Knesset Jeremy 2009 Election Poll Analysis

12 lists were elected in 2009.

10 polling companies conducted 11 polls (one company took out two) in the last 2 days that polling was allowed ahead of the Israeli election.

Below is a table of the top 6 parties.

Polling   Company/Party Kadima Likud YB Labor Shas UTJ Error Rate
Actual Results 28 27 15 13 11 5 0
Correct Guesses 0 of 10 2 of 10 0 of 10 1 of 10 1 of 10 6 of 10 10 of 10
Panels 25 26 18 14 10 5 9
Maagar Mochot 24 27 18 13 10 6 9
Dialog 1 25 27 18 14 9 6 10
Dialog 2 25 27 19 14 9 6 11
Smith 23 26 17.5 15.5 10 5 12
Gal Hadash 24 30 17 16 9 5 14
Midgam (Meno Gava) 23 28 19 16 10 5 14
Teleseker 23 26 19 17 10 5 15
Shvakim Panorama 21 25 16 16 11 7 15
Geocartography 22.5 26 20.5 15.5 10 5 15.5
Dahaf 23 25 19 16 10 6 16

Error Rate: How many seats they were off in total

Findings: Panels and Maagar Mochot tied with lowest error rate of 9 seats among the 6 largest parties vs Mina Tzemach’s Dahaf which had the highest error rate of 16 seats.

Polling of the 6 smaller parties proved more difficult. Ra’am-Ta’al, Hadash, National Union, Jewish Home, Meretz and Balad all received either 3 or 4 seats and gathered between 114,000 to 83,000 votes overall. Maagar Mochot was one of the polling companies that got things very wrong when it came to the smaller parties.

Overall, my conclusion stands that Menachem Lazar’s Panels is the most trusted polling company and Mina Tzemeach’s Dahaf is the most overrated.

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