Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on Sept 11 2014.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
29 [19] Likud
18 [12] Bayit Yehudi
15 [15] Labor
11 [19] Yesh Atid
10 [06] Meretz
09 [12] Yisrael Beitenu
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [11] Shas
04 [06] Movement
03 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
71 [61] Right-Religious
49 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.
Reminder: MK Shama (Likud) resignation has lowered Likud from 20 seats to 19 seats. MK Miller (Yisrael Beitenu) who took the seat raises his party from 11 seats to 12 seats.
Additional Questions:
Do you feel that ISIS is a threat?
39% A threat, 31% Serious threat, 26% Not a threat
Do you trust President Obama to lead the fight against ISIS?
70% No, 26% Yes
Do you think President Obama is a strong leader in regards to managing the US foreign affairs?
41% Weak, 36% Very weak, 21% Strong
Do you think the US should cooperate with Iran to resolve the ISIS threat?
44% No, 36% Yes
Will the new Bayit Yehudi Party Constitution strengthen or weaken the party?
48% Don’t know, 29% Weaken, 23% Strengthen
Among Bayit Yehudi voters – 55% Strengthen, 29% Don’t know, 16% Weaken
Should Bayit Yehudi open itself up to new audiences that are not religious Zionist Jews?
60% Yes, 21% No
Among Bayit Yehudi voters – 73% Yes, 18% No
Should Defense Budget be increased?
50% Yes, 40% No
What subject bothers you the most in the Israeli education system?
43% Violence at schools, 17% Quality of teachers, 12% Classroom density
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
yeh, still more of the same.
one thing though – i do not get why labor has such big problem rebounding from that low 14-15 – one would think that they realistically has bigger support (like 17-18 or so). But this is good like this as long as it holds
I’m not surprised. Labor is a dinosaur. I would bet if you looked at the average age of the Labor voter, it would skew older than the average Israeli. Demographic shifts and immigration have probably hurt it more than it’s willing to admit. They have not won an election since 1999 and they haven’t even been above 20 MKs since. It looks like the hardcore leftists are drifting into Meretz which deprives Labor of potential rank-and-file activists. I’d bet Meretz skews much younger than Labor.15-16 MKs might actually be Labor’s new ceiling, not its floor. I suppose Livni’s party could merge with Labor which could bolster its numbers for one election cycle, but it would it would just be Labor+Movement trying to preserve what it already has as opposed to growing. In a way Labor is sort of like UTJ with a fairly inelastic electorate set in its ways. The only difference is that UTJ’s voters aren’t dying from old age faster than they can be replaced.
Why do you think that? Last two elections 13 and 15.
Assuming there’s not going to be a new glut of voters:
Bayit Yehudi must be increasing at the expense of Yisrael Beitenu, Shas, Otzma voters and perhaps even a bit from Likud. That might account for the 5-7 seat increase. I doubt the new constitution will have any effect, positive or negative. Potentially getting the Druze into BY might be good for an extra MK and will soften the party’s image compared to other “far-right” (a term I hate unless it’s Golden Dawn or Jobbick) parties like Otzma/Kahanists which have a distinctly unfriendly edge to them (at least in public perception).
Likud must be increasing mostly from Yesh Atid, Israel Beitenu, maybe Kadima, and Amsellem (who joined Likud earlier in the year). It might be losing some to BY but those losses are more than mitigated. I’ve got to think that most of Yesh Atid’s lost voters are going to Likud. Nothing else makes sense numerically. I would imagine Likud is just a step to the right for Yesh Atid or Kadima voters, whereas Bayit Yehudi is a few steps to the right. A 10 MK increase is huge but it is somewhat returning to a historical norm for Likud.
Meretz must be increasing from Movement and maybe even some elements of Hadash. I can see the Jews from Hadash moving into Meretz if Hadash keeps losing its Communist identity and hewing towards the more militant Arab nationalist ideology of Balad and Ra’am Ta’al. I have a hard time believing that a voter could go from Yesh Atid to Meretz. If a voter wanted to go left from Yesh Atid, then Labor would a logical step to the left whereas Meretz is several steps to the left. It’s possible that some Labor voters are going into Meretz but enough Yesh Atid voters are moving into Labor to mitigate the loss. Meretz’s best showing was in 1992 with 12 seats so 10 seats is not crazy.
UTJ might just be statistical noise or “natural growth.” The extra seat might come from Shas, though I’m not sure if a Shas voter would vote UTJ, even though they are close allies. 8 seats would be its best showing ever and 5-6 seems to be its average.
Thank you Naes for your analysis. Seriously.
What does Jeremy have to say? Especially about the new BY constitution.