Maagar Mochot conducted a poll that was taken out for Kol B’Ramah Radio and released on March 12 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
21 [18] Likud
13 [20] Yesh Atid
13 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
08 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
05 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
66 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
54 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Uh … think I’m detecting a trend here. With little variation. All saying one thing. It’s going to come down to Kulanu.
Ya Think? If Kulanu and Shas went with the Zionist Union it would be the greatest empowerment of Edot Hamizrach since 1977.
It would actually be edot ha mizrach/sephardim either being conned or sold out by Deri/Kahlon and empowering an elitist minority (Buji/Tzipi) to take power against the will of the people. In Israel, 50% of Israelis want Bibi as prime minister and only 23% want Buji. I would bet you that of those numbers, 90% of edot ha mizrach/sephardim want Bibi and less than 10% want Buji/Tzipi.
I really believe that 50% of Israelis want Bibi as PM and 50% want Bibi go home, but what happens is that not everyone in the 50% of “lo Bibi” still trust on Buji.
48% prefer Netanyahu given the choice between him and Herzog. That doesn’t mean 48% actually want him to be PM. People may vote against Netanyahu rather than for Herzog.
If they can guarantee that the government falls before Livni takes over. Livni is poison not only to Charedim, but to anyone who wants the Jewish people not to be split into two groups that cannot intermarry.
Can anyone find odds on the next PM, I cannot find a site taking bets. Very tempting to place a Kahlon long shot bet, would definitely bite at higher than 20/1
I think the idea that Kahlon would squeeze himself into a bare-majority government with Marzel and the Haredim is pretty unrealistic. I am guessing that Lapis and ZU will do better than the polls suggest, but even granting the polls an exactitude that I shouldn’t, you either have a Rivlin-mandated unity government led by Bougie or you have Bougie scraping together 61 seats with the Haredim or a minority government with the Joint List.
Either way, you have Bougie, not Bibi. Also consider that with YB and Yishai near the threshold and Bennet performing at or under his 2013 numbers, Likud really doesn’t have anywhere else to pluck a few more seats. The ZU can take from the center or the Arab sector and wind up with a decent margin over Likud.
A unity government with rotating premiership is certainly possible. Especially since if Herzog serves the first two years, Obama and Netanyahu will be spared the pain of having to deal with each other.
you are completely wrong, Herzog will never be able to form a government, the first case, the left wing camp plus Kulanu, that will never happen for two reasons, first the Arab parties will never join any government, that was their position all the time, yes they supported Rabin government from outside when Shas left the government, but that during Oslo talks and the concessions, in 2008 the Arabs refused to support Livni to form the government and refused to support her again in 2009, although she was talking with the PA, on the other hand Kulanu said he will never stay with the Arabs, the second case, is a government form of ZU, Lapid, Meretz, Kulanu, that government still needs the Haredim, the Haredim said they will never stay with Lapid, even Deri said that, even if Deri agreed to join, the government still needs another small party, which is Lieberman, Lieberman said he wants a right wing government and said he will never stay with Meretz, and Meretz is ruling out staying with Lieberman, there are two cases, case number one, which will happen if the polls gave the national camp and Kulanu a majority, that means that the Likud will form a government of the nationalist parties, the Haredim and Kulanu, case number two, if the polls are wrong, and the national camp failed to achieve a majority, in that case Herzog will be forced to form a government with Likud and he will be the PM, but i doubt that the Likud will accept that, so new elections will be called, because any other alternative will not last, and any government formed with the support of the Arabs will never survive anyway
Kahlon wouldn’t join a right wing government and I doubt that Bibi would even want that. Bougie will be chosen to form the government and he will lead a minority government before any of the scenarios you’ve mentioned could happen. It is Rivlin’s choice, and I suspect he’ll do everything possible to prevent a right wing government.
This is at Chris, it isn’t really Rivlin’s choice. Peres was never a fan of Netanyahu, but there was nothing else he could do, because the majority of parties supported him. And Kahlon will support whomever will make him Finance Minister, and that is Netanyahu. Also, a government cannot be formed as a minority government. The Arab parties can support from outside to block no-confidence votes if a party leaves the government, but new governments must be formed with at least 61 MK’s. Herzog/Livni have absolutely no viable path to achieving this even if they are tapped by Rivlin to make the first attempt. That scenario will lead to new elections.
