Government Insight Into the Operation and Being Prepared in Jerusalem
http://yishaifleisher.com/radio/radio-government-insight-operation-prepared-jerusalem/
Knesset expert Jeremy Saltan gives a unique government perspective including Israel’s response to Hamas’s ‘multi-front’ attacks towards Israel. They end with Saltan talking about the situation in his specific Jerusalem suburb including rocket attacks that were close.
Dialogue conducted a poll for Haaretz of 520 people, with a 4.3% margin of error on July 9th 2014 under the supervision of pollster Kamil Fox. He also took out a scenario poll in the case that Kachalon starts a party.
Poll 1: Knesset Parties as they are today
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
25 [20] Likud
16 [12] Bayit Yehudi
15 [15] Labor
14 [11] Yisrael Beitenu
13 [19] Yesh Atid
10 [06] Meretz
07 [11] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
04 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
00 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
69 [61] Right-Religious
51 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Right-religious block of 69 seats is remarkable showing for Prime Minister Netanyahu & his right wing allies Foreign Minister Liberman and Economy Minister Bennett. The three right-wing parties gain 12 seats.
Poll #2: Scenario with Kachalon Party
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
21 [20] Likud
16 [12] Bayit Yehudi
15 [–] Kachalon Party
13 [15] Labor
12 [11] Yisrael Beitenu
11 [19] Yesh Atid
09 [06] Meretz
07 [11] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
04 [04] Hadash
00 [06] Movement
00 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
78 [61] Right-Religious-Kachalon
42 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: In this scenario poll the Right-religious-Kachalon block grows from 69 seats to 78 seats. Kachalon becomes the third largest party taking for Likud & Yisrael Beitenu, but more importantly taking seats from Labor, Yesh Atid, Meretz & throwing Livni’s party under the new 3.25% threshold. This is an obvious nightmare scenario for the center-left bloc.
Additional Questions:
What motivated Foreign Minister Liberman to split away from the Likud?
45% Personal political motives, 35% Principled motives, 20% Don’t know
Are you pleased or not pleased with the following public figures?
Defense Minister Yaalon: 57% Pleased, 26% Not pleased
Prime Minister Netanyahu: 40% Pleased, 50% Not pleased
Foreign Minister Liberman: 31% Pleased, 56% Not pleased
Finance Minister Lapid: 26% Pleased, 61% Not pleased
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Based on Haaretz’s last poll, Yaalon gained 3% in favorability and improved on his unfavorable numbers by 7%. Liberman’s favorability dropped 10% & his unfavorable numbers increased by 6%. Lapid & Netanyahu stayed pretty steady compared to the last poll. The other coalition factors Bennett & Livni were not polled.
Radio Link from Yesterday’s interview:
http://yishaifleisher.com/radio/radio-beiteinu-preparing-response/
Yishai is joined by Knesset insider Jeremy Saltan to talk about the situation in the government including the dissolving of the Likud-Beiteinu coalition. They move on to talk about government preparations to a response to attacks from Hamas in Gaza including rocket attacks affecting a large part of the country.
Panels conducted a poll on July 7th, following the announcement of the Likud Beitenu split. It was published the next day on July 8th 2014.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
21 [20] Likud
19 [15] Labor
18 [12] Bayit Yehudi
11 [19] Yesh Atid
11 [11] Yisrael Beitenu
11 [06] Meretz
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [11] Shas
05 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
04 [03] Balad
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
00 [02] Kadima
63 [61] Right-Religious
57 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Likud-Yisrael Beitenu split gives the right-religious block a three seat advantage compared to the previous poll conducted before the split. However Likud is the clear loser from this split. Likud only has a two-seat edge over Labor & a three-seat edge over Bayit Yehudi. Labor or Bayit Yehudi could be the largest party in Knesset if you factor in the margin of error. I’m happy that every poll from now on will be divided up between Likud & Yisrael Beitenu because that has been obvious for a long time. Shas keeps falling and is now under UTJ. Livni’s party has an impressive showing of 5 seats after being under threshold in all recent polls.
Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel July 3rd 2014.
The poll was conducted from afternoon of July 2nd until the morning of July 3rd.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
28 [31] Likud Beitenu
21 [15] Labor
18 [12] Bayit Yehudi
13 [19] Yesh Atid
12 [06] Meretz
07 [11] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
03 [06] Movement
00 [02] Kadima
60 [61] Right-Religious
60 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Bennett up, Netanyahu down. Prime Minister always goes down when he decides not to take action.
Additional Questions:
How should Israel react to Hamas in Gaza in response to murder of boys and escalation in the south?
62% Attack targets from the air
23% Ground attack in the strip
6% Restraint
Do you approve or not approve of the conduct of each one of the responsible factors during the events of the kidnapping?
Prime Minister Netanyahu: Approve 44%, Do not approve 51%
IDF (army): Approve 76%, Do not approve 19%
Shabak (shin bet): Approve 70%, Do not approve 21%
Police: Approve 13%, Do not approve 84%
Should an Investigative Committee be formed to investigate the conduct of the police surrounding the event of the boys abduction?
81% Yes, 14% No.
Should the Police Commishiner resign due to the conduct the police during the event of the boys abduction?
39% Yes, 45% No.
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