Prime Minister Yair Lapid?

Yesh Atid 19 + Labor 15 + Yisrael Beitenu 13 + Livni Party 6 + Meretz 6 + Kadima 2 = 61 of 120 MKs (a majority).

That is the coalition on the table that is supposedly being used as a threat to get in line.

On October 28th Channel 10 journalist Raviv Drucker suggested the above coalition in a blog post.

Lapid’s supposed threat is allowing Livni to speak more freely.

Herzog wants everyone to know that everyone from Meretz to Yisrael Beitenu is ok with him.

For now, it seems far fetched that a coalition with Zahava Gal-On and Avigdor Liberman could work.

However, this scenario has gained traction since it was first mentioned over 2 weeks ago.

This “Lapid as Prime Minister” scenario is a great example of proving the “traditional bloc polling” is as relevant now as it was when it went mainstream in 2006.

What is the point of polling blocs of coalition vs opposition if the senior coalition partner (also the largest party in the Knesset) is threatening to topple the Prime Minister and form a new government with the current set up or seats?

The President nominates a candidate for Prime Minister based on his or her ability to get to a minimum of 61 seats. The President meets with the leaders of each party and asks them who they will nominate for PM.

It is clear that the leaders of the parties in the “center-left-Arab” bloc (Lapid, Herzog, Livni, etc) will not nominate Netanyahu for another term. The leaders of the “right-religious” block might not nominate Netanyahu (Kachlon, Deri, etc), however it remains the most effective way of examining the possibility of a 4th Netanyahu term.

In my opinion Yair Lapid will most likely not be Prime Minister, however the supposed threat highlights the importance of the “bloc polling” which I include at the bottom of every poll.