Alex:
“The Arab parties can support from outside to block no-confidence votes if a party leaves the government, but new governments must be formed with at least 61 MK’s.”
I think that no necessary. In theory Herzog could be PM with the votes of the parties of his government (ZU, Meretz, Yesh Atid and Kulanu: 50 MK´s in this poll) + Joint List (12 MK’s in this poll, from outside of the government)=62 MK´s. Likely that will not happen, but in theory is possible. Not Jeremy?
So the Right must depend on the consistency of the hatred of people who want to destroy the State of the Jews. Even more interesting are the Leftist posters here who are rooting for support from those who want to destroy them.
Buji.
Almost all ways, mathematically, you have Bibi. The general level of high speculation in these comments and in the media in general is irrational and disconcerting. Facts: 1) The spread on this latest poll is still 12. Do we believe Jeremy’s methodology? I do. 2) The Haredim will not sit with a Herzog coalition. 2) YA and the Arabs will not sit together. 3) There will be no radical shifts leftwards from small parties, just to be in a Herzog coalition. 4) Even if there is an attempt to cobble together a Herzog coalition and it can come about on paper, it will have no mandate and no ability to actually govern. This is not a game, winner takes all, it is a process, and the stakes are very high. Bibi needs turnout of the loyal, that is all and it is done. Oh, and Kulanu sucks, hope they get left out in the cold.
“Oh, and Kulanu sucks, hope they get left out in the cold.”
I seriously doubt this will happen no matter who is PM.
Well, you heard it from me first. I have a nasty habit of being right most of the time.
ya said tonite they will not stand with bibi. so how does bibi get a majority?
As a UTJ voter, I support my party joining with whomever will help us most. But YA ran a Sinat Yisrael campaign last time, and Livni is very dangerous. On the other hand, Likud cannot be trusted.
What is the joint list goes for Taqiyya?
Unity (that is, big-party mafia) coalition.
A more relevant summary analysis should be defo-left (ZU, YA, Meretz), defo right (Likud, BY, YB, Yachad), “centre” (Kahlon), Charedim and Joint list. The fear is that the “defo left” seats are on 42 and might only have to get a majority in the Knesset minus Arabs (120-13 = 107, so only need 54 seats), while the “defo right” are on 44 but need to top up to 61 seats.
It is close, and something like Yachad or YB not getting in, or a last minute boost to Kahlon and/or Yesh Atid could enable lefties and Kahlon to get a majority of the 107, without Charedim or YB.
Sure, you have a reasoning, a scenario, but highly speculative. You are speculating that the voting citizens of the State of Israel, by free-will, are going to make a sharp turn leftward and to the secular, when all the demographic data states otherwise.
Doesn’t have to be a “sharp” turn. And if it is a turn, it’s not to the left but to the center. The only parties that are left are Meretz and The List. The co-leader of ZU is a former member of Likud. YA is pretty smack down the middle. Kulanu is right of center.
It’s not actually much of a turn. The centre/left/right breakdown is almost the same. The difference is this time Bibi has completely alienated Yesh Atid. If Bibi gets ousted, it will be by his own doing.
I think that Meretz is left, ZU globally is center-left. The ideology of Joint List is israeli-arab interests/Anti Zionism, with leftists/communist and rightist/islamist from the arab sector (but with a common agenda and focus about nationalist questions).
Not a sharp turn – all it might take is Yachad or YB not making the threshold
Likud does worse than their poll numbers. They know it, which is why they are freaking out right now.
Yes, center-right voters, not wanting to vote Likud, should realize what is at stake and vote BY – that could increase the right -bloc by maybe 3-7 seats.
I politely disagree with all you “Canadiens” and bid you all a fond adieu. On to vote..
Combined with a strong finish for the centre, as people sitting on the fence vote for the “I’ll sit on the fence” parties, like last time and the time before that etc…
Could Herzog form a government with the Arabs just supporting from the outside even if it is a minority government? Don’t they need a majority vote in phase 2?
Yes he could as in Rabin times, even it’s not very likely.
