Panels conducted a poll that was taken out for Maariv/103 FM Radio and released on March 5 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
23 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
22 [18] Likud
13 [20] Yesh Atid
13 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [11] Bayit Yehudi
08 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Meretz
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
65 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
55 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
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A phase 3 issue that may be a phase 2 consideration: If the next government is to stick to the 18 maximum on ministers it becomes an advantage for the subordinate parties to join a coalition with fewer rather than more parties where there are more ministerial positions and committee chairmanships to go around. For a party like Kulanu that can translate into 3 rather than 2 ministers. Bibi’s rightist coalition only works if all parties to the right of Yesh Atid and perhaps even Yesh Atid are included – a limited amount of spoils to go around. Buji has it easier just having to bring in Yesh Atid, Kulanu, Shas and UTJ. (The Haredi parties follow the “show us the money rule” so issues of principle are not a governing factor.)
Although it is popular to believe that Shas and UTJ follow the show us the money rule.
It is not the correct or fair approach to the matter. The issue arises from the genuine belief that Torah studying and education are of primary importance. They also will not bend on certain religious standards which YA were gleefully undermining in the previous government. Your scenario would only gain feasibility if YA were to change course. To date Lapid has shown no signs of remorse or humbleness in that area.
Yes I agree. I think Shas and UTJ would much rather sit in a government with Likud, Bayit Yehudi, and possibly Yisrael Beitenu. None of them are really that big of a threat to the Haredi or the religious people of Israel. Meretz, Labor, and Yesh Atid on the other hand are.
In particular, this includes funding for grade schools and high schools, where Chareidi schools are forced to endure lack of special education and large class sizes, not to mention the threat of bankruptcy.
I don’t think Shas and UTJ will sit in a government with Lapid.
I can say with a bit of certainty that for the left in this election the mantra is “show us the votes”. Lapid never graduated a college and a great Finance Minister he was not but he can count and he can cave. Buji and the defense establishment don’t care very much if Haredim serve or don’t serve…and both would rather given the choice see money go to Bnai Brak than kiryat arba.
Meretz would of course also be part of a narrow Buji government of 64 seats plus Joint list support from the outside.
If this poll is correct, a government that consist of Likud, BY, Kulanu, Shas, UTJ, & BY would put Netanyahus coalition at 61 seats. If he can pull in Yachad to sit with Shas that would be amazing.
Labor, Kulanu, YA, Meretz would come to 50 seats. They would need to bring in the Haredim or the Arabs to form a government.
Bibi could form a strong right-religious majority. But two questions: (1)would this hurt Bibi within Likud, and Lieberman with his constituents, if they both caved into the demands of the Haredim (all Israeli except the Haredim and the Arabs want universal service in the IDF)? (2) Is Bibi insane enough to think Israel can avoid the repercussions of having perhaps the most right-wing, pro-settler government in its history?
1. Nobody would care – just Bibi being Bibi
2. Being crazy is one thing, acting crazy as a negotiating ploy another (see Congressional speech)
I guess the World would have to accept the “most right-wing, pro-settler government” and try to work with it – the EU got some starting experience with handling “difficult” (from its point of view) governments after the last elections in Greece.
Secondly I would suggest that with such a government it would be possible to start changing the conversation about how to solve the peace process – start thinking outside the box and abandoning the 2-state solution (at least for now, from the viewpoint of Obama, EU,..). One good compromise (to start from) is Bennett’s plan, but for that to happen BY must be big (like 17-20 seats) so that Bennett can demand the right to negotiate and some good portfolios like DM or FM.
No, that isn’t correct.
All Israel maybe theoretically wants Chareidim to serve. (The law doesn’t really do this, though.) When it comes to other groups – religious women (Jewish and Druze), Arabs, and Leftist Conscientious Objectors, then they all have various groups that want them exempt. And if not, why was there no legislation affecting them? (Sherut Leumi isn’t exactly the same as military service. You can quit, for one thing, and many secular people do both.)
“If he can pull in Yachad to sit with Shas that would be amazing.”
To be part of a government, even with Bibi as PM, Yachad must first break with the kahanist Baruch Marzel.
A.. The reason what you say is true is because Marzal won’t sit.
B. There is every indication that they will.
The 3.25 threshold is looming as a huge monkey wrench, if YB or Yachad or both fell below the threshold, somewhat unlikely but certainly possible, Buji would have viable coalition options, if Meretz fell below then Bibi could easily form form a narrow right coalition and could force Kulanu and the heredi parties to bargain against themselves for admission. Is there any precedent for Likud or Labour asking some voters to support one of the smaller parties to preserve coalition options? Also would voters be more likely to shift towards an endangered party figuring that it needs their support, or shift away to avoid “wasting” a vote?
It would be interesting to have a situation where YB, Yachad and Meretz all fall under the threshold.
Well if all three did, we would be basically where we are now, but if YB and Yachad did that would be huge for Buji and vice versa if only meretz did for bibi
So now I have to root for Meretz to succeed?
That last point of Avi’s is spot on. It’s not the money but the national service that will determine if Shas, and maybe UTJ, join a center-left coalition. And the money can be moved from one political payoff to another. If YA gets no more than 12 seats, look for them to less unyielding in that regard.