Teleseker (TNS) conducted a poll of 500 people that was published by Walla on Jan 21 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
25 [21] Labor-Livni
24 [18] Likud
16 [11] Bayit Yehudi
11 [11] Raam-Taal 5, Harash 3, Balad 3)) United Arab List
09 [19] Yesh Atid
08 [10] Shas
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
08 [00] Koolanu
06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
00 [02] Ha’am Itanu
00 [02] Kadima
70 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
50 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)
Teleseker (TNS) conducted a scenario poll with a joint Likud-Bayit Yehudi listhat was published by Walla on Jan 21 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
37 [29] Likud + Bayit Yehudi
25 [21] Labor-Livni
09 [19] Yesh Atid
11 [11] *United Arab List
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [06] Meretz
08 [00] Koolanu
08 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
09 [10] Shas
00 [02] Kadima
70 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
50 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Unless BY and Likud are secretly planning on uniting, which there doesn’t seem to be any proof to suggest it’s the case, then I don’t know what the purpose is of some of these scenario polls other than to fill newspaper space.
If the Arab parties fail to unite and 2 or possibly all 3 fail to meet the threshold, I wonder how this would impact the results for other parties. Presumably all parties exceeding the threshold would receive increased representation proportionally, so for example Labor might go from 25 seats to 27. This might make it easier for Labor to get to 61 seats to form a coalition.
If they fail to unite, Raam-Taal and Hadash on their own will likely pass, but Balad won’t, and good riddance.
Labor won’t go from 25 to 27, all parties get a slight boost with the Left overall losing (counting Balad as Left), so it will make it harder for Labor to form a minority government.
Thank you. Can you or someone else please elaborate on the requirements for Labor to form a “minority” government. Let us assume for argument’s sake that the election results are identical to those in this Teleseker/Walla poll. Let us further assume that after the election, Yesh Atid, Koolanu, Shas, Meretz, and a united Arab list all recommend to Rivlin that Labor (rather than Likud) be given the first opportunity to form a coalition. This would total 66 seats. However let us further assume that during coalition negotiations, while Yesh Atid and Shas become grudgingly willing to sit with one another, Labor cannot include the Arab parties or Meretz in their coalition while keeping the other parties. So 16 seats are lost which brings the coalition to 50. Under this scenario, is Labor allowed to form a “minority” government with only 50 MKs so long as the Arab parties and Meretz indicate a willingness to “support” the government from the outside? Are the laws clear on such a situation? Does Rivlin have personal discretion as to whether or not to accept the formation of such a government? Thank you all for any thoughts. I have not read any analysis anywhere that speaks to this possible scenario.
Whenever parties do not pass the threshold it helps the larger parties slightly.
You need 61 MKs to approve a government, but you can have a security net in the case that someone leaves the coalition that prevents the 61 MKs needed to bring down the government.
When you say “approve a government”, do you mean that 61 MKs must actually agree to reside within the coalition? Or could a scenario like the one I described occur, where only 50 MKs are actually within the coalition but an additional 16 MKs “approve” of the government from outside the coalition?
You need 61 MKs to vote for the new government to form.
You can have a situation like you did with Rabin, where he was able to stay on as PM even after his coalition went into the 50s as long as 61 MKs don’t vote in favor of a no-confidence motion. Of course in a situation like this it is difficult to pass anything in Knesset.
Bottom line to form a government you need 61, you don’t need 61 to maintain one.
So to answer Avi’s question – the parties don’t actually have to reside in the coalition, they just have to vote for it. Am I correct?
Still unclear to me from Jeremy’s response.
BTW there are two different Avis posting on this blog (I am just one) 🙂
Labor will never be able to form a coalition, Labor needs Lieberman, Kulanu, Lapid and at least Shas or Meretz, Meretz wont stay with Lieberman, and Shas wont stay with Lapid, so Bibi is the next PM, he will be able to form a coalition easily with the Jewish Home, Lieberman, Utj, Shas and Kulanu or he can get rid of Shas or Kulanu if the national camp is more than 60 seats
Fad – unless Meretz votes for Herzog for PM without formally joining the coalition. I agree its unlikely.
If Yisrael Beitenu’s support continues to drop Herzog would only need Kulanu though. Still unlikely, but a more straightforward scenario.
CupofCanada, Meretz is not the pocket of the Labor easily, remember it refused to Join Olmert leftist government which was composed of Kadima, Labor, Shas and Pensioners, they are far left and secular party, they have their agenda, on the other hand, all the polls till now showed Kulanu and Lapid 7-11, so even if both of them get 22 seats plus 25 of Labor, which means 47, plus say 6 of Lieberman, means 53, they still need either the Haredim at least Shas, or Meretz or both of them, and both of them wont stay with Lapid and Lieberman respectively, the recommendation to the president may be little complicated, Shas and Lapid will recommend Herzog, while the Jewish Home only will recommend Netanyahu. so Herzog will have 42 seats while Netanyahu will have 40, he must try to get Utj or Kulanu support to avoid giving Herzog the first nod !!!
So the biggest difference under a BY-Likud joint list is an uptick in Yisrael Beitenu support.
If Yisrael Beitenu’s support drops a bit more, do you think it would be in the interests of Likud to try to keep them above the threshold like that, or would Likud be better of without Yisrael Beitenu in the Knesset?
That’s the only possible motive I can think of for a joint list, and it sounds pretty far fetched.
As the other Avi, I’m happy to go by Avi 2. But as for my namesake’s question there is the precedent of UTJ which will not sit in a Zionist government but give support in exchange for a major chairmanship like Finance. There are effective MK’s in the two Arab parties and Hadash that can take on a social chairmanship in exchange for their party’s support.
Thank you Avi 2. Only on an Israeli blog could there be an excess of Avis.
If Labor beats Likud by 2-3 seats in the election, I think it’s a real possibility that they could be given the first opportunity to form a coalition. The possibility of a minority government supported by the Arab parties and possibly Meretz from outside of the coalition is an interesting one.
How is that even remotely feasible – the centre right religious block must have 70 seats between them, why would you expect any of them to break and support a minority left wing block.
I have said it before and I will say it again, the only way labour will be in the next government is if Netenyahu decides to invite them to join him instead of Bayit Yehudi.
Unlikely but it could be feasible. The 70 mk “right-religious” bloc with current numbers includes koolanu and shas. No guarantee they will nominate BB for PM, particularly if Labor is #1 by a few seats. Indeed Deri was quoted in October as saying he prefers herzog to BB.
So Fad says
“he will be able to form a coalition easily with the Jewish Home, Lieberman, Utj, Shas and Kulanu or he can get rid of Shas or Kulanu if the national camp is more than 60 seats”
He could get rid of Shas or Kukanu, hmmm, Shas Mizrahi, Kahlon Mizrahi, so it would be a snowflake government again, never mind that the mizrahim make up the majority.
thoughtless thinking!
Yossi, i am saying Kulanu or Shas or both of them, i didnt say neither of them, Bibi will try to form a narrow government this time, because the limited number of ministers, he wont be able to bring both of them, unless he hasnt a majority, if the national camp without Kulanu got 61 or more, so no need to bring Kulanu, but if the national camp fails to get the majority, so Kulanu will be invited