Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Two polls were broadcast/published this weekend following Saar’s intent to resign before the Knesset winter session opens on Oct 27 2014.

Panels poll was broadcast by Channel 2 television:

Of the following list of people who do you prefer to see as Prime Minister?

23% Prime Minister Netanyahu (Likud), 13% Economy Minister Bennett (Bayit Yehudi), 9% Foreign Minister Liberman (Yisrael Beitenu), 9% Opposition Leader Herzog (Labor), 8% Justice Minister Livni (Movement), 6% Former Opposition Leader Yachamovich (Labor), 3% Inteior Minister Saar (Likud), 3% Finance Minister Lapid (Yesh Atid), 2% Defense Minister Yaalon (Likud), 1% Communications Minister Erdan (Likud), 0% Transporation Minister Yisrael Katz (Likud), 0% Education Minister Piron (Yesh Atid).

Dialog poll was published by Haaretz newspaper (498 people, 4.4% margin of error):

Who do you think is most fit to be Prime Minister?

38% Prime Minister Netanyahu (Likud), 7% Opposition Leader Herzog (Labor),  6% Foreign Minister Liberman (Yisrael Beitenu), 5% Economy Minister Bennett (Bayit Yehudi), 5% Former Minister Kachlon, 5% Inteior Minister Saar (Likud), 5% Justice Minister Livni (Movement), 4% Finance Minister Lapid (Yesh Atid).

Additional Questions:

Following Interior Minister Gidon Saar’s announcement that he intends on resigning, does the chance that you will vote Likud: increase, decrease or not change?

80% Not change, 15% Decrease chance I will vote Likud, 3% Don’t know, 2% Increase chance I vote Likud

Are you considering voting for Kachlon’s party?

65% No, 19% Don’t Know, 16% Yes

If Gidon Saar joins a party with Kachlon will you consider voting for the joint party?

58% No, 19% Don’t Know, 23% Yes
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: I have been requested to reveal more of an “insider’s look” into the polls. The difference in the PM question of “prefer” vs “fit” is a great way of how you can ask the same question while receiving different results, in politics we call that manipulating a question. Gidon Saar is resigning, just as Kachlon did, as the most popular Likud minister in the government. According to the Haaretz poll, a joint Saar-Kachlon ticket would increase Kahlon’s chances by 7% in terms of voters who would consider voting that party. Consider voting for vs voting for is another great poll question example of how you can influence a result.

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on Sept 18 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [19] Likud

20 [12] Bayit Yehudi

16 [15] Labor

12 [19] Yesh Atid

09 [06] Meretz

08 [12] Yisrael Beitenu

08 [11] Shas

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

69 [61] Right-Religious

51 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Interesting poll. Likud is at a 4-month low with 25 seats. Bayit Yehudi captures 20 seats in this poll. I believe this is the first public poll in which Bayit Yehudi has received 20 seats since it was founded in 2008. The poll was conducted yesterday and last night, so there is an impact in terms of Gidon Saar’s announcement of intent to resign before the Knesset opens Oct 27. A poll earlier this week polled Yesh Atid at 8 seats, here they poll higher (12).

Additional Questions:

Who is most fit to be Prime Minister?

24% Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, 16% Economy Minister Naftali Bennett, 10% Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman, 10% Opposition Leader Yitzhak Herzog, 8% Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, 4% Finance Minister Yair Lapid, 2% Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll that was broadcast by Channel 10 on Sept 15 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
26 [19] Likud
16 [12] Bayit Yehudi
14 [12] Yisrael Beitenu
13 [15] Labor
10 [11] Shas
08 [19] Yesh Atid
07 [–] New Kachalon Party
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [06] Meretz
05 [06] Movement
10 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad
00 [02] Kadima

79 [61] Right-Religious
41 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The three right wing parties in the top three spots with 79 seats for the bloc. We are seeing some polling companies that are showing these type of results (Geocartography being another one), while others such as Panels and Smith are showing the right-religious bloc closer to 70 (instead of 80).

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on Sept 11 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [19] Likud

18 [12] Bayit Yehudi

15 [15] Labor

11 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [06] Meretz

09 [12] Yisrael Beitenu

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [11] Shas

04 [06] Movement

03 [04] Hadash

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

71 [61] Right-Religious

49 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.

Reminder: MK Shama (Likud) resignation has lowered Likud from 20 seats to 19 seats. MK Miller (Yisrael Beitenu) who took the seat raises his party from 11 seats to 12 seats.

Additional Questions:

Do you feel that ISIS is a threat?

39% A threat, 31% Serious threat, 26% Not a threat

Do you trust President Obama to lead the fight against ISIS?

70% No, 26% Yes

Do you think President Obama is a strong leader in regards to managing the US foreign affairs?

41% Weak, 36% Very weak, 21% Strong

Do you think the US should cooperate with Iran to resolve the ISIS threat?

44% No, 36% Yes

Will the new Bayit Yehudi Party Constitution strengthen or weaken the party?

48% Don’t know, 29% Weaken, 23% Strengthen

Among Bayit Yehudi voters – 55% Strengthen, 29% Don’t know, 16% Weaken

Should Bayit Yehudi open itself up to new audiences that are not religious Zionist Jews?

60% Yes, 21% No

Among Bayit Yehudi voters – 73% Yes, 18% No

Should Defense Budget be increased?

50% Yes, 40% No

What subject bothers you the most in the Israeli education system?

43% Violence at schools, 17% Quality of teachers, 12% Classroom density