Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on July 31st 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [20] Likud

18 [12] Bayit Yehudi

15 [15] Labor

10 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [06] Meretz

09 [11] Shas

08 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [06] Movement

03 [04] Hadash

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

72 [61] Right-Religious

48 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud is on top with 30 seats. Economy Minister Naftali Bennett’s Bayit Yehudi comes in second with 18 seats in the Panels poll, compared to 13 seats in the Smith poll. Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu has 8 seats in the Panels poll, compared to 13 seats in the Smith poll. The explanation of this unusual 5-seat difference between Panels & Smith in regards to recent polls for both parties following the Likud Beitenu split can be explained simply that most likely the actual result is in the middle of both polling systems margin of error.

Smith conducted a poll that was published by Globes on July 31st 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [20] Likud

14 [15] Labor

13 [12] Bayit Yehudi

13 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

11 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [06] Meretz

06 [–] Kachalon Party

04 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [06] Movement

00 [02] Kadima

78 [61] Right-Religious-Kachalon

43 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: There are 120 seats, this poll comes out to 121 seats, it is not clear which party would lose a seat.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud has a great showing with 31 seats, the same number he won 18 months ago with an alliance with Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu. The split works out well for both sides as Liberman grows from 11 seats to 13. The combined Likud-Yisrael Beitenu combo of 44 seats is a collective growth of 13 seats. This poll allows for a Netanyahu-Liberman-Bennett-Kachalon coalition of 63 seats, without the need for the Shas, UTJ or Yesh Atid parties.

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on July 17^th 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [20] Likud

19 [12] Bayit Yehudi

15 [15] Labor

11 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [06] Meretz

08 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [11] Shas

06 [–] Kachalon Party

05 [06] Movement

03 [04] Hadash

03 [03] Balad

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

00 [02] Kadima

70 [61] Right-Religious-Kachalon

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud remains number 1. Current trends continue, Bayit Yehudi remains in second and receives 19 seats in this poll. Center-left bloc continues their drop, as expected during wartime. Kachalon is included in this poll, as is the old 2% threshold. The larger parties would see their seats increase if you did not include Kachalon and the poll was conducted with the new 3.25% threshold.

10 Additional Questions:

Should we conduct a ground operation in Gaza now?

63% Yes, 27% No

Do you believe that Israel can topple the Hamas regime in Gaza?

58% Yes, 35% No

Do you think that business owners that sustained damage during Operation Protective Edge will receive adequate financial compensation from the government?

55% No, 33% Yes

Are you pleased or not pleased from the conduct of the following people during Operation Protective Edge?

IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz: Pleased 75%, Not Pleased 14%
Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon: Pleased 59%, Not Pleased 32%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: Pleased 53%, Not Pleased 43%
Economy Minister Naftali Bennett: Pleased 43%, Not Pleased 48%
Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman: Pleased 38%, Not Pleased 57%
Finance Minister Yair Lapid: Pleased 33%, Not Pleased 52%

Other factors such as Justice Minister Livni & Opposition Leader Herzog were not polled.

Should the Prime Minister form a national unity government with the opposition parties to strengthen him during this operation?

60% No, 28% Yes

Did Prime Minister Netanyahu act correctly by firing Deputy Defense Minister Danon following Danon’s comments against the security cabinet decision?

Acted correctly 51%, did not act correctly 33%.

Among Likud voters: 54% Acted correctly, 24% did not act correctly.

Are Foreign Minister Liberman’s comments against the Prime Minister, against the security cabinet decision for a ceasefire and other decisions appropriate or not appropriate?

61% Not appropriate, 29% appropriate.

Is Israeli Hasbara succeeding in achieving international support for Operation Protective Edge?

51% No, 41% Yes

Should the Israeli government at some point work towards a ceasefire?

65% No, 27% Yes

Have you been in an area where a siren sounded since the beginning of Operation Protective Edge?

87% Yes, 13% No

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: 87% of Israelis have been under a siren, 65% reject a ceasefire, 63% support a ground operation, 58% feel IDF can topple Hamas. 51% support Netanyahu decision to fire Danon and 61% find Liberman’s behavior not appropriate.

Dialogue conducted a poll for Haaretz of 520 people, with a 4.3% margin of error on July 9th 2014 under the supervision of pollster Kamil Fox. He also took out a scenario poll in the case that Kachalon starts a party.

Poll 1: Knesset Parties as they are today

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [20] Likud

16 [12] Bayit Yehudi

15 [15] Labor

14 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

13 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

69 [61] Right-Religious

51 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Right-religious block of 69 seats is remarkable showing for Prime Minister Netanyahu & his right wing allies Foreign Minister Liberman and Economy Minister Bennett. The three right-wing parties gain 12 seats.