No less likely than a Marzel-Liberman-Bennett government led by Bibi. The right wing dream team would isolate Israel and cause a social rift even larger than exists already.
Rabin never formed a government that was already in the minority. It became minority when Shas left, and then the Arabs blocked a no-confidence vote, which was the only way for a sitting government to fail. But the new government would still have to be formed with 61 or more.
And Chris, the way to prevent the scenario you refer to would be for Labor to get it through their skulls that they have no path to a coalition, and agree to join a Netanyahu-led government, as happened under Ehud Barak when he was given the Defense Minister portfolio. This would have a moderating influence on the government on many issues (especially the social and economic matters that are the main source of disagreement between Netanyahu and Kahlon) but would leave security matters solely in the hands of the right, where they belong.
Chris:
+1
Really a government with Marzel-Lieberman-Bennett would be a victory for BDS.
Miguel,
I guess you would like the BDS movement to get that victory…
Obviously I would not like. I dont like Marzel/BDS victories.
Shavua tov.
Miguel,
you know what a BDS victory looks like? It would be kind of in line with the following:
I leftist-arab govt is established and Herzog (because of pressure from Obama, EU) starts to dismantle isolated settlements and then parts of the blocs. When Abu Mazen demands that about 500000-1000000 arabs get to “return”, Obama will support that demand and of course Herzog will accept it. Then of course this involves division of Jerusalem, then after some months of negotiations you can expect the leftists to hand over parts of Tel Aviv to the arab state. And so on…
g M:
You are very wrong about BDS wants. The BDS wants to end Israel as Jewish and democratic/ Zionist state, and so they are against a solution of two states for two peoples. For them an Israeli government very rightist with Baruch Marzel would be great news, since the farther away a solution of two states closer the BDS solution of one state, and in which Israel (sooner or later) would no longer be a Jewish state.
Say that Herzog or Livni will accept the return of 500000-1milón arabs or will hand over parts of Tel Aviv is a lie, they will never accept it. But if there is not a two state solution Israel will have to give citizenship to 2-2.5 million (I dont care the exact number) of arabs of Yosh, so all Eretz Israel (Yosh, Haifa, Tel Aviv) would be part of a state that would not be a Jewish state and that finally would be a Arab state (and where the future of the jews would be the exodus or be killed, not just the jews of the WB but all israeli jews). Other alternatives are unreal.
The BDS movement also wants delegitimize Israel, and that would be much more easy with a very right-wing government with a racist and homophobic as Baruch Marzel, than with a centrist or center-left government (the arab parties have ruled out be part of Herzog government) with Hezog, Tzipi and Lapid.
That’s why BDS, Hamas and the radicals in the PLO want that Netanyahu win the elections, and not Herzog. A hawkish Palestinian Authority officials says:
This official’s final statement reflects a very popular position among the more hawkish Palestinian Authority officials, including some who are involved in talks with Israel, who believe “Netanyahu is better for the Arabs.”
In their view, Netanyahu succeeded in serving the Palestinian cause more than any other Israeli prime minister, and without him, the Palestinians would not enjoy such wide international backing for various actions.
“I decided to hang Netanyahu’s portrait next to Arafat’s a long time ago,” a Palestinian journalist associated with the PLO recently told The Times of Israel. “If there is anyone who helped us win the support of the international community and who caused a real rift with the United States, Israel’s closest ally, it’s Netanyahu.”
Those who hold this view see Herzog and Livni as a real threat to the PLO’s ability to take steps in the Security Council or elsewhere in the diplomatic arena.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-and-fatah-have-clear-opposite-interests-in-israels-election-outcome/#ixzz3UUZcq6GP
And is because Hamas prefers Bibi than Buji. See previous link where about Buji victory said: “Hamas’s nightmare scenario”..
J Post poll: center left plus Kulanu now up to 66 seats. 41% want Netanyahu to lead the government, 48% do not.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Post-poll-Zionist-Union-extends-its-lead-over-Likud-393810
But yet again, that “center-left” being at 66 with Kulanu is still including the Arab parties who will not be in a coalition. So that leaves the real total at 53–8 short of an actual coalition
Maybe, maybe not. But it would be enough to give Herzog the first crack at it.
ZU is full of New Israel FInd people. That’s far Left.