Geocartography conducted a poll that was broadcast by Army Radio by on Dec 3 2014.
Additional Questions:
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
30 [18] Likud
16 [12] Bayit Yehudi
14 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
12 [15] Labor
09 [11] Shas
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [19] Yesh Atid
07 [–] New Kachlon Party
07 [06] Meretz
10 [11] Ra’am-Ta’al, Balad, Hadash
00 [06] Movement
00 [02] Kadima
84 [61] Right-Religious
36 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Hey J,
I don’t know if this will get to you but I have a question. There are so many polls and the results are so different, how do you know which one is the most accurate? What do you think, are early elections imminent?
Hope all is well,
Moish (Kenny)
Israeli polls are notoriously inaccurate. Last election no pollster had Yeah Atid over 12- they got 19.
Next elections on March 17, 2014.
polls can’t help you with people who change their minds day before the elections
It’s not true.
No poll can guess all the numbers, it’s about 95% probability, so always there are one or two parties with a greater mistake than predictable, but the rest parties are OK
That is a complicated question, I’ll try to write a post to answer it.
The truth is that none of them are accurate but you can see a trend.
The right (Netanyahu, Bennet, Lieberman and Kachlon) 57
The left (Avodah and Meretz) 21
Charedim (UTJ and Shjass) 16
The Center (Lapid and Livni) 15
Arabs (Balad, Hadash and Ra’am) 11
Only one thing looks certain at the moment that whoever will be forming the next government will need the Charedim.
125 ?!?
Livni is 0 not 5, problem with template, has been fixed.
I guessed that was the mistake…no way livni gets five seats.
BTW-these polls, are they online? Can you provide links?
most of the polls are tv/radio so there is no links
this poll is wishful thinking
I assume you mean Mar 17, 2015. That works out well being after the Jerusalem marathon 😉
Hi! It would be nice, if you’ll add poll company in tags, i.e. “geocartography”, so we could compare.
good idea
You can do a search as well, as in https://knessetjeremy.com/?s=geocartography
You can see that in the three polls they made this year with Likud and YB runing separately, Likud+YB+BY could form a majority alone… Quite far from other polling companies…
this pollster has always had the right the highest
Hi guys!
What is REALLY going on in Bayit Yehudi? What is more likely, one united religious zionist list or several different (like 2-3, or more?)? I have read the arguments for and against unity and in some way there is logic behind most arguments. But still I do not understand what the problem would be for politicians like Eli-Dahan, Struk, Eldad, Ben-Ari etc. and compete. I mean one would think that e.g. Ben-Ari would receive quite a good (great?) spot on the list.
Read about what Ofir Akunis said to Arutz Sheva. So will Likud try get several (which in that case?) right-wing parties to unite in one list? Great idea!
Comments, please! And those of you who know party members in the concerned parties (we all know which parties are in question) could have a chat and maybe put some ideas in party activists’ heads…
I don’t believe the exact figures of 84-36 but the trend is clear. We’ve been seeing this for a year with the trend really solidifying in July. Barring a dramatic change (always possible), the right/religious will have more seats next time and should be able to form a comfortable majority without any left-center parties which will likely result in accelerating policies Yesh Atid and Movement strongly oppose. Are Livni and Lapid looking at different polls than everyone else? Their machinations seem politically suicidal, especially Livni who is risking political oblivion. Did they actually think they could form an alternative government with Labor and the Haredi? That’s crazy.
I think this is the 80-breaker for the right wing bloc that I was waiting for. Breaker? Out-of-the-parker.
Thanks תודה and God Bless, Gidon Ariel gidon.ariel@gmail.com גדעון אריאל cell 054-5665037, home 02-5354586, USA (VoIP) 516-321-1846 Israel fax 1532-5354586, USA fax 623-433-4874 Maale Hever, DN Har Hebron 90420 Israel מעלה חבר, ד”נ הר חברון “Happy are those who have discovered that the secret of life is to be nice to others”
all of the 80+ is coming from same pollster
Hello, two more polls published this morning in the morning talk shows.
One, at Haolam Haboker, Ch2, of Machon Sarid, only partial results published.
http://reshet.tv/Shows/your_family_Haolam_Haboker/videomarklist,237076/ around 11 mins
Likud 24, Bayit Yehudi 17, Labor 17, Yesh Atid 11
Two, at Orly and Guy, Ch 10 competing morning talk show, giving Maagar Mochot poll:
http://10tv.nana10.co.il/Article/?ArticleID=1095781 around 45 mins.
Likud 26, Bayit Yehudi 16, Labor 13, Yesh Atid 8, Shas 8, Yahadut Hatorah 8, Meretz 7,
Yisrael Beitenu 12, Kachlon 8, Movement 3, Raam Taal 4, Balad 3, Hadash 4
It is unfortunate that very few polls publish number of those polled, and the exact dates of the polls, and in above example, even full results.
This is the only poll according to which Likud, Bayit Yehudi, Shas and UTJ could form a government, in case the Arutz Sheva report that Lapid, Lieberman and Kahlon would cooperate after/already before the elections. In any other case I guess that such a cooperation would AGAIN mean a center-right government.