Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Smith conducted a poll that was published by Globes on July 31st 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [20] Likud

14 [15] Labor

13 [12] Bayit Yehudi

13 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

11 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [06] Meretz

06 [–] Kachalon Party

04 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [06] Movement

00 [02] Kadima

78 [61] Right-Religious-Kachalon

43 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: There are 120 seats, this poll comes out to 121 seats, it is not clear which party would lose a seat.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud has a great showing with 31 seats, the same number he won 18 months ago with an alliance with Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu. The split works out well for both sides as Liberman grows from 11 seats to 13. The combined Likud-Yisrael Beitenu combo of 44 seats is a collective growth of 13 seats. This poll allows for a Netanyahu-Liberman-Bennett-Kachalon coalition of 63 seats, without the need for the Shas, UTJ or Yesh Atid parties.

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on July 17^th 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [20] Likud

19 [12] Bayit Yehudi

15 [15] Labor

11 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [06] Meretz

08 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [11] Shas

06 [–] Kachalon Party

05 [06] Movement

03 [04] Hadash

03 [03] Balad

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

00 [02] Kadima

70 [61] Right-Religious-Kachalon

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud remains number 1. Current trends continue, Bayit Yehudi remains in second and receives 19 seats in this poll. Center-left bloc continues their drop, as expected during wartime. Kachalon is included in this poll, as is the old 2% threshold. The larger parties would see their seats increase if you did not include Kachalon and the poll was conducted with the new 3.25% threshold.

10 Additional Questions:

Should we conduct a ground operation in Gaza now?

63% Yes, 27% No

Do you believe that Israel can topple the Hamas regime in Gaza?

58% Yes, 35% No

Do you think that business owners that sustained damage during Operation Protective Edge will receive adequate financial compensation from the government?

55% No, 33% Yes

Are you pleased or not pleased from the conduct of the following people during Operation Protective Edge?

IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz: Pleased 75%, Not Pleased 14%
Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon: Pleased 59%, Not Pleased 32%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: Pleased 53%, Not Pleased 43%
Economy Minister Naftali Bennett: Pleased 43%, Not Pleased 48%
Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman: Pleased 38%, Not Pleased 57%
Finance Minister Yair Lapid: Pleased 33%, Not Pleased 52%

Other factors such as Justice Minister Livni & Opposition Leader Herzog were not polled.

Should the Prime Minister form a national unity government with the opposition parties to strengthen him during this operation?

60% No, 28% Yes

Did Prime Minister Netanyahu act correctly by firing Deputy Defense Minister Danon following Danon’s comments against the security cabinet decision?

Acted correctly 51%, did not act correctly 33%.

Among Likud voters: 54% Acted correctly, 24% did not act correctly.

Are Foreign Minister Liberman’s comments against the Prime Minister, against the security cabinet decision for a ceasefire and other decisions appropriate or not appropriate?

61% Not appropriate, 29% appropriate.

Is Israeli Hasbara succeeding in achieving international support for Operation Protective Edge?

51% No, 41% Yes

Should the Israeli government at some point work towards a ceasefire?

65% No, 27% Yes

Have you been in an area where a siren sounded since the beginning of Operation Protective Edge?

87% Yes, 13% No

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: 87% of Israelis have been under a siren, 65% reject a ceasefire, 63% support a ground operation, 58% feel IDF can topple Hamas. 51% support Netanyahu decision to fire Danon and 61% find Liberman’s behavior not appropriate.

Dialogue conducted a poll for Haaretz of 520 people, with a 4.3% margin of error on July 9th 2014 under the supervision of pollster Kamil Fox. He also took out a scenario poll in the case that Kachalon starts a party.

Poll 1: Knesset Parties as they are today

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [20] Likud

16 [12] Bayit Yehudi

15 [15] Labor

14 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

13 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

69 [61] Right-Religious

51 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Right-religious block of 69 seats is remarkable showing for Prime Minister Netanyahu & his right wing allies Foreign Minister Liberman and Economy Minister Bennett. The three right-wing parties gain 12 seats.

Poll #2: Scenario with Kachalon Party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

21 [20] Likud

16 [12] Bayit Yehudi

15 [–] Kachalon Party

13 [15] Labor

12 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

11 [19] Yesh Atid

09 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

04 [04] Hadash

00 [06] Movement

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

78 [61] Right-Religious-Kachalon

42 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: In this scenario poll the Right-religious-Kachalon block grows from 69 seats to 78 seats. Kachalon becomes the third largest party taking for Likud & Yisrael Beitenu, but more importantly taking seats from Labor, Yesh Atid, Meretz & throwing Livni’s party under the new 3.25% threshold. This is an obvious nightmare scenario for the center-left bloc.

Additional Questions:

What motivated Foreign Minister Liberman to split away from the Likud?

45% Personal political motives, 35% Principled motives, 20% Don’t know

Are you pleased or not pleased with the following public figures?

Defense Minister Yaalon: 57% Pleased, 26% Not pleased
Prime Minister Netanyahu: 40% Pleased, 50% Not pleased
Foreign Minister Liberman: 31% Pleased, 56% Not pleased
Finance Minister Lapid: 26% Pleased, 61% Not pleased
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Based on Haaretz’s last poll, Yaalon gained 3% in favorability and improved on his unfavorable numbers by 7%. Liberman’s favorability dropped 10% & his unfavorable numbers increased by 6%. Lapid & Netanyahu stayed pretty steady compared to the last poll. The other coalition factors Bennett & Livni were not polled.