Jeremy's Knesset Insider

My Guess Poll

33 Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
16 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
15 Labor
10 Shas
09 Yesh Atid
07 Movement
06 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 Hadash
05 Ra’am-Ta’al
04 Kadima
04 Meretz
03 Balad
03 Strong Israel

Am Shalem and others don’t pass threshold

68 Right-Religious
52 Center-Left-Arab

* I predict a 22 seat shift from avg of polls but I don’t predict any shift that is larger than 3 seats.

* I don’t have time to explain my picks but I should be allowed to explain how I got to my picks after the deadline. As I had mentioned before, Israeli law forbids predicting results or publishing polls after today.
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Final Seats accourding to avg of polls, voting swaps and lost votes:

35 Likud Beitenu
18 Labor
15 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
12 Yesh Atid
11 Shas
07 Movement
06 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 Meretz
04 Hadash
03 Ra’am-Ta’al
03 Balad

67 Right-Religious
53 Center-Left-Arab

Kadima, Strong Israel, Am Shalem and others don’t pass 2.4% threshold.

Poll of Polls: https://knessetjeremy.com/2013/01/18/knesset-jeremy-poll-of-polls-likud-beitenu-33-7-labor-16-5-bayit-yehudi-14-0-yesh-atid-10-9-shas-10-6-movement-7-2/#comment-1648

Knesset Jeremy – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #15 (week of Jan 12-18 2013) of 16 polls (3 Panels, 2 Maagar Mochot, 2 Smith, 2 Midgam, 2 Dahaf, 2 Dialog, Teleseker, New Wave, Geocartography)

Current Knesset seats in [brackets], Week 14 average in (brackets):

33.7 (34.0) [42] Likud Beitenu
16.5 (17.3) [08] Labor
14.0 (14.2) [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
10.9 (10.3) [—] Yesh Atid
10.6 (10.3) [10] Shas
7.2 (7.8) [07] Movement
5.8 (6.0) [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
5.7 (4.8) [03] Meretz
3.9 (3.7) [04] Hadash
3.5 (3.6) [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
3.4 (3.3) [03] Balad
2.3 (1.4) [21] Kadima
1.9 (1.2) [02] Strong Israel
0.6 (1.0) [01] Am Shalem
— (0.0) [05] Independence (No longer running)

66.3 (67.07) [65] Right-Religious
53.6 (52.92) [55] Center-Left-Arab

Changes from week 14 to week 15:
Yesh Atid passes Shas for 4th place.

Largest Gains: Kadima and Meretz gained 0.9 of a seat each, Meretz and Strong Israel gained 0.7.

Biggest Losses: Labor lost 0.8 of a seat and Movement lost 0.6 of a seat.

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Final Seats accourding to avg of polls, voting swaps and lost votes:

35 Likud Beitenu
18 Labor
15 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
12 Yesh Atid
11 Shas
7 Movement
6 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
6 Meretz
4 Hadash
3 Ra’am-Ta’al
3 Balad

67 Right-Religious
53 Center-Left-Arab

Kadima, Strong Israel, Am Shalem and others don’t pass 2.0% threshold of 2.4 seats.

* Next post will include my “Guess Poll”.

Panels conducted a poll that was published by the Yisrael Post/Sof Hashauva on Jan 18 2013. Supposedly, this was the last poll conuducted by any company before the deadline.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
16 [08] Labor
14 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
11 [—] Yesh Atid
10 [10] Shas
07 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
03 [02] Strong Israel
02 [21] Kadima
01 [01] Am Shalem (not passing)
00 [05] Independence (not running)

67 [65] Right-Religious
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab

* 8 seats don’t pass Knesset thanks to Am Shalem, Green Leaf, Koach Lahaspia, Eretz Hadasha, Greens who all have around a seat each. There are other small parties that eat up votes.

* 10% are still undecided

Smith conducted a poll that was published by the Jpost.com (Jerusalem Post) on Jan 18 2013. The poll was conducted Wed and Thurs night.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17 [08] Labor
14 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
12 [—] Yesh Atid
11 [10] Shas
06 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [03] Balad
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
02 [21] Kadima
02 [01] Am Shalem
00 [02] Strong Israel (almost 2)
00 [05] Independence (not running)

66 [65] Right-Religious
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab

Dahaf conducted a poll of 1000 people with an error rate of 0.9 to 3.2 seats for Yediot Achronot that was published on Jan 18 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17 [08] Labor
13 [—] Yesh Atid
12 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
11 [10] Shas
08 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
02 [21] Kadima
02 [02] Strong Israel
00 [01] Am Shalem
00 [05] Independence (not running)

63 [65] Right-Religious
57 [55] Center-Left-Arab

Dialog conducted a poll for Haaertz that was published on Jan 17 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17 [08] Labor
14 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
12 [10] Shas
12 [—] Yesh Atid
08 [07] Movement
06 [03] Meretz
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [04] Hadash
04 [03] Balad
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
02 [21] Kadima
01 [02] Strong Israel (1.4%) not passing
01 [01] Am Shalem (1%) not passing
00 [05] Independence (not running)

63 [65] Right-Religious
57 [55] Center-Left-Arab

Green Leaf 1%, Koach Lahaspia 0.8%, Eretz Hadasha 0.5%, Hayisraelim 0.4%, Greens 0.1%.

Smith conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.5% error rate for Jerusalem Post/Globes that was published on Jan 17 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17 [08] Labor
13 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
11 [10] Shas
11 [—] Yesh Atid
07 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [03] Balad
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
02 [21] Kadima
02 [02] Strong Israel
00 [01] Am Shalem
00 [05] Independence (not running)

66 [65] Right-Religious
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab

Eretz Hadasha and Green Leaf 1 seat each

Panels conducted a poll of 707 people with a 3.4.% error rate for Knesset Channel that was broadcast on Jan 17 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
16 [08] Labor
14 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
11 [—] Yesh Atid
10 [10] Shas
07 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [21] Kadima
03 [03] Balad
02 [02] Strong Israel
02 [01] Am Shalem (1.9%) – not passing 2% threshold
00 [05] Independence (not running)

66 [65] Right-Religious
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab

Green Leaf (1.8%), Eretz Hadasha (1.4%) Koach Lahaspia (0.9%)

Geocartography conducted a poll with for Israeli Radio that was broadcast on Jan 17 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17.5 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
16 [08] Labor
10.5 [—] Yesh Atid
10 [10] Shas
06 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
05 [03] Balad
04 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
02 [21] Kadima
02 [02] Strong Israel
00 [01] Am Shalem
00 [05] Independence (not running)

67.5 [65] Right-Religious
52.5 [55] Center-Left-Arab