The first poll conducted after Shas spiritual leader Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef replaced Eli Yishai with Aryeh Deri as leader of Shas.
Smith conducted a poll published by Globes on May 3 2013.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
30 [31] Likud Beitenu
30 [19] Yesh Atid
13 [12] Bayit Yehudi
12 [15] Labor
10 [11] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [06] Mertez
00 [06] Movement
00 [02] Kadima
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
60 [61] Right-Religious
60 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Panels Poll broadcasted on Knesset Channel April 4 2013.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
28 [19] Yesh Atid
25 [31] Likud Beitenu
15 [15] Labor
14 [12] Bayit Yehudi
08 [11] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [06] Mertez
04 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
02 [02] Kadima
54 [61] Right-Religious
66 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Maagar Mochot poll broadcast on Channel 10 on March 17 2013
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
30 [31] Likud Beitenu
25 [19] Yesh Atid
12 [12] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] Shas
11 [15] Labor
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [06] Movement
01 [02] Kadima
17 [17] Mertez, Ra’am-Ta’al, Hadash and Balad
61 [61] Right-Religious
59 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Panels Poll for Knesset Channel conducted March 14th 2013.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
31 [19] Yesh Atid
24 [31] Likud Beitenu
18 [12] Bayit Yehudi
14 [15] Labor
08 [11] Shas
07 [06] Meretz
05 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
03 [06] Movement
02 [02] Kadima
08 [11] Ra’am-Ta’al, Hadash and Balad
55 [61] Right-Religious
65 [59] Center-Left-Arab
My Guess Poll
33 Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
16 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
15 Labor
10 Shas
09 Yesh Atid
07 Movement
06 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 Hadash
05 Ra’am-Ta’al
04 Kadima
04 Meretz
03 Balad
03 Strong Israel
Am Shalem and others don’t pass threshold
68 Right-Religious
52 Center-Left-Arab
* I predict a 22 seat shift from avg of polls but I don’t predict any shift that is larger than 3 seats.
* I don’t have time to explain my picks but I should be allowed to explain how I got to my picks after the deadline. As I had mentioned before, Israeli law forbids predicting results or publishing polls after today.
___________________________________________________________
Final Seats accourding to avg of polls, voting swaps and lost votes:
35 Likud Beitenu
18 Labor
15 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
12 Yesh Atid
11 Shas
07 Movement
06 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 Meretz
04 Hadash
03 Ra’am-Ta’al
03 Balad
67 Right-Religious
53 Center-Left-Arab
Kadima, Strong Israel, Am Shalem and others don’t pass 2.4% threshold.