Poll #2: Scenario with Kachalon Party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

21 [20] Likud

16 [12] Bayit Yehudi

15 [–] Kachalon Party

13 [15] Labor

12 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

11 [19] Yesh Atid

09 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

04 [04] Hadash

00 [06] Movement

00 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

78 [61] Right-Religious-Kachalon

42 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: In this scenario poll the Right-religious-Kachalon block grows from 69 seats to 78 seats. Kachalon becomes the third largest party taking for Likud & Yisrael Beitenu, but more importantly taking seats from Labor, Yesh Atid, Meretz & throwing Livni’s party under the new 3.25% threshold. This is an obvious nightmare scenario for the center-left bloc.

Additional Questions:

What motivated Foreign Minister Liberman to split away from the Likud?

45% Personal political motives, 35% Principled motives, 20% Don’t know

Are you pleased or not pleased with the following public figures?

Defense Minister Yaalon: 57% Pleased, 26% Not pleased
Prime Minister Netanyahu: 40% Pleased, 50% Not pleased
Foreign Minister Liberman: 31% Pleased, 56% Not pleased
Finance Minister Lapid: 26% Pleased, 61% Not pleased
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Based on Haaretz’s last poll, Yaalon gained 3% in favorability and improved on his unfavorable numbers by 7%. Liberman’s favorability dropped 10% & his unfavorable numbers increased by 6%. Lapid & Netanyahu stayed pretty steady compared to the last poll. The other coalition factors Bennett & Livni were not polled.

Panels conducted a poll on July 7^th, following the announcement of the Likud Beitenu split. It was published the next day on July 8^th 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

21 [20] Likud

19 [15] Labor

18 [12] Bayit Yehudi

11 [19] Yesh Atid

11 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

11 [06] Meretz

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [11] Shas

05 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [03] Balad

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

00 [02] Kadima

63 [61] Right-Religious

57 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Likud-Yisrael Beitenu split gives the right-religious block a three seat advantage compared to the previous poll conducted before the split. However Likud is the clear loser from this split. Likud only has a two-seat edge over Labor & a three-seat edge over Bayit Yehudi. Labor or Bayit Yehudi could be the largest party in Knesset if you factor in the margin of error. I’m happy that every poll from now on will be divided up between Likud & Yisrael Beitenu because that has been obvious for a long time. Shas keeps falling and is now under UTJ. Livni’s party has an impressive showing of 5 seats after being under threshold in all recent polls.

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel July 3rd 2014.
The poll was conducted from afternoon of July 2nd until the morning of July 3rd.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [31] Likud Beitenu

21 [15] Labor

18 [12] Bayit Yehudi

13 [19] Yesh Atid

12 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

03 [06] Movement

00 [02] Kadima

60 [61] Right-Religious

60 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Bennett up, Netanyahu down. Prime Minister always goes down when he decides not to take action.

Additional Questions:

How should Israel react to Hamas in Gaza in response to murder of boys and escalation in the south?

62% Attack targets from the air
23% Ground attack in the strip
6% Restraint

Do you approve or not approve of the conduct of each one of the responsible factors during the events of the kidnapping?

Prime Minister Netanyahu: Approve 44%, Do not approve 51%
IDF (army): Approve 76%, Do not approve 19%
Shabak (shin bet): Approve 70%, Do not approve 21%
Police: Approve 13%, Do not approve 84%

Should an Investigative Committee be formed to investigate the conduct of the police surrounding the event of the boys abduction?

81% Yes, 14% No.

Should the Police Commishiner resign due to the conduct the police during the  event of the boys abduction?

39% Yes, 45% No.

Smith conducted two polls that were published in Globes in May 30th.

The poll was conucted May 26-27 (before the Presidential Deadline and Rivlin endorsements by Bennett and Netanyahu).

The first poll was with the 12 Knesset factions as they are today.

The second poll was a scenario poll with a Kachalon Party, and Likud running separate from Yisrael Beitenu.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [31] Likud Beitenu

17 [15] Labor

15 [19] Yesh Atid

15 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [11] Shas

09 [06] Meretz

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

08 [07] Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad

04 [04] Hadash

00 [06] Movement

00 [02] Kadima

67 [61] Right-Religious

53 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

23 [20] Likud

15 [15] Labor

14 [–] Kachalon

13 [12] Bayit Yehudi

11 [19] Yesh Atid

09 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

09 [06] Meretz

08 [07] Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [04] Hadash

00 [06] Movement

00 [02] Kadima

73 [61] Right-Religious-Kachalon

47 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: If you consider Kachalon right wing (or at least more right over Lapid) he brings 6 additional seats over to the right-religious block. Livni is not able to pass the new threshold in either poll.