Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on Sept 4 2014.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
29 [19] Likud
18 [12] Bayit Yehudi
15 [15] Labor
10 [19] Yesh Atid
09 [12] Yisrael Beitenu
09 [06] Meretz
08 [11] Shas
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
72 [61] Right-Religious
48 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.
* Reminder: MK Shama (Likud) resignation has lowered Likud from 20 seats to 19 seats. MK Miller (Yisrael Beitenu) who took the seat raises his party from 11 seats to 12 seats.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
great poll numbers and same thoughts as for the last couple of polls. no need to say them again… and also about the threshold…
Jeremy,
will BY split, do you predict so? At least one could do that according to the news items of today (JPost, Arutz sheva).
Or is this threat from Uri Ariel a hoax, do you think?
Usual Uri Ariel stuff to try and get him #2 spot without having to go into primaries
so “really” no split in the next two weeks at least? Great!
Jeremy, could you please comment on the following:
In the article (http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/184979#.VBE5VPl_tqI) it is said that
“Political officials predicted on Wednesday evening that if Ariel will not be able to find common ground with the Jewish Home party following the passing of the new constitution, he may split the party along with MKs Rabbi Eli Ben-Dahan, Orit Struk, Zevulun Kalfa, Yoni Chetboun and Motti Yogev.
According to the sources, hareidi MKs from Shas could possibly join the party down the road.”
First of all, I wonder if this break-up scenario is a “real” possibility and second, let’s for arguments sake say that the above mentioned break-up happened, does the SOURCE mean that Shas MKs would join Bennett’s faction or Ariel’s faction? It does not become totally clear.
Would really appreciate comments, thanks!
I saw that article.
It is not accurate.
That is a rumor mill & spin combo coming from Ariel camp.
Again, I view it as internal posturing.
Uri Ariel should be #2 on list after negotiating one of the reserved slots that Bennett received in the new party constitution, meaning Ariel could skip the primaries.
so with the new constitution and after a merger, will Ariel have a reserved slot and the other (ex-)Tekuma members will have to compete in the primaries?
The way I see it going.
Ariel gets a slot.
Rest of Tekuma run in primaries.
another thing I do not get: what is the problem for Motti Yogev and Yoni Chetboun with the new arrangements?
as i can see thing, there will still be primaries where the more religious candidates for sure will still succeed better than newer secular members; so i do not see how the religious carachter would decrease by this new system.
and also, as i understood, Bennett (or whoever is chairman) can only choose every fifth candidate, i.e. nr. 5, 10, 15, 20,…
so lets say, as polls suggest that BY would win approximately 18 seats + some extra because of the candidates the chairman has selected (lets say 2 seats more). Then the “outside”-candidates will only represent 4 out of 20 people (one fifth) – so based on the chairman’s selections there would logically not be so big a “nature”-change in the party. unless of course the opponents are afraid that in the primaries there will be so many new (“outside”)-members winning good positions on the list in the primaries – and in that way change the carachter, but that again would be the party-membership’s wish!
conclusion: hard to understand what guys like Yogev and Chetboun still are worried about.
Yogev and Chetboun do not have a good ground game, as we saw last night (95% voting with Bennett). Bennett might not support them in next primary like he did last time. It is possible they do not finish in top 20.
another thing: are tekuma members afraid of primaries as they do not have experience of the system??
yes
I just hope that there will not be a split, destroying the success of BY in the polls. It would be a shame to destroy the newly created chance for religious-zionists to really “rule” by a despute over the party constitution.
Then again maybe officials in BY could to some extent compromise with Tekuma to keep the unity if this question is really that important for Tekuma etc.