Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Smith conducted a poll that was published by Globes on August 28th 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [19] Likud

14 [12] Bayit Yehudi

14 [15] Labor

12 [12] Yisrael Beitenu

09 [19] Yesh Atid

09 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [06] Meretz

05 [04] Hadash

05 [–] New Kahlon Party

04 [06] Movement

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

75 [61] Right-Religious

45 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: This poll was conducted according to old 2% threshold and not the new 3.25% threshold.

* Reminder: MK Shama (Likud) resignation has lowered Likud from 20 seats to 19 seats. MK Miller (Yisrael Beitenu) who took the seat raises his party from 11 seats to 12 seats.

Dialog conducted a poll that was published by Haaretz on August 28th 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [19] Likud
17 [12] Bayit Yehudi
14 [15] Labor
12 [19] Yesh Atid
11 [12] Yisrael Beitenu
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [11] Shas
07 [06] Meretz
06 [04] Hadash
04 [06] Movement
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
04 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima

69 [61] Right-Religious
51 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: This poll was conducted according to new 3.25% threshold.

* Reminder: MK Shama (Likud) resignation has lowered Likud from 20 seats to 19 seats. MK Miller (Yisrael Beitenu) who took the seat raises his party from 11 seats to 12 seats.

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on August 28th 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [19] Likud
19 [12] Bayit Yehudi
15 [15] Labor
12 [19] Yesh Atid
09 [12] Yisrael Beitenu
09 [06] Meretz
08 [11] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima

70 [61] Right-Religious
50 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.

* Reminder: MK Shama (Likud) resignation has lowered Likud from 20 seats to 19 seats. MK Miller (Yisrael Beitenu) who took the seat raises his party from 11 seats to 12 seats.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud remains on top with 27 seats and Economy Minister Bennett’s Bayit Yehudi remains in the second position with 19 seats. Opposition Leader Herzog’s Labor is third with 15 seats and Finance Minister Lapid’s Yesh Atid is fourth with 12 seats. Foreign Minister Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu and left-wing Meretz follow with nine seats each.

Additional Questions:

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on August 14th 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [19] Likud

19 [12] Bayit Yehudi

15 [15] Labor

11 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [06] Meretz

09 [12] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

70 [61] Right-Religious

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.
* MK Shama (Likud) resignation has lowered Likud from 20 seats to 19 seats. MK Miller (Yisrael Beitenu) who took the seat raises his party from 11 seats to 12 seats.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud Party remains on top with 28 seats, a drop of two seats from Panels poll two weeks ago. Economy Minister Naftali Bennett’s Bayit Yehudi Party scores 19 seats in this poll, the party has finished second place in five of the six polls conducted since the start of Operation Protective Edge (Dialog, Smith, Midgam and Panels). Opposition Leader Herzog’s Labor Party is in third place with 15 seats. Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu finishes in sixth place with nine seats, behind Finance Minister Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid Party 11 seats and Meretz’s ten seats.

Good news for Prime Minister Netanyahu: The right-religious bloc remains strong with 70 seats.
Bad news for Prime Minister Netanyahu: The internal Likud politics (Sa’ar, Erdan, Danon, Feiglin, etc) are currently a huge headache and it is no sure thing he would be re-nominated within the Likud.

Additional Questions:

Are you pleased with the conduct of each person during Operation Protective Edge?

Chief of Staff Gantz: 77% Pleased, 19% Not pleased
Defense Minister Yaalon: 57% Pleased, 36% Not pleased
Prime Minister Netanyahu: 56% Pleased, 39% Not pleased
Economy Minister Bennett: 50% Pleased, 43% Not pleased
Foreign Minister Liberman: 40% Pleased, 54% Not pleased
Justice Minister Livni: 39% Pleased, 50% Not pleased
Finance Minister Lapid: 35% Pleased, 57% Not pleased

Are you pleased with the conduct of Prime Minister Netanyahu during the  Cairo negotiations?

52% No 33% Yes

Should Israel cooperate with UN inquiry commission?

55% No, 35% Yes

What level of damage will be caused to Israel following UN inquiry commission?

48% No significant damage, 25% significant damage, 15% No damage at all

Will the UN inquiry commission be fair or are the conclusions known ahead of time?

91% Conclusions leaning towards the Palestinians, 2% Conclusions will be fair

Should Israel conduct direct negotiations with Hamas regarding the Gaza Strip?

69% No, 21% Yes

What affect, if any has Operation Protective Shield had on Israeli deterrence vs Hamas?

35% No difference, 30% Deterrence was damaged, 28% Improvement in deterrence

Should Israel agree to ease the blockade on Gaza?

76% No, 18% Yes

Should Operation Protective Edge be upgraded to war status?

71% Yes, 19% No

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The IDF COS & Defense Minister score higher than Prime Minister Netanyahu. Bennett outmaneuvers other coalition party leaders (Liberman, Lapid & Livni) as the only party leader with higher favorable numbers (50%) than unfavorable numbers (43%). Israelis have a clear feeling on proposed UN commission.

* Panel Politics published a day later (Aug 15) on their Facebook page the results of an additional question that had not been broadcast by the Knesset Channel.

Which candidate is most fit to be Prime Minister?

30% Prime Minister Netanyahu, 16% Economy Minister Bennett, 11% Oppositon Leader Herzog, 6% Foreign Minister Liberman, 6% Justice Minister Livni, 3% Defense Minister Yaalon, 3% Finance Minister Lapid. 25% – None of them.

Midgam conducted a poll of 500 people that was broadcast by Channel 2 on Aug 7 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

23 [19] Likud

15 [12] Bayit Yehudi

14 [15] Labor

12 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

10 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [07] Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad

07 [–] Kachalon

06 [06] Meretz

06 [06] Movement

05 [04] Hadash

00 [02] Kadima

72 [61] Right-Religious-Kachalon

48 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: This poll was conducted according to the new 3.25% threshold. Currently Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad are separate factions.

Additional Questions:

Who is most fit to serve as Prime Minister?

38% Netanyahu, 11% Bennett, 9% Liberman, 9% Herzog, 8% Livni, 3% Kachalon, 3% Lapid

Are you pleased with Netanyahu’s conduct of war?

58% Yes, 37% No

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The Netanyahu-Liberman-Bennett trio captures 50 seats in this poll. The three, along with Herzog are among the top 4 parties and the top 4 Prime Minister candidates. For now, the right seems to have clearly benefited from the war.