | 506 | Not reported |
| Party | Maariv | Channel 12 | Channel 13 | Zman Yisrael | Channel 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likud (Netanyhau) | 27 | 25 | 26 | 28 | 35 |
| Bennett 2026 | 22 | 21 | 24 | 21 | 13 |
| Shas (Deri) | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| Democrats (Golan) | 10 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman) | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 |
| Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir) | 9 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Yesh Atid (Lapid) | 8 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 6 |
| Yashar (Eisenkot) | 10 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| United Torah Judaism | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| Ra’am (Abbas) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Hadash–Ta’al | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Religious Zionism (Smotrich) | 2.2% | 4 | 2.7% | 0 | 4 |
| Balad | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 0 | 2.1% |
| Blue & White (Gantz) | 2.2% | 0.6% | 2.7% | 0 | 1.4% |
| Miluimnikim (Hendel) | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0 | — |
| Bloc Totals | |||||
| Bennett Bloc | 59 | 58 | 57 | 56 | 44 |
| Netanyahu Bloc | 51 | 52 | 53 | 53 | 66 |
| Arab Bloc | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| Fear of Political Violence Before the Next Election (Maariv) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Response | Coalition Voters | Opposition Voters | Undecided | Total |
| Worried | 64% | 75% | 60% | 68% |
| Not worried | 30% | 21% | 25% | 25% |
| Don’t know | 7% | 4% | 15% | 7% |
| Who Will Better Protect Soldiers’ Rights? (Channel 13) | ||||
| Response | General Sample | Opinion Holders | ||
| Bennett-led Opposition | 46% | 58% | ||
| Netanyahu-led Coalition | 32% | 42% | ||
| Don’t know | 22% | — | ||
| Personal Economic Situation (Channel 13) | ||||
| Response | General Sample | Opinion Holders | ||
| Improved | 10% | 10% | ||
| Worsened | 37% | 39% | ||
| Stayed the same | 49% | 51% | ||
| Don’t know | 4% | — | ||
| Suitability for Prime Minister (Channel 14) | ||||
| Candidate | Support | |||
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 53% | |||
| Naftali Bennett | 26% | |||
| Gadi Eisenkot | 12% | |||
| Yair Lapid | 4% | |||
| Avigdor Lieberman | 4% | |||
| Benny Gantz | 1% | |||
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Very interesting analysis, well written and clear. My question would be why is 14 so different from the other channels predictions? Is there a difference in methodology – what is the reliability of 14 vs the other pollsters?