Dialogue conducted a poll for Haaretz of 520 people, with a 4.3% margin of error on July 9th 2014 under the supervision of pollster Kamil Fox. He also took out a scenario poll in the case that Kachalon starts a party.
Poll 1: Knesset Parties as they are today
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
25 [20] Likud
16 [12] Bayit Yehudi
15 [15] Labor
14 [11] Yisrael Beitenu
13 [19] Yesh Atid
10 [06] Meretz
07 [11] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
04 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
00 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
69 [61] Right-Religious
51 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Right-religious block of 69 seats is remarkable showing for Prime Minister Netanyahu & his right wing allies Foreign Minister Liberman and Economy Minister Bennett. The three right-wing parties gain 12 seats.
Poll #2: Scenario with Kachalon Party
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
21 [20] Likud
16 [12] Bayit Yehudi
15 [–] Kachalon Party
13 [15] Labor
12 [11] Yisrael Beitenu
11 [19] Yesh Atid
09 [06] Meretz
07 [11] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
04 [04] Hadash
00 [06] Movement
00 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
78 [61] Right-Religious-Kachalon
42 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: In this scenario poll the Right-religious-Kachalon block grows from 69 seats to 78 seats. Kachalon becomes the third largest party taking for Likud & Yisrael Beitenu, but more importantly taking seats from Labor, Yesh Atid, Meretz & throwing Livni’s party under the new 3.25% threshold. This is an obvious nightmare scenario for the center-left bloc.
Additional Questions:
What motivated Foreign Minister Liberman to split away from the Likud?
45% Personal political motives, 35% Principled motives, 20% Don’t know
Are you pleased or not pleased with the following public figures?
Defense Minister Yaalon: 57% Pleased, 26% Not pleased
Prime Minister Netanyahu: 40% Pleased, 50% Not pleased
Foreign Minister Liberman: 31% Pleased, 56% Not pleased
Finance Minister Lapid: 26% Pleased, 61% Not pleased
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Based on Haaretz’s last poll, Yaalon gained 3% in favorability and improved on his unfavorable numbers by 7%. Liberman’s favorability dropped 10% & his unfavorable numbers increased by 6%. Lapid & Netanyahu stayed pretty steady compared to the last poll. The other coalition factors Bennett & Livni were not polled.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
where can i find these polls in the orignals and also are there daily or in fact any regular polling companies in israel?
For this poll – You can buy a Haaretz newspaper or pay their fee to get through the pay wall.
Some of the polls are broadcast on TV & you cannot find them online, that is why I provide them on my website.
There are no daily polls in Israel.
There are many regular polling companies in Israel, but most of them work on a weekly or monthly basis, except for the 90-100 days before elections.
Now it all depends if Netanyahu would prefer Kahlon or Lapid or the Haredim.
I personnaly would live to see a coalition of Likud + BY + YB + Kahlon.
Me too!
Still the question is, how Kahlon will vote on “peace”-matters. Leftwing, then he better not run. Rightwing, please do run.
One thing I still think is ironic is that in the Haaretz polls the Right-religious bloc always wins – and bigger than usual (if remember correct). Strange that Haaretz wants to give the impression that the Left is threathened – or then they just want to make the Right believe that it is “safe” – or what do you think?
Kachlon was a rebel Likud MK that went against Sharon & voted against disengagement…
The pollster Dialogue has been in different places with the blocs. Haaretz has used different polling companies also. It does seem right does better in those polls, but that might be because they don’t include Strong Israel as an option, so those votes aren’t wasted.
But do anyone really know if he would vote for the establishment of a PA-state? One could guess today that the Moshe Boogie Yaalon of today vote vote for a PA-state if Israel could e.g. keep the Jordan Valley for a long enough time …..
I wasn’t aware PA-state was on the agenda right now 🙂
I did not mean it that way – I meant that sometime in the future after the elections the peace process could come into the picture again because of pressure from EU and the Obama administration. Then it is important to have as few pro-peace votes in Knesset as possible.
I said previously that the people he chooses for his list will be a great way to learn where his positions are.
I had said that before the last elections with Lapid, and his choices of Yael German, Meir Cohen, Yaakov Perry for top 5, along with Ofer Shelech, Ronen Hoffman etc proved my point.
Do you not think it is great that BY is second biggest with or without Kahlon running?
I am surprised that I have not seen any columnists, op-eds or bloggers discuss the fact that BY is the second largest party in polls & is polling 16-18 for about a month now.
Yes, that is interesting. Do one have any reason to believe that this is the new trend? Maybe it will be after the much talked about upcoming cease-fire.
It depends what happens after the operation is over, hard to know how every politician comes out after a war.
BB would take all of them if he could.
Jeremy, as you have many times written that you think Shas will split before the election; will the two (or more) parts be so small that none of them maybe get in?
If together it’s 7, if it splits in two, unless one get’s the lions share, none will get in. Personally, I think it is more likely that Yishai camp waits patiently for Deri to take all the blame, then kick him out and take over.
Everytime Shas split one side got the lions share, look at Am Shalem. If Yishai kicks out Deri, he won’t agree to be #2 and will split himself. If Deri wins, Yishai splits. No avoiding this.
Yishai & Deri fought often, Rabbi Ovadia put in Attias to create a triangle and calm things down. Now Shas without Rabbi Ovadia and Attias is heading for a split, I feel strongly about that. I don’t think there will be more than two parts. It is possible that one or both of the parties will hook up with other parties to create a larger faction. An example could be a joint faction of Yishai Party & Tekuma. It is also possible that both run on their own, neither pass threshold or that one party might not pass.
Yishai+Tkuma would make sense, esp since it looks more likely that Tkuma will split off from BY
There are many options. I was bringing it up as one of many possible options. I think it is still likely Tekuma runs again with Bayit Yehudi. We are still in pre-election stage of polling and predictions.
I really would hope that Tekuma+BY holds. It would really be a shame to see the alliance break up.
Let’s see what happens in aftermath of new BY Constitution
How much do you think of the Likud increase (and the Right overall) is a war-time boost that will disappear after?
Also, these polls count Balad, Livni, Kadima as all not passing the 3.25% mark. But if they merge into other parties- wouldn’t that increase the Left by about 5 seats?
There are different trends involved, momentum also plays a factor, you also have the Likud-Yisrael Beitenu split.
The rally around the flag effect of the right is expected, it is possible that the votes will be redistributed between the three right-wing parties as this process goes on. The way the war/operation ends is crucial in terms of guessing if the new found support sticks. For instance, the Meretz decision to go through with their no-confidence motion during wartime could really hurt them.
We don’t know how threshold will play out. Remember right should have had more than 61 seats. Strong Israel won 2 seats, but didn’t pass 2% threshold. Am Shalem also had enough for 1 seat. Other religious & right parties such as Amnon Yitzack or Breslov also burned votes. It is possible Livni or Kadima act foolishly and burn votes on left. If Balad doesn’t merge with Ra’am-Ta’al-Ma’da, it is possible they disappear as well. Remember that vote swap agreements are also important in terms of switching the map.
All true. btw- when do expect the next election? Am getting a feeling that as soon as the military situation stabilizes the govenment will fall.
One school of thought: If war/operation goes well, BB goes for early primaries, after he is re-elected Likud chair he will try for early elections over some budget crisis.
Another school of thought: If war/operation is a mess BB will have to goto elections rather quickly because Lapid & Livni could topple him unless Haredim join a narrow coalition of 61 MKs.
Most people feel in Knesset feel that 2015 will be an election year, various opinions on early, mid or late. However, it is important to remember that last time, everyone thought 2012 was an election year and we didn’t end up going to elections until Jan 2013.
In case you are wondering, elections are scheduled for 7 November 2017. That is about 3 years and 3 months away. I do not see this government lasting another 3 years…
Yeah, I know it’s not “scheduled” til 2017- but when does Knesset ever go to term?
So basically, if Operation is success- Bibi wants an election. If not- everyone else.
Either way, election coming.
There are those that don’t agree with 2015 approach, but no one I know suggesting 2017.
Well, if the cease-fire proposal from Egypt goes through, then probably the Govt will not last long. At least Bibi’s position as Likud chairman could be threathened (?).
Firing Danon makes him an immediate challenger for Likud leadership, not the best political move…
Yes, that is for sure true. Was a little surprised by Tzipi Hotovely’s sharp (?) critisism of Danon. Will this be important in the future leadership battle, do you think?
Tzipi was brought into the party by Netanyahu. She was enjoying her position on Channel 10 before that. At times she might seem very right-wing, but she is very careful not to attack her boss publicly. Danon obviously has a different way of looking at things.
anyone thinking that Netanyahu firing Danon from the government will “sink” Likud’s numbers in opinion polls? Would lead to more support for Bayit Yehudi?
I don’t think so because Danon said he is staying in Likud.
Will be interesting to see how big the internal Likud fight will be. Is there any way for the central institutions to demand an early vote on leadership?
There needs to be an election for Likud Chairman before the next elections. It is a question of when that will be.