Tag Archive: politics


Knesset Jeremy 2009 Election Poll Analysis: Part 2

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January 17, 2013

Results of the 6 smaller parties of the 12 that were elected, along with adjusted error rates.

Range of polling company errors was from 14 ro 25.5 seats of Knesset’s 120 seats.

Part 1: https://knessetjeremy.com/2013/01/16/knesset-jeremy-2009-election-poll-analysis/

 

Polling   Company/Party Raam-Taal Hadash N. Union J. Home Balad Meretz Error Rate
Actual   Results 4 4 4 3 3 3 0
Correct   Guesses 2 of 10 6 of 10 5 of 10 5 of 10 2 of 10 0 of 10 10 of 10
Panels 3 4 4 3 2 6 14
Maagar   Mochot 3 3 2 3 3 5 15
Smith 3.5 4 3.5 3.5 3 5 15.5
Dialog   1 3 3 4 2 2 7 18
Dialog   2 3 3 4 2 2 6 18
Midgam   (Meno Gava) 4 4 3 3 2 5 18
Teleseker 4 4 3 3 2 6 20
Shvakim   Panorama 3 4 4 4 2 5 20
Dahaf 3 4 4 3 2 5 20
Gal   Hadash/New Wave 3 5 3 2 0 6 24
Geocartography 3 5 6 2 0 5 25.5
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Knesset Jeremy 2009 Election Poll Analysis

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 2 Comments
January 16, 2013

Knesset Jeremy 2009 Election Poll Analysis

12 lists were elected in 2009.

10 polling companies conducted 11 polls (one company took out two) in the last 2 days that polling was allowed ahead of the Israeli election.

Below is a table of the top 6 parties.

Polling   Company/Party Kadima Likud YB Labor Shas UTJ Error Rate
Actual Results 28 27 15 13 11 5 0
Correct Guesses 0 of 10 2 of 10 0 of 10 1 of 10 1 of 10 6 of 10 10 of 10
Panels 25 26 18 14 10 5 9
Maagar Mochot 24 27 18 13 10 6 9
Dialog 1 25 27 18 14 9 6 10
Dialog 2 25 27 19 14 9 6 11
Smith 23 26 17.5 15.5 10 5 12
Gal Hadash 24 30 17 16 9 5 14
Midgam (Meno Gava) 23 28 19 16 10 5 14
Teleseker 23 26 19 17 10 5 15
Shvakim Panorama 21 25 16 16 11 7 15
Geocartography 22.5 26 20.5 15.5 10 5 15.5
Dahaf 23 25 19 16 10 6 16

Error Rate: How many seats they were off in total

Findings: Panels and Maagar Mochot tied with lowest error rate of 9 seats among the 6 largest parties vs Mina Tzemach’s Dahaf which had the highest error rate of 16 seats.

Polling of the 6 smaller parties proved more difficult. Ra’am-Ta’al, Hadash, National Union, Jewish Home, Meretz and Balad all received either 3 or 4 seats and gathered between 114,000 to 83,000 votes overall. Maagar Mochot was one of the polling companies that got things very wrong when it came to the smaller parties.

Overall, my conclusion stands that Menachem Lazar’s Panels is the most trusted polling company and Mina Tzemeach’s Dahaf is the most overrated.

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Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #7: Likud Beitenu 38, Labor 21.4, Shas 11.8, Yesh Atid 11.1, NU-JH 9.5

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November 25, 2012

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #7 (week of Nov 18-24) of 7 polls (3 Channel 2 polls, Ma’ariv, Ha’aretz, Knesset Channel and ICPT):

Current Knesset seats in [brackets], Week 5 average in (brackets)

38.0 (37.0) [42] Likud Beitenu
21.4 (21.5) [08] Labor
11.8 (11.0) [10] Shas
11.1 (13.0) [–] Yesh Atid
9.5 (11.0) [05] National Union-Jewish Home
5.7 (5.0) [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
4.0 (4.5) [03] Meretz
3.8 (3.5) [04] Hadash
3.5 (3.0) [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
3.2 (3.5) [03] Balad
2.7 (2.5) [01] Am Shalem
1.8 (2.5) [05] Independence
1.4 (0.0) [02] Strong Israel
1.0 (2.0) [28] Kadima

69.5 (66.5) [65] Right
50.8 (53.5) [55] Center-Left

Note: I didn’t include Livni Party scenario polls because she has not announced yet the formation of her party. Deadline for all parties to submit their lists is December 6th.

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Channel 2 Poll: Likud Beitenu 34, Labor 19, Shas 11, JH-NU 10, Yesh Atid 10, Livni Party 10

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Dahaf poll of 500 people with an error of +/- 4.4% was conducted for Channel 2 and broadcast on November 23 2012. First poll was asked on November 22 and the second poll without Livni party on November 20.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

34 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
19 [08] Labor
11 [10] Shas
10 [05] Jewish Home and National Union
10 [—] Yesh Atid
10 [—] New Livni Party
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [05] Independence
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
04 [03] Meretz
03 [03] Balad
02 [02] Strong Israel
00 [01] Am Shalem
00 [28] Kadima

62 [65] Right
58 [55] Center-Left

Without Livni Party:

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

40 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
21 [08] Labor
14 [—] Yesh Atid
11 [10] Shas
09 [05] Jewish Home and National Union
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
04 [03] Meretz
03 [03] Balad
02 [02] Strong Israel
02 [01] Am Shalem
00 [28] Kadima
00 [05] Independence

68 [65] Right
52 [55] Center-Left

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Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #4: Likud Beitenu 38, Labor 22.1, Yesh Atid 14.7, Shas 11.7, NU+JH 9.1

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November 4, 2012

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #4 (week of Oct 29-Nov 4) of 7 polls (Teleseker, two Panels, Dahaf, Geocartography, Smith, Dahaf):

Current Knesset seats in [brackets], Week 3 average in (brackets)

38 (36.6) [42] Likud Beitenu
22.1 (24.3) [08] Labor
14.7 (13.3) [—] Yesh Atid
11.7 (12) [10] Shas
9.1 (09) [07] National Union-Jewish Home
5.8 (5.3) [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
4.2 (05) [03] Meretz
4.0 (04) [04] Hadash
3.7 (3.3) [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
3.1 (03) [03] Balad
1.7 (2.6) [28] Kadima
0.5 (01) [05] Independence

03 [01] Am Shalem (based on 2 of 7 polls)

1.5 in one poll for Pensioners and Green Party each

66.3 (63) [65] Right
53.6 (57) [55] Center-Left

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