Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Panels conducted a poll that was published by Maariv on Sept 24 2014.

Two polls were conducted, with and without Kachlon Party.

Results without Kachlon Party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [19] Likud

19 [12] Bayit Yehudi

17 [15] Labor

11 [19] Yesh Atid

09 [12] Yisrael Beitenu

09 [06] Meretz

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [11] Shas

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

69 [61] Right-Religious

51 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.

Results with Kachlon Party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [19] Likud

17 [12] Bayit Yehudi

13 [15] Labor

11 [–] Kachhlon

09 [06] Meretz

08 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [12] Yisrael Beitenu

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [11] Shas

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

75 [61] Right-Religious

45 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.

Additional Questions:

Who would you like to see lead the country in the future?

24% Prime Minister Netanyahu, 11% Economy Minister Bennett, 9% Former Likud Minister Kachlon, 7% Opposition Leader Herzog, , 5% Justice Minister Livni, 4% Foreign Minister Liberman , 4% Interior Minister Saar, 3% Finance Minister Lapid, 2% Defense Minister Yaalon.

Who is most trustworthy in your eyes?

17% Former Likud Minister Kachlon, 11% Prime Minister Netanyahu, 10% Economy Minister Bennett, 10% Opposition Leader Herzog, 8% Interior Minister Saar, 7% Defense Minister Yaalon, 6% Justice Minister Livni, 4% Foreign Minister Liberman , 3% Finance Minister Lapid, 24% don’t know.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: As expected, with the agenda moving away from defense and on to domestic politics Kachlon does better. He get 11 seats in this poll, 6 seats in the Smith poll. He is taking from Likud, Labor, Bayit Yehudi, Yisrael Beitenu and Yesh Atid.

So this poll tells us what many Israelis know, they don’t trust Netanyahu but they do support him over any other candidate. It is another poll that reminds us how popular Gidon Saar is and brings us to question why he was not one of the ministers listed on these polls in the past, despite his position as #2 in Likud over the last 5 years.

Smith conducted a poll that was published by Globes on Sept 24 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [19] Likud

15 [12] Bayit Yehudi

14 [15] Labor

11 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [12] Yisrael Beitenu

09 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [06] Meretz

06 [–] Kachhlon

05 [04] Hadash

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

72 [61] Right-Religious

48 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.

Additional Questions:

Who are the ministers that you are most pleased with this year?

19% Economy Minister Bennett, 16% Finance Minister Lapid, 11% Interior Minister Saar, 10% Foreign Minister Liberman, 7% Defense Minister Yaalon, all other ministers 5% or less, 45% didn’t pick any minister.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud once again finds itself at 25 seats. Economy Minister Bennett’s Bayit Yehudi is in second place with 15 seats. It should be noted that out of the nine polling companies Smith usually polls Bayit Yehudi the lowest. This is the first Smith poll that has Bayit Yehudi in second place by itself and not in a tie for second with Labor. Opposition Leader Herzog’s Labor is still ahead of Finance Minister Lapid’s Yesh Atid who has been gaining ground in last week or so. Foreign Minister Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu finishes in fifth place in this poll.

According to this poll Saar is the third most popular minister & Likud’s most popular minister. There is no doubt that will have an impact of Likud’s numbers in the short term. Consistency is most likely the reason behind Minister Bennett’s number 1 ranking among ministers.

Two polls were broadcast/published this weekend following Saar’s intent to resign before the Knesset winter session opens on Oct 27 2014.

Panels poll was broadcast by Channel 2 television:

Of the following list of people who do you prefer to see as Prime Minister?

23% Prime Minister Netanyahu (Likud), 13% Economy Minister Bennett (Bayit Yehudi), 9% Foreign Minister Liberman (Yisrael Beitenu), 9% Opposition Leader Herzog (Labor), 8% Justice Minister Livni (Movement), 6% Former Opposition Leader Yachamovich (Labor), 3% Inteior Minister Saar (Likud), 3% Finance Minister Lapid (Yesh Atid), 2% Defense Minister Yaalon (Likud), 1% Communications Minister Erdan (Likud), 0% Transporation Minister Yisrael Katz (Likud), 0% Education Minister Piron (Yesh Atid).

Dialog poll was published by Haaretz newspaper (498 people, 4.4% margin of error):

Who do you think is most fit to be Prime Minister?

38% Prime Minister Netanyahu (Likud), 7% Opposition Leader Herzog (Labor),  6% Foreign Minister Liberman (Yisrael Beitenu), 5% Economy Minister Bennett (Bayit Yehudi), 5% Former Minister Kachlon, 5% Inteior Minister Saar (Likud), 5% Justice Minister Livni (Movement), 4% Finance Minister Lapid (Yesh Atid).

Additional Questions:

Following Interior Minister Gidon Saar’s announcement that he intends on resigning, does the chance that you will vote Likud: increase, decrease or not change?

80% Not change, 15% Decrease chance I will vote Likud, 3% Don’t know, 2% Increase chance I vote Likud

Are you considering voting for Kachlon’s party?

65% No, 19% Don’t Know, 16% Yes

If Gidon Saar joins a party with Kachlon will you consider voting for the joint party?

58% No, 19% Don’t Know, 23% Yes
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: I have been requested to reveal more of an “insider’s look” into the polls. The difference in the PM question of “prefer” vs “fit” is a great way of how you can ask the same question while receiving different results, in politics we call that manipulating a question. Gidon Saar is resigning, just as Kachlon did, as the most popular Likud minister in the government. According to the Haaretz poll, a joint Saar-Kachlon ticket would increase Kahlon’s chances by 7% in terms of voters who would consider voting that party. Consider voting for vs voting for is another great poll question example of how you can influence a result.

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on Sept 18 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [19] Likud

20 [12] Bayit Yehudi

16 [15] Labor

12 [19] Yesh Atid

09 [06] Meretz

08 [12] Yisrael Beitenu

08 [11] Shas

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

69 [61] Right-Religious

51 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Interesting poll. Likud is at a 4-month low with 25 seats. Bayit Yehudi captures 20 seats in this poll. I believe this is the first public poll in which Bayit Yehudi has received 20 seats since it was founded in 2008. The poll was conducted yesterday and last night, so there is an impact in terms of Gidon Saar’s announcement of intent to resign before the Knesset opens Oct 27. A poll earlier this week polled Yesh Atid at 8 seats, here they poll higher (12).

Additional Questions:

Who is most fit to be Prime Minister?

24% Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, 16% Economy Minister Naftali Bennett, 10% Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman, 10% Opposition Leader Yitzhak Herzog, 8% Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, 4% Finance Minister Yair Lapid, 2% Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll that was broadcast by Channel 10 on Sept 15 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
26 [19] Likud
16 [12] Bayit Yehudi
14 [12] Yisrael Beitenu
13 [15] Labor
10 [11] Shas
08 [19] Yesh Atid
07 [–] New Kachalon Party
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [06] Meretz
05 [06] Movement
10 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad
00 [02] Kadima

79 [61] Right-Religious
41 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The three right wing parties in the top three spots with 79 seats for the bloc. We are seeing some polling companies that are showing these type of results (Geocartography being another one), while others such as Panels and Smith are showing the right-religious bloc closer to 70 (instead of 80).