Panels conducted a poll of 510 people with a margin of error of 4.5% that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on October 30 2014.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
21 [19] Likud
16 [12] Bayit Yehudi
15 [15] Labor
09 [19] Yesh Atid
09 [12] Yisrael Beitenu
09 [06] Meretz
09 [–] New Kachlon Party
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [11] Shas
05 [06] Movement
05 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
70 [61] Right-Religious
50 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Additional Questions:
Who is most fit to be Israel’s Prime Minister?
27% Prime Minister Netanyahu, 11% Economy Minister Bennett, 10% Opposition Leader Herzog, 8% Justice Minister Livni, 7% Interior Minister Saar, 6% Foreign Minister Liberman, 6% Former Likud Minister Kachlon, 6% Finance Minister Lapid, 19% None of the above
Are you satisfied from the conduct of Netanyahu as Prime Minister?
60% No, 38% Yes
Do you want to see Prime Minister Netanyahu as Prime Minister in the next Knesset term?
61% No, 33% Yes
Who is to blame for the worsening of relations between Israel and the United States?
38% President Obama, 29% Prime Minister Netanyahu, 27% Equal blame
Should the American administration apologize to Prime Minister Netanyahu for the high-level official quote?
64% Yes, 24% No
Can Israel keep depending on the United States in the United Nations?
43% No, 42% Yes
Is the Prime Minister really going to build over the green line or are the latest statements just talk?
42% Intends on building, 36% Just talk
Are you satisfied from the conduct of President Rivlin?
60% Yes
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Are you sure to place the New Kachlon Party in the right block. He has been very critical with Bibi even in the diplomatic issues. Are you sure he would support Bibi as PM even if Bibi got second place in the elections (suppose that a center-left coalition sponsored by Peres defeat Likud)?
P.D. It seems that Hadash consolidates 5 MK´s in the polls. This is an impulse to go alone in the elections.
Kachlon should not be grouped together with the right/religious bloc. Aside from his sniping at the Likud as “extreme right”, he’s clearly setting himself up to be the next Kadima/Yesh Atid. His party will be yet another center-left faction masquerading as a Third Way alternative to the left and right.
These numbers point to many combinations. If relations with the US are seen as paramount, a coalition without BY with a strong centrist and realist flavor might yet emerge – Shas or even Labor being included. A swing of 3-4 seats leftward would guarantee it. Going with the 70 you characterize as right plus religious misreads the public mood.