Tag Archive: politics


100 days to government Poll #2: Likud Beitenu 25, Labor 20, Yesh Atid 17, Bayit Yehudi 15, Shas/Meretz 9

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 4 Comments
June 21, 2013

Panels conducted a poll broadcast on June 20 2013 by Channel 99.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [31] Likud Beitenu
20 [15] Labor
17 [19] Yesh Atid
15 [12] Bayit Yehudi
09 [11] Shas
09 [06] Mertez
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
03 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
03 [02] Kadima
03 [06] Movement
03 [00] Strong Israel

58 [61] Right-Religious
61 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: Poll come out to 119 seats instead of 120

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Six parties polling in at three seats which would be under the electoral threshold if the threshold is raised.

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Report: Probable look at Netanyahu government and his 21 ministers

Filed under: Daily Updates, Knesset — 7 Comments
March 13, 2013

Report: Probable look at Netanyahu government, his 21 ministers and 8 deputy ministers.

 

Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud) Prime Minister , Minister of Foreign Affairs

 

Moshe Ya`alon (Likud) Minister of Defense

Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) Minister of Finance

Naftali Bennett (Bayit Yehudi) Minister of Economy, Industry, Trade, and Labor, Minister of Religious Services, Minister of Diaspora Affairs and Jerusalem

 

Tzipi Livni (Livni Party) Minister of Justice

Gideon Sa`ar (Likud) Minister of Internal Affairs

Shai Piron (Yesh Atid) Minister of Education

 

Yitzhak Aharonovitch (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Internal Security

Uri Ariel (Bayit Yehudi) Minister of Housing and Construction

Yael German  (Yesh Atid) Minister of Health

 

Uzi Landau (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Tourism

Yisrael Katz (Likud) Minister of Transportation, National Infrastructure, and Road Safety

Gilad Erdan (Likud) Minister of Communications and Minister of Home Front Defence

Yaakov Perry (Yesh Atid) Minister of Science and Technology

Limor Livnat (Likud) Minister of Culture and Sport

 

Yair Shamir (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development

Meir Cohen (Yesh Atid) Minister of Welfare and Social Services

Uri Orbach (Bayit Yehudi) Minister for Senior Citizens

Amir Peretz (Livni Party) Minister of Environmental Protection

Sofa Landver (Yisrael Beitenu) Minister of Immigrant Absorption

 

** Silvan Shalom (Likud) Minister of Energy and Water, Minister of the Development of the Negev and Galil, (possibly Minister of Regional Cooperation)

** Yuval Steinitz (Likud) Minister of Intelligence and Atomic Energy and Minister of Strategic Affairs

 

** = Pending

 

Reported Defense Ministers:

Deputy Defense Danon (Likud)

Deputy Foreign Elkin (Likud)

Deputy Education Vortzman (Bayit Yehudi)

Deputy Religious Ben Dahan (Bayit Yehudi)

Deputy Welfare Minister Levy (Yesh Atid)

Deputy Minister Akunis (Likud)

+ 2 more

 

* I will update this page as thing change.

 

I’m looking forward to Monday, that is most likely the day we will swear in a new government. Coalition deals should be on Knesset table Sunday. There is a 24-hour period in between.

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Knesset Jeremy 2009 Election Poll Analysis: Part 2

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — Leave a comment
January 17, 2013

Results of the 6 smaller parties of the 12 that were elected, along with adjusted error rates.

Range of polling company errors was from 14 ro 25.5 seats of Knesset’s 120 seats.

Part 1: https://knessetjeremy.com/2013/01/16/knesset-jeremy-2009-election-poll-analysis/

 

Polling   Company/Party Raam-Taal Hadash N. Union J. Home Balad Meretz Error Rate
Actual   Results 4 4 4 3 3 3 0
Correct   Guesses 2 of 10 6 of 10 5 of 10 5 of 10 2 of 10 0 of 10 10 of 10
Panels 3 4 4 3 2 6 14
Maagar   Mochot 3 3 2 3 3 5 15
Smith 3.5 4 3.5 3.5 3 5 15.5
Dialog   1 3 3 4 2 2 7 18
Dialog   2 3 3 4 2 2 6 18
Midgam   (Meno Gava) 4 4 3 3 2 5 18
Teleseker 4 4 3 3 2 6 20
Shvakim   Panorama 3 4 4 4 2 5 20
Dahaf 3 4 4 3 2 5 20
Gal   Hadash/New Wave 3 5 3 2 0 6 24
Geocartography 3 5 6 2 0 5 25.5
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Knesset Jeremy 2009 Election Poll Analysis

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 2 Comments
January 16, 2013

Knesset Jeremy 2009 Election Poll Analysis

12 lists were elected in 2009.

10 polling companies conducted 11 polls (one company took out two) in the last 2 days that polling was allowed ahead of the Israeli election.

Below is a table of the top 6 parties.

Polling   Company/Party Kadima Likud YB Labor Shas UTJ Error Rate
Actual Results 28 27 15 13 11 5 0
Correct Guesses 0 of 10 2 of 10 0 of 10 1 of 10 1 of 10 6 of 10 10 of 10
Panels 25 26 18 14 10 5 9
Maagar Mochot 24 27 18 13 10 6 9
Dialog 1 25 27 18 14 9 6 10
Dialog 2 25 27 19 14 9 6 11
Smith 23 26 17.5 15.5 10 5 12
Gal Hadash 24 30 17 16 9 5 14
Midgam (Meno Gava) 23 28 19 16 10 5 14
Teleseker 23 26 19 17 10 5 15
Shvakim Panorama 21 25 16 16 11 7 15
Geocartography 22.5 26 20.5 15.5 10 5 15.5
Dahaf 23 25 19 16 10 6 16

Error Rate: How many seats they were off in total

Findings: Panels and Maagar Mochot tied with lowest error rate of 9 seats among the 6 largest parties vs Mina Tzemach’s Dahaf which had the highest error rate of 16 seats.

Polling of the 6 smaller parties proved more difficult. Ra’am-Ta’al, Hadash, National Union, Jewish Home, Meretz and Balad all received either 3 or 4 seats and gathered between 114,000 to 83,000 votes overall. Maagar Mochot was one of the polling companies that got things very wrong when it came to the smaller parties.

Overall, my conclusion stands that Menachem Lazar’s Panels is the most trusted polling company and Mina Tzemeach’s Dahaf is the most overrated.

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Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #7: Likud Beitenu 38, Labor 21.4, Shas 11.8, Yesh Atid 11.1, NU-JH 9.5

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 1 Comment
November 25, 2012

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #7 (week of Nov 18-24) of 7 polls (3 Channel 2 polls, Ma’ariv, Ha’aretz, Knesset Channel and ICPT):

Current Knesset seats in [brackets], Week 5 average in (brackets)

38.0 (37.0) [42] Likud Beitenu
21.4 (21.5) [08] Labor
11.8 (11.0) [10] Shas
11.1 (13.0) [–] Yesh Atid
9.5 (11.0) [05] National Union-Jewish Home
5.7 (5.0) [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
4.0 (4.5) [03] Meretz
3.8 (3.5) [04] Hadash
3.5 (3.0) [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
3.2 (3.5) [03] Balad
2.7 (2.5) [01] Am Shalem
1.8 (2.5) [05] Independence
1.4 (0.0) [02] Strong Israel
1.0 (2.0) [28] Kadima

69.5 (66.5) [65] Right
50.8 (53.5) [55] Center-Left

Note: I didn’t include Livni Party scenario polls because she has not announced yet the formation of her party. Deadline for all parties to submit their lists is December 6th.

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