Geocartography conducted a poll that was taken out for I24News and was released on Feb 22 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
27 [18] Likud
23 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
12 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [20] Yesh Atid
11 [11] Bayit Yehudi
09 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
04 [06] Meretz
04 [10] Shas
70 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating a BB coalition)
50 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating a BB coalition)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
This pollster continues to be Likud-friendly.
Yeah I agree and Dialog tends to be Labor-friendly, Smith is Shas-friendly etc etc.
It just proves exactly why Poll of Polls trend tracking system is more accurate than any given poll.
Polls of polls are an improvement. Sophisticated poll watchers in the states complimenent their analysis by looking at sampling techniques, trends, turnout assumptions and adjustments pollsters have made from past election cycles. The better political consultants see the way the wind is blowing but many are afraid to let their clients know the emes. (Romney campaign 2012)
How Accurate was “poll of polls” last time?
Last time Poll of Polls predicted within 1 seat 8 of the 12 parties.
Looks like this will hang on getting out the vote.
Exactly, it’s all about getting people to the polls or sometimes discouraging them. Over the weekend Amir Peretz suggested that while his neighbors in the South may not support Buji many of them will just stay home on 3/17.
Indeed, in the States thats a concept lost on many. Its all about turnout. They keep going after the nebulous swing voters, when in fact its the swing voters of your base: they swing between voting and staying home. Dems were energized in 08 and 12, Reps were energized in 10 and 14. To claim the country or independents changed in any substantial fashion is ridiculous. The truth becomes more clear when you look at turnout levels and vote by race, marriage status, and other demographics.
JL: Good point. Although in Israel turnout is much, much higher than in the US. Getting a day off helps. It’s also much harder to commit fraud here.
It’s important to note turnout is not monolithic; it’s whose turnout, also. That’s why UTJ went up, although I wonder if they can keep it up.
A nice idea, that in the US the House turns over every two years. This acted as a release valve after Obama proposed socialized medicine. Really not very different from what happened here after Oslo, and we know how that turned out. No idea how that could work in a parliamentary system (plebiscite?), but an extra election is much better than an assassination.
If Likud wins, has Herzog talked about joining a coalition or would Labor be in the opposition again?
I think Hertog will dump Tznipi and join! I am not sure Netanyahu would would allow Tznipi to clean the stables; same goes for Lipids.
He promised he would never join with Bibi. But after the election things may look different.
Wow. Outlier much?
Side question – if Meretz finally does drop below the threshold, isn’t that good for Herzog? Because if Labor nets, say, 2-3 seats from Meretz voters jumping ship (likely already in progress) might that put Herzog ahead of Bibi? Even by one seat? Which would (presumably) lead Rivlin to give Herzog first crack at Kahlon?
In other words, isn’t Labor better off with Meretz at 2% than with Meretz at 3.26%?
No, it does not work that way. Rivlin will poll all the parties that cross the threshold and ask who they recommend to form the government; The party with the most recommendations general-lee gets the first crack at forming a government. Last Election Likud had the second most seats, but got recomended.
Slowly but surely, Bayit Yehudi drops to 5th place and Yesh Atid is closing in on the 3rd spot