Geocartography conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.5% error rate that was published by Jerusalem Post & Maariv on August 29th 2014.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
32 [19] Likud
18 [12] Bayit Yehudi
17 [12] Yisrael Beitenu
12 [15] Labor
10 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
09 [19] Yesh Atid
07 [11] Shas
06 [06] Meretz
05 [03] Balad
04 [04] Hadash
00 [06] Movement
00 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
00 [02] Kadima
84 [61] Right-Religious
36 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Note: This poll was conducted according new 3.25% threshold.
* Reminder: MK Shama (Likud) resignation has lowered Likud from 20 seats to 19 seats. MK Miller (Yisrael Beitenu) who took the seat raises his party from 11 seats to 12 seats.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
I get why it is possible that the right-religious can gain so many seats as Movement, Ra’am-Ta’al and Kadima falls under the threshold, but why is not Meretz, Labor and Yesh Atid gaining more seats (- that is strange)?
Although I am not complaining – would love this scenario to be the result and enough for Likud, BY and YB to form a government.
UTJ at 10 seems unlikely, it must be an all-time high.
Most likely Ra’am-Ta’al & Livni both get 3 seats each in this poll. If you subtract 6 left seats the poll makes a bit more sense, although it still seems high. I don’t see Ra’am-Ta’al getting under 4 seats.
Remember that many Yesh Atid voters were right wing voters who wanted a center party. That is the main reason the right bloc went down from 65 seats in 2009 to 61 seats in 2013. I don’t see those voters going back to Yesh Atid a second time and that is why I believe a right block of around 70 seats is likely in next elections, especially with Kahlon coming into the mix.
This isn’t the first poll that allows for a Netanyahu-Bennett-Liberman coalition without anyone else, however 84 seats for the right bloc has to be the highest we have seen this term.
I remember that there has been others polls like this but 84 seats is maybe not realistic (?).
I’ve seen 78-80 but I believe 84 is a high.
With the war so popular (not at this moment, admittedly), why is Meretz doing so well? They are the only ones carping about it from the Left.
Meretz doing well? They are stuck at 6 seats (are usually at 9-10 seats). I would say that the party is doing really bad in this poll.
Indeed the war has caused Meretz to drop.
Well, there’s my answer, then.
UTJ 10? Honestly? (Mind you, not that it bothers me in any way, but it seems excessive.)
The one thing bothering me about the UTJ number continually being 7 and above is that I know that this was a maximal, all-out effort and every possible vote (except for some that went to alternative parties) was squeezed out; people who never voted on principle voted this time.
How long can this be kept up?
That number also got me confused. I would guess that UTJ could in the reality get a maximum of 8 seats (dependent on how many votes that is not counted, etc.).
I said in a previous comment, UTJ at 10 has to be an all-time-high. The margin of error could bring them down to 8 or 7 which would make more sense. The national growth of the UTJ voting public is something that is helpful for them, as well as some former Strong Israel voters who will choose UTJ over Bayit Yehudi.
You mean that Otzma voters would really rather vote for UTJ than Bayit Yehudi, despite the fact that there is tthe (big?) risk that UTJ supports land withdrawals?
You have to remember that many Otzma voters were Haredi, not national religious
So this is a “new threshold” poll. I’d like to see every poll as such – I don’t know how they get away with using the old threshold. The polls need to get working on their new guidelines.
I explained the thought process of these pollsters. They feel that many of the current parties will not be running in the same formats for the next elections anyways. They want to measure the current parties in the system they were elected in. When new elections are called and things change, they will adopt the new threshold.
OK, Thank you.
Your welcome. I still disagree with their outlook but it is important that people understand why they are doing it.