Smith conducted a poll of 500 people with a margin of error of 4.5% that was published by Globes on November 27 2014. The poll was conducted on Nov 25-26.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
23 [18] Likud
16 [12] Bayit Yehudi
15 [15] Labor
11 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
10 [19] Yesh Atid
10 [11] Shas
09 [–] New Kachlon Party
08 [06] Meretz
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
00 [06] Movement
00 [02] Kadima
76 [61] Right-Religious
44 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Additional Questions
Who is most fit to be Israel’s Prime Minister?
33% Prime Minister Netanyahu, 15% Opposition Leader Herzog, 12% Economy Minister Bennett, 8% Foreign Minister Liberman, 6% Finance Minister Lapid, 26% None of the above
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
26% none of the above.. How many of them would say Feiglin given the option? Danon? Amir Benayoun?:-)
And 76 right religious: is that the highest the bloc has ever polled? Had it ever broken eighty?
תודה thanks, גדעון אריאל Gidon Ariel 054-5665037 gidon.ariel@gmail.com
I think it at some point in ONE poll hit 84 seats.
Geocartography poll from Nov 18 had right-religious bloc with 84.
26% probably includes a high % of people who prefer the beach to voting on election day.
Good question. I would like to see Danon and Feiglin in the leadership list. I am less familiar with the third
This poll is however strange. With the lower threshold Livni falls out but all the arab parties stay. And Shas stays at 10 and Yisrael Beiteinu at 11!!
Livni made some bad choices the past week.
Arab parties always survive the old threshold.
Shas & Yisrael Beitenu have had different results by different companies.
Lilvni is not going to got to the next election with his own party, but in another: With Lapid, with Avodah?
I read on Arutz sheva and JPost about a bill to dissolve the Knesset possible being approved next week. Any truth behind this talk?
But when there will be elections, it will be interesting to see what alliances are shaped:
1. Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad? Other possibilities?
2. Hatnua and Labor? Or with Yesh Atid? Or all together?
3. Will Kahlon run in an existing party or form a new one? Run together with Yisrael Beiteinu? Or with Bayit Yehudi? Probably not with Likud.
4. Will Bibi try to get a union with Bayit Yehudi, considering the party’s situations in the polls?
5. Or could there be an alliance between Likud, Bayit Yehudi, Yisrael Beiteinu and Kahlon party?
Please comment these speculations.
Based on the following articles one could be worried about the future of right-wing rule:
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/187994
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/187998#.VHhTjTGsVqI
For example, if Shas and UTJ were to support Kahlon for PM (with Lieberman having run on a joint list with Kahlon, which would not be surprising, or then simply Lieberman supporting Kahlon for PM), the following question would be if Kahlon (based on earlier statements about Likud) would rather have Yesh Atid and Labor in the government (also Hatnua if it survives) than Likud and Bayit Yehudi.
Is there any chance of the Nationality being passed. I think its unlikely as I can not see the Haredim support it.
OK, it´s Haaretz, but:
“It would take a political magic wand to unseat Netanyahu as prime minister, given the number of seats that would go to Likud, and the moderate size of the parties in the “Anybody But Bibi” camp – and on the assumption that Habayit Hayehudi and the ultra-Orthodox parties would eventually recommend that Netanyahu form the next government – for example, if Yisrael Beiteinu bolted from the right and linked up with the center-left.
Such a scenario seems illogical, but to Netanyahu’s mind, nothing is more logical and threatening. He is hearing from various sources that Yisrael Beiteinu’s chairman, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, in private conversations is predicting or committing himself – to the extent it is up to him – that Netanyahu will not be sworn in to the next Knesset, at least not as prime minister.
If the vote is split the way the Haaretz survey (undertaken last week by Dialog, headed by Prof. Camil Fuchs of Tel Aviv University) predicts, Lieberman could decide who becomes the next prime minister. Ostensibly, Lieberman is deeply rooted in the right. But recently he has moved toward the center. Perhaps he has concluded that Habayit Hayehudi head Naftali Bennett is the new king of the right, and the blanket there is too short to cover them both.
The “peace plan” Lieberman published Friday in Yedioth Ahronoth brings him closer, at least image-wise, to the center. To what extent he is willing to cross the Rubicon to the point of denying Netanyahu the premiership and crowning one of the members of the other camp, perhaps in rotation – only he knows.”
[…]
* The comeback boy of Israeli politics, Moshe Kahlon, is performing strongly in the survey, winning 12 seats (or, in the worst-case survey, seven). A member in good standing of the “Anybody But Bibi” camp, if Netanyahu forms the government – with the help of the ultra-Orthodox and the right – Kahlon will probably join, because there’s nothing for him in the opposition. But with a potential scale-tipper like Kahlon, Netanyahu will do some sweating.
http://www.haaretz.com/misc/article-print-page/.premium-1.629140?trailingPath=2.169%2C2.216%2C2.218%2C
I think that at least two Arab parties (if we consider Hadash as an Arab party) will have to run together since the new threshold is 4 seats. But I Think that it will be almost impossible that a Islamic-Religious party like Ra’am-Ta’al will create an alliance with a secular party and with a female candidate (Zoabi).
About Livni’s Hatnua – I find it hard to believe that they will run alone. It is an ad hoc party. My guess is that Livni will go with Lapid, maybe with Mks Shtern and Tzur, while Peretz & Mitzna will rejoin the Labor. I don’t think that Yesh Atid will run with the Labor, because a significant part of their voters are secular Centre-Right voters that are disappointed from Bibi (especially if PM Netanyahu will sign an agreement with the Haredic parties). Kahlon wants to represent the disadvantaged, and he had previously strongly criticized Netanyahu & Lapid’s economic actions, so I don’t see him connecting with another party that participated in the government. Netanyahu & Liberman/Bennett? it is possible if Liberman will think it is good for him.
Well, after Lieberman’s last political steps I hope Yisrael Beiteinu would disappear, which unfortunately will not happen.
1 – There are many ways Arab parties can merge, including parties that did not pass the threshold last time.
2 – You can look at the Panels poll about possible Yesh Atid-Livni-Labor polling. Meretz will go alone, most likely so will Yesh Atid and Labor. Livni Party will fall apart like Kadima.
3 – Most likely Kachlon runs alone. He could probably get #2 in any party he wants (Likud, Yisrael Beitenu, Bayit Yehudi).
4 – BB will probably try for joint ticket with Bennett, but I’d expect Bennett to decline.
5 – Check the Panels poll on Likud-Yisrael Beitenu-Bayit Yehudi polling. Most likely the 3 parties run on their own.
1- ¿What Arab parties did not pass the treshold last time?
2/5-According to the poll:
There are 62% of the people that say that probably or possibly would vote for a right joint ticket (Likud-Yisrael Beitenu-Bayit Yehud), but also 73% of the people that probably or possibly would vote for left joint ticket (Labor-Meretz-Yesh Atid-Livni).
¿Is not a contradiction? I dont understand.
And another thing, ¿Could be Peres the “father/creator” of left joint ticket? I think that the problem of the center-left it´s that they dont have a credible leader.