Panels Poll broadcasted on Knesset Channel April 4 2013.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
28 [19] Yesh Atid
25 [31] Likud Beitenu
15 [15] Labor
14 [12] Bayit Yehudi
08 [11] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [06] Mertez
04 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
02 [02] Kadima
54 [61] Right-Religious
66 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Maagar Mochot poll broadcast on Channel 10 on March 17 2013
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
30 [31] Likud Beitenu
25 [19] Yesh Atid
12 [12] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] Shas
11 [15] Labor
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [06] Movement
01 [02] Kadima
17 [17] Mertez, Ra’am-Ta’al, Hadash and Balad
61 [61] Right-Religious
59 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Panels Poll for Knesset Channel conducted March 14th 2013.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
31 [19] Yesh Atid
24 [31] Likud Beitenu
18 [12] Bayit Yehudi
14 [15] Labor
08 [11] Shas
07 [06] Meretz
05 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
03 [06] Movement
02 [02] Kadima
08 [11] Ra’am-Ta’al, Hadash and Balad
55 [61] Right-Religious
65 [59] Center-Left-Arab
My Guess Poll
33 Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
16 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
15 Labor
10 Shas
09 Yesh Atid
07 Movement
06 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 Hadash
05 Ra’am-Ta’al
04 Kadima
04 Meretz
03 Balad
03 Strong Israel
Am Shalem and others don’t pass threshold
68 Right-Religious
52 Center-Left-Arab
* I predict a 22 seat shift from avg of polls but I don’t predict any shift that is larger than 3 seats.
* I don’t have time to explain my picks but I should be allowed to explain how I got to my picks after the deadline. As I had mentioned before, Israeli law forbids predicting results or publishing polls after today.
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Final Seats accourding to avg of polls, voting swaps and lost votes:
35 Likud Beitenu
18 Labor
15 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
12 Yesh Atid
11 Shas
07 Movement
06 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 Meretz
04 Hadash
03 Ra’am-Ta’al
03 Balad
67 Right-Religious
53 Center-Left-Arab
Kadima, Strong Israel, Am Shalem and others don’t pass 2.4% threshold.
Knesset Jeremy – The Israeli Poll of Polls
Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #15 (week of Jan 12-18 2013) of 16 polls (3 Panels, 2 Maagar Mochot, 2 Smith, 2 Midgam, 2 Dahaf, 2 Dialog, Teleseker, New Wave, Geocartography)
Current Knesset seats in [brackets], Week 14 average in (brackets):
33.7 (34.0) [42] Likud Beitenu
16.5 (17.3) [08] Labor
14.0 (14.2) [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
10.9 (10.3) [—] Yesh Atid
10.6 (10.3) [10] Shas
7.2 (7.8) [07] Movement
5.8 (6.0) [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
5.7 (4.8) [03] Meretz
3.9 (3.7) [04] Hadash
3.5 (3.6) [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
3.4 (3.3) [03] Balad
2.3 (1.4) [21] Kadima
1.9 (1.2) [02] Strong Israel
0.6 (1.0) [01] Am Shalem
— (0.0) [05] Independence (No longer running)
66.3 (67.07) [65] Right-Religious
53.6 (52.92) [55] Center-Left-Arab
Changes from week 14 to week 15:
Yesh Atid passes Shas for 4th place.
Largest Gains: Kadima and Meretz gained 0.9 of a seat each, Meretz and Strong Israel gained 0.7.
Biggest Losses: Labor lost 0.8 of a seat and Movement lost 0.6 of a seat.
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Final Seats accourding to avg of polls, voting swaps and lost votes:
35 Likud Beitenu
18 Labor
15 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
12 Yesh Atid
11 Shas
7 Movement
6 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
6 Meretz
4 Hadash
3 Ra’am-Ta’al
3 Balad
67 Right-Religious
53 Center-Left-Arab
Kadima, Strong Israel, Am Shalem and others don’t pass 2.0% threshold of 2.4 seats.
* Next post will include my “Guess Poll”.
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