New Wave conducted a poll of 630 people with a margin of error of 3.9% that was published by Yisrael Hayom on Dec 5 2014. The poll was conducted Dec 2-3.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
22 [18] Likud
16 [12] Bayit Yehudi
13 [–] New Kachlon Party
12 [15] Labor
10 [19] Yesh Atid
10 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
08 [11] Shas
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Meretz
05 [04] Hadash
04 [06] Movement
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
02 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
77 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)
43 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)
Additional Questions:
Who is most fit to be Israel’s Prime Minister?
24% Prime Minister Netanyahu, 11% Opposition Leader Herzog, 9% Justice Minister Livni, 6% Economy Minister Bennett, 6% Foreign Minister Liberman, 5% Finance Minister Lapid, 5% Former Minister Kachlon, 34% None of them.
Due to the crisis between coalition parties, should we or should we not go to early elections?
49% Yes, 42% No, 9% Don’t know
Do you believe Lapid’s 0 VAT plan will lower housing prices?
65% No, 25% Yes, 10% Don’t know
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Let’s for discussion’s sake say that the two following combined lists are created:
Labor-Hatnua-Kadima (maybe also add Meretz?)
Yesh Atid-Yisrael Beiteinu-Kahlon
Then the question is what should Likud and Bayit Yehudi do, as these both blocs risk becoming bigger than Likud (and Bayit Yehudi). I would guess that the best would be to unite Likud and Bayit Yehudi in one list. Then MAYBE this list would together with Shas and UTJ get 60+ seats (for example 61 is enough …).
Anyone has any idea what the chance is that Gideon Saar will challenge Bibi? And might a change in leadership “disarm” Kahlon from his arguments against the Likud of today?
Near as I can tell, this is the left committing suicide. I don’t see any realistic scenario where they can get a majority. Herzog’s fantasy is predicated on Lieberman (right-wing, virulently anti-Arab, neo-liberal economically) joining a left wing coalition and somehow the Arab parties tacitly approving this. They loathe Lieberman more than they hate Netanyahu. It doesn’t matter if Herzog-Lapid-Livni form the largest bloc. If they can’t form a majority, they can’t govern. Lieberman knows this. So does Kachlon.
I think some of the key questions will be:
1 What will the Likud-Bayit Yehudi-Haredi bloc look like after election day? If it’s 54 like in this poll, then Netanyahu only needs to invite IB or Kachalon form a majority.
2 Will IB and Kachalon form an alliance like the Bayit Yehudi-Yesh Atid alliance in 2013 to maximize their leverage?
3 Will Likud-BY-IB-Kachalon be able to form a majority without the Haredi? They have 61 in this poll. If this occurs then the Haredi will have much less leverage especially with regard to economic policy. A Likud-BY-IB-Kachalon will probably go full speed ahead on economic reforms (and reverse the damage done by Lapid).
4 Will Shas split and what impact could that have? So far, it looks like it wouldn’t matter at all to Netanyahu’s chances as PM, but a Likud-BY-IB-Kachalon bloc would probably prefer a Yishai minus Deri party.
5 If Shas splits, how will this affect UTJ’s behavior? They always act in lockstep with Shas, but if there are two Shas factions, with whom will they ally? Or will they act independent of Shas for the first time in their history?
6 Will BY split? I highly doubt it. Ariel likely just wants a couple of extra seats reserved for Tkuma members.
7 Assuming there is a split in Shas, will Yishai’s faction want to join on the same list with another party? Will any other party actually want the baggage that goes with the Haredi?
many of those are very good questions, and also reasons why we shouldn’t judge everything based on polls at this point