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Maagar Mochot/Channel 1 Poll: Likud 25, Bayit Yehudi 15, Yisrael Beitenu 15, Labor 14, Yesh Atid 10; Right-Religious Bloc 75

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 3 Comments
November 15, 2014

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 512 people that was broadcast by the Channel 1 on November 15 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [18] Likud

15 [12] Bayit Yehudi

15 [13] Yisrael Beitenu

14 [15] Labor

10 [19] Yesh Atid

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [06] Meretz

06 [–] New Kachlon Party

04 [04] Hadash

03 [06] Movement

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

01 [02] Kadima

 

75 [61] Right-Religious

45 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Additional Questions:

Who is most fit to be Israel’s Prime Minister?

29% Prime Minister Netanyahu, 11% Foreign Minister Liberman, 9% Opposition Leader Herzog, 9% Justice Minister Livni, 7% Former Likud Minister Kachlon, 5% Economy Minister Bennett, 4% Finance Minister Lapid, 19% None of the above

Are you for or against early elections for Knesset?

45% Against, 38% For, 17% Don’t know

  • Majority of the Haredi & Arabs voters voted for new elections.
  • Only 14% of Shas voters support Herzog for Prime Minister.
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The Importance of the Right-Religious Bloc

Filed under: Knesset, Other — 5 Comments
November 14, 2014

Prime Minister Yair Lapid?

Yesh Atid 19 + Labor 15 + Yisrael Beitenu 13 + Livni Party 6 + Meretz 6 + Kadima 2 = 61 of 120 MKs (a majority).

That is the coalition on the table that is supposedly being used as a threat to get in line.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/187443#.VGX4tfmUfLk

On October 28th Channel 10 journalist Raviv Drucker suggested the above coalition in a blog post.

http://drucker10.net/?p=2422

Lapid’s supposed threat is allowing Livni to speak more freely.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/187450#.VGX6jPmUfLk

Herzog wants everyone to know that everyone from Meretz to Yisrael Beitenu is ok with him.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/Flash.aspx/309007#.VGX_RvmUfLk

For now, it seems far fetched that a coalition with Zahava Gal-On and Avigdor Liberman could work.

However, this scenario has gained traction since it was first mentioned over 2 weeks ago.

This “Lapid as Prime Minister” scenario is a great example of proving the “traditional bloc polling” is as relevant now as it was when it went mainstream in 2006.

What is the point of polling blocs of coalition vs opposition if the senior coalition partner (also the largest party in the Knesset) is threatening to topple the Prime Minister and form a new government with the current set up or seats?

The President nominates a candidate for Prime Minister based on his or her ability to get to a minimum of 61 seats. The President meets with the leaders of each party and asks them who they will nominate for PM.

It is clear that the leaders of the parties in the “center-left-Arab” bloc (Lapid, Herzog, Livni, etc) will not nominate Netanyahu for another term. The leaders of the “right-religious” block might not nominate Netanyahu (Kachlon, Deri, etc), however it remains the most effective way of examining the possibility of a 4th Netanyahu term.

In my opinion Yair Lapid will most likely not be Prime Minister, however the supposed threat highlights the importance of the “bloc polling” which I include at the bottom of every poll.

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Panels/Knesset Channel Poll: Likud 22, Bayit Yehudi 17, Labor 14, Yesh Atid 10, Meretz 9

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 1 Comment
November 13, 2014

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on November 13 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

22 [19] Likud

17 [12] Bayit Yehudi

14 [15] Labor

10 [19] Yesh Atid

09 [06] Meretz

08 [12] Yisrael Beitenu

08 [11] Shas

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [–] New Kachlon Party

05 [04] Hadash

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

04 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

70 [61] Right-Religious

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab

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Majority of coalition MKs in Yisrael Beitenu, Yesh Atid, Livni join Labor & Arabs MKs to vote for Yisrael Hayom Bill as Haredim abstain

Filed under: Uncategorized — 4 Comments
November 12, 2014

Preliminary Reading Voting:

43 MKs voted for: 12 of 13 Yisrael Beitenu MKs, 10 Yesh Atid, 9 Labor, 4 Raam-Taal, 4 Livni, 2 Hadash, 1 Kadima & 1 Meretz

23 MKs voted against: 11 Likud, 7 Bayit Yehudi, 1 UTJ, 1 Kadima, 1 Yesh Atid, 1 Labor, 1 Meretz

9 Abstaining MKs: 3 Shas, 2 UTJ, 2 Labor, 1 Balad, 1 Livni

9 Present but not voting MKs: 5 Shas, 2 UTJ, 2 Labor

36 Not Present MKs (mostly MKs who paired off): 8 Yesh Atid, 7 Likud, 5 Bayit Yehudi, 4 Meretz, 3 Shas, 2 UTJ, 2 Balad, 2 Hadash, 1 Yisrael Beitenu, 1 Labor, 1 Livni

Party Analysis:

Likud: 61% against, 39% not present

Bayit Yehudi: 58% against, 42% not present

Kadima: 50% against, 50% for

Shas: 45% voted not present, 27% abstain, 27% not present

UTJ: 28% abstain, 28% voted not present, 28% not present, 14% against

Meretz: 66% not present, 16% against, 16% for

Labor: 60% for, 13% abstain, 13% voted not present, 6% not present, 6% against

Yesh Atid: 52% for, 42% not present, 5% against

Livni: 66% for, 16% abstain, 16% not present

Yisrael Beitenu: 92% for, 8% not present

Hadash: 50% for, 50% not present

Balad: 66% not present, 33% abstain

Ra’am-Ta’al: 100% for

Item #2:

MK-to-Minister ratio: Likud 2.25:1, Y. Beytenu 2.6:1, Yesh Atid 3.8:1, Bayit Yehudi 4:1;
Will Livni get a second minister position to replace Amir Peretz?

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Knesset Channel/Panels Poll: Likud 22, Bayit Yehudi 18, Labor 15, Yesh Atid 9, Meretz 9, Shas/UTJ/Kachlon 8 each, Yisrael Beitenu 7

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 4 Comments
November 6, 2014

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on November 6 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

22 [19] Likud

18 [12] Bayit Yehudi

15 [15] Labor

09 [19] Yesh Atid

09 [06] Meretz

08 [11] Shas

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

08 [–] New Kachlon Party

07 [12] Yisrael Beitenu

05 [04] Hadash

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

 

71 [61] Right-Religious

49 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Additional Questions:

Who is most fit to be Israel’s Prime Minister?

28% Prime Minister Netanyahu, 12% Economy Minister Bennett, 11% Opposition Leader Herzog, 9% Justice Minister Livni, 8% Foreign Minister Liberman, 6% Former Likud Minister Kachlon, 2% Finance Minister Lapid, 19% None of the above

What issues should the Likud focus on?

49% Economic & Social issues, 32% Security & Defense issues, 14% Diplomatic (peace process) issues

Should the center-left parties of Labor, Yesh Atid & Movement (Livni) merge or remain separate parties?

44% Separate, 34% Merge, 22% Don’t know

Will Obama’s loss in the midterms change US policy towards Israel?

32% Yes, will be more hostile, 28% No change, 20% Yes, will be more friendly, 20% Don’t know

What actions should the US Administration take in regards to Israel?
Only asked those who answered “Yes, will be more hostile”:

44% Pressure to restart negotiations, 23% Remove US veto in UN institutions, 21% Cut or cease aid to Israel

Are you satisfied or not satisfied from the conduct of the Israeli government in regards to dealing with the latest security events in Jerusalem?

81% Not satisfied, 15% Satisfied

What needs to be done to prevent future terror attacks in Jerusalem?

49% Increase punishment, 25% Increase enforcement, 19% Restart peace negotiations

By what measure, if at all, do the latest events harm the sense of security of the residents of the Jewish neighborhoods in Jerusalem?

60% Great harm, 31% Some harm, 5% Do not harm

What is your position on Jewish prayer on the Temple Mount?

33% It must be allowed immediately, 27% It should be allowed but not right now, 28% It should not be allowed

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