Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on July 31st 2014.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
30 [20] Likud
18 [12] Bayit Yehudi
15 [15] Labor
10 [19] Yesh Atid
10 [06] Meretz
09 [11] Shas
08 [11] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [06] Movement
03 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
72 [61] Right-Religious
48 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud is on top with 30 seats. Economy Minister Naftali Bennett’s Bayit Yehudi comes in second with 18 seats in the Panels poll, compared to 13 seats in the Smith poll. Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu has 8 seats in the Panels poll, compared to 13 seats in the Smith poll. The explanation of this unusual 5-seat difference between Panels & Smith in regards to recent polls for both parties following the Likud Beitenu split can be explained simply that most likely the actual result is in the middle of both polling systems margin of error.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Two questions:
1. Before the last election, all the polls underestimated Yesh Atid by about 7 seats. How do we know they have it right now?
2. Before the election in 09, Yisrael Beytenu was polling at 18-20, then in the election 15. Do you think Bayit Yehudi is in a similar situation now?
There is a prohibition of polls 5 days before elections. Yesh Atid had a swing in their favor during last days of elections. Polls that couldn’t be published showed that.
Yisrael Beitenu dropped a few seats from a high polling of 21 to an actual showing of 15 seats because of the surge of Kadima (who did finish with one more seat than Likud in the end). Bayit Yehudi could meet a similar threat.
Never saw any polls that showed a Yesh Atid swing, always asumed that the polls were wrongs due to not getting enough cell phones (Lapid’s base is younger voters who don’t have home phones).
I thought the Kadima surge in 09 was at the expense of Avoda?
Yesh Atid swing happened during time polls could not be published. Polls were taken and the trend was there. Exit polls also showed that Yesh Atid won the largest share of undecided votes (as center parties tend to do).There were plenty of internet-based and cell-phone based polls taken, not just telephone polls.
Kadima’s late “surge” in 2009 was based on the “Livni or Bibi” campaign. In reality Kadima dropped a seat from 29 to 28, but remained the largest party. Labor dropped six seats (from 19 to 13) and Meretz dropped to 3 seats. The Senior Citizen Party fell under the threshold. To compensate on the right Liberman, NRP & NU all dropped in the last week before elections and gave Likud a big bump (from 12 to 27).
We’ll see how long these numbers hold out now that it appears the military operation is winding down or not winding down or redeploying or ceasefiring; I don’t know- Netanyahu is being intentionally opaque about his intentions. I wonder when the goodwill he’s generated will dry up when people realize he has zero intention of eliminating Hamas and/or actually disarming the Strip. I get the feeling that Bayit Yehudi and Yisrael Beitenu will benefit politically from the Gaza operation due to their harder line stance at the expense of Likud. 72 seats for the right/religious and 78 in the previous poll seems like an unsustainable blip given. They would be overjoyed with 68 seats.
You may be right… hopefully…
Yet another poll giving right 72 seats…
If the polls in Israel must always be given a relative value (remember a week before the 2013 elections it gaves 70 deputies to the right / religious bloc and were 61 and thanks) now more because everything is heavily influenced by the present war. And we dont know yet electoral candidatures (Kadima, Hatnua o Balad merge with other parties), etc..
You can’t publish polls within 5 days before elections. unpublished polls showed Yesh Atid surge at expense of right parties.
There will be new parties (Kachalon, splits (Shas), and mergers (Livni)