Panels conducted a poll of 520 people that was published by Walla on March 29 2017.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
28 [11] Yesh Atid
24 [30] Likud
13 [08] Bayit Yehudi
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [24] Zionist Union
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [07] Shas
06 [05] Meretz
64 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
56 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition
Additional Questions:
Does Netanyahu really want to go to elections right now?
67% No, 17% Don’t know, 16% Yes
Which side do you support in the current coalition crisis?
41% Kahlon, 32% Don’t know, 27% Netanyahu
Difficulté to understand membres of Knesset by olim hadaschim
Hi Jeremy – What do you think would be Lapid’s best path to 61 after Phases 2 and 3?
Even in an unlikely scenario where the current coalition slips to 58, the current opposition has 62, but Lapid wouldn’t want to include TJL. So could he get ~ 11+ Kahlon, Liberman and/or Bennett?
Or would he prefer to create a govt where’s he’s PM and post-Bibi Likud is the 2nd largest party?
Lapid is in a similar situation that most of Netanyahu’s opponents have been in the past. Yesh Atