Maagar Mochot conducted a poll that was broadcast by Channel 10 on Sept 15 2014.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
26 [19] Likud
16 [12] Bayit Yehudi
14 [12] Yisrael Beitenu
13 [15] Labor
10 [11] Shas
08 [19] Yesh Atid
07 [–] New Kachalon Party
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [06] Meretz
05 [06] Movement
10 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad
00 [02] Kadima
79 [61] Right-Religious
41 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The three right wing parties in the top three spots with 79 seats for the bloc. We are seeing some polling companies that are showing these type of results (Geocartography being another one), while others such as Panels and Smith are showing the right-religious bloc closer to 70 (instead of 80).
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Looks like we know who’s going to win and who’s going to lose in the Lapid vs. Natanyahu/Ya’alon spat over the defense budget increase. Lapid better hope there’s not new elections over the budget. I do wonder if Bennett’s position of “Increase the defense budget? Yes. But with structural reforms, cutting of waste, and reduction of excessive pensions” is the best maneuver between the Scylla (of Lapid’s refusals) and Charybdis (of Ya’alon’s demands).
yeh, elections rigth away would be great!
I guess the debate about the army is kind of the same as in the States. There is also the discussion about the military budget and reforms etc.
So you have moderate democrats and (semi-)establishment republicans that want to increase the budget without at least some reforms in the army; republicans like sen. Lindsey Graham(R-SC), sen. John Mccain(R-AZ), sen. Marco Rubio(R-FL),… and then there are the more conservative-tea party-libertarian republicans like Justin Amash (R-MI), sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), … AND of course progressive Dems who want to cut, cut and cut the military and just make Obamacare, Medicare, Medicaid, social security explode plus introducing even more crazy social programs.
The reforms would include cutting waste in the US army, which would lead to a smaller need of funds.
AND the debate in Israel is the same. Yaalon, Netanyahu etc. want to just like that increase the defense budget and have no requirements on reforming/streamlining operational methods etc. Then you have politicians like Lapid that automatically wants to cut the military, yeshivas, settlements to increase health and social expenses. Neither approach is serious. I think the best approach would be, like Bennett advocates to increase defense spending, but the increase would be tied to reforms; much like Rand Paul advocates.
Here are some interesting parallells, taking into account the above: who resembels who with regard to political position?
Bennett is in the same class as Rand Paul (also think of Rand:s position on the peace process, it is not the USA:s right to decide for Israel how to act…)
Netanyahu is kind of the same class as Lindsey Graham, John Mccain etc. (also with regard to the peace process!!!)
And of course Lapid & Co. is mostly in line with democrats.
SO, COMMENTS?
Israel also has issues with their draft army that the US doesn’t have anymore. There are certainly pros (able to rapidly raise a huge army) but there are cons. Compulsory service tends to lead to more financial waste than professional armies even just in the selection process. It also tends to focus on numbers above equipment. The fact that the 60-ton Namer APC has not been fully adopted and the thinly-armored and ancient M113 is still in widespread use is indicative. Part of the reform Bennett wants may involve making the army smaller in order to have money for better equipment coupled with more extensive training- in other words, moving slowly towards a more professional army. I’m guessing Netanyahu, Bennett and Lieberam are on essentially the same page privately. They all know the next war will be in Lebanon and fighting Hezbollah/Iran requires better training and equipment but not at the cost of crushing economic growth. Currently, they’re content to let Lapid flounder around while Ya’alon presents his shopping list.
Is there any real reason to think that Kachalon will ACTUALLY run with a party of his own in the next elections? That is, one would maybe not think he would if Netanyahu still leads Likud.
Kahlon sort of became irrelevant due to the events of the summer. I could still see a Likud-Israel Beitenu-Bayit Yehudi-Kahlon coalition (63) plus EITHER Lapid/Livni OR Shas/UTJ depending on who’s cheaper with their demands. Of course, Likud-Israel Beitenu-Bayit Yehudi-Shas-UTJ seems most likely if the numbers hold. Netanyahu likes the Haredi parties since they will never, ever produce a viable PM candidate to rival him.