Teleseker conducted a poll that was taken out for Channel 1 and released on March 12 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
25 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
22 [18] Likud
12 [20] Yesh Atid
12 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [11] Bayit Yehudi
09 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
08 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
67 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
53 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
If these are the results, BIBI is easily PM
I think the right still needs to worry with these results because my gut tells me Kahlon will go left. I get the impression he is a political opportunist like Tzipi. The right cannot count on this guy and any person on the right whowho is thinking of voting Kahlon should change their vote to Likud or Bayit Yehudi unless Kahlon unequivocally says he is supporting Bibi (which he won’t because he goes where the wind blows and is now a lefty). There are too many people on the right playing Russian roulette with this guy thinking he is a Likudnik and it will end up being a disaster for the right.
Does anyone on the right disagree with me about Kahlon?
I agree with you. I am still worried. I hope Kahlon declines towards the finish. How could right wingers not see that he might go left!
RJ,
I don’t know why you assume that Kulanu is drawing from the right. There is an Old Likud–Sharon after ’04, Livni, Olmert–that is not really right-wing and Kahlon kind of fits in there with a pretty socially liberal platform.
The Channel 2 poll yesterday said that more Kahlon voters want him to recommend Bougie than Bibi. He knows that and that is probably why he’ll do.
right-wingers and center-rightists should abandon Kahlon, who has betrayed the nationalist ideology. they should move to BY – I do not think that many of them are eager to support Likud (=Netanyahu) as they apparently has left Likud because of Netanyahu.
I agree with RJ and g M. Chris, I know a lot of people who like BY and are voting for Kahlon because they think he is right and good for the economy. I know people who are Likud/BY right when it comes to giving away land but are going with Lapid because they mistakenly think he is “center” and that either Likud will be in the next government or that they have nothing to worry about because there is no Arab “partner.” These people are dead wrong on both fronts – (1) Obama is very hostile and will force Israel to make devastating concessions that Buji/Tzipi will capitulate to whether there is a “partner” or not and (2) Lapid is a leftist to the core and Kahlon will go left because that’s where the wind is blowing. Anyone who is in the center or the right who is even thinking about Kahlon or Lapid needs to vote BY or Likud because otherwise they are casting a left wing vote.
I hope he goes left. His supported prefer Herzog to Netanyahu. As for political opportunism news flash they all are. Netanyahu included.
25 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
12 [20] Yesh Atid
12 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
04 [06] Meretz
Total 53
22 [18] Likud
11 [11] Bayit Yehudi
09 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
08 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
Total 67
Even if Kahlon recommends Herzog, and you put his 9 on that side, that’s 62, but then you have to take out the 12 from the Joint List. They have never joined a Zioninst coalition, and they’re not about to start now. They can recommend Herzog all they want, but they still will not be in the coalition. That leaves Herzog with 50. To form a coalition then, he would have to get the Orthodox parties to sit in a coalition with the party they hate the most–Yesh Atid–stemming from their championing of the elimination of the Haredi draft exemption. That ain’t gonna happen. And frankly, even if that wrinkle COULD be ironed out (which it can’t), they also will, as they did with Livni in 2008, preventing her from forming a coalition and bringing about the elections that put Netanyahu in back then, insist on an iron-clad promise from the new government to never divide Jerusalem–also something they will never get from a Labor-led government as it stands today. And I think Kahlon knows that if he does recommend Herzog and he gets the nod, his attempt is VERY likely to fail and throw it right back to a repeated election. Plus, if he is the opportunist you say he is, he is actually much more assured of the Finance portfolio under Bibi than he is under Herzog, who has already committed that portfolio to be filled within his own circle in Labor.
I think your analysis makes sense. However, I think Deri is a leftist. He may recommend Netenyahu for political reasons in phase 2 but run to the left in phase 3. I think he and Yesh Atid will figure out a way to make it work because both will want to be in the government. As for the Arab list, I think it is possible for them to do something like UTJ does where they support the coalition and perhaps even take on deputy minister position but do not cross the line of actually having ministers in the government. I think their voters would want this because it would mean they are now relevant and Buji and Tzipi can sell it as still being a “zionist” government. Either way, I think any person on the right who is considering Kahlon better be safe and vote BY or Likud. I wouldn’t trust him and nothing he has said so far should give anyone on the right any reason to trust him.
Alex, can you define your use (or the Joint List’s) of the term “Zionist Coalition?” Is it based on Jerusalem staying whole or is there some other line in the sand.
Who said he ACTUALLY wants the finance portfolio? 😉
The finance minister’s position is one of the most hated in israeli politics and he can always push his agenda without it. like other parties do.
Alex,
I hope you’re right. I like your optimism. I agree that in normal circumstances, it doesn’t seem possible that the left would be able to form a coalition. But as an American who has lived the last seven years under a minority occupation government, I still worry. I worry that the left will do a little bit better than the polls. Kahlon is a traitor. I worry about Lieberman wanting to get rid of Bibi so badly that he ends up sitting with Meretz. I worry that the left’s ground game will be awesome because of the V15 jerks. A lot of things could go wrong. I hope you’re right.
As a leftist, I’ve been a quiet reader of this blog because I consider myself like a guest in Jeremy’s living room and he has done an excellent and objective job here. However, with a couple of days to the election I’ll break my silence and say that a narrow right wing government would be Omar Boughouti and his BDS movement’s greatest victory. We can all see the headlines in the world press: “Netanyahu Forms Government with Support of Homophobes, Racists religious Extremists and One State Settlers”. Not pretty and maybe unfair but likely.
brian_NYC:
Zionist parties: parties calls themselves zionist and are members of World Zionist Organization. In Israel all parties with the exception of Yahadut Hatorah and Joint List are zionist.
It´s not only about Jerusalem staying whole (Meretz is zionist and support some agreement with the palestinians about Yerushalaim).It´s more about defend Israel as state of the jewish people (law of return, israeli flag…).
The policy of the arab parties have been not join to zionist governments (formed by zionist parties), although in times of Rabin they supported the government from outside (in the Knesset).
Hello Souki,
Welcome to my living room 🙂
I appreciate the support.
Yes, I also think that Deri is a leftist, but he realizes that Labor would probably be worse for hareidim with Meretz and Lapid/Lieberman/Kahlon calling the shots regarding public transportation on shabbat, gay marriage,…
It seems that Kahlon is rising.
Thanks Miguel, ok, I was trying to see if the term Zionist was being used in a different context than I was familiar with, now I see that the Joint List’s usage is traditional
That was what I meant as well. For example, Meretz is rather nuts, but they at least still believe they are pursuing the interest of the survival of a Jewish State. If Israel ever actually listened to them, there would be no nation left within five years, but that is not their intention.
Yah it’s really Israel as a democratic state vs Israel as a Jewish and democratic state.
Thing is, they don’t have to agree with everything to be in a coalition. Most Israeli Arabs want them to join, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least Hadash and Tibi put their disagreements aside and join.
Brian_nyc:
Yes, Joint List’s usage of term zionist is traditional. Raam and Balad rejected that the Joint List signed a voter exchange agreement with Meretz because is zionist:
http://m.maariv.co.il/HomePage/FrontPage/Article.aspx?id=467054
CupOfCanada:
1-The difference is a little more complicated, because in the arab parties there are a important nationalist arab component (legitimate, but I mean it’s not universal anti-nationalism).
2-Hadash y Taal said that they will not join government (it´s true against the opinion of a lot of their voters), but would support government from outside (more complicated in the case of Raam and Balad).
So then UTJ should also be listed as Zionist. And why is Zionist missing from Meretz’ own website? Finally, their use of “Democratic” has nothing to do with the dictionary meaning of the word.
Meretz is part of the World Zionist Organization, UTJ no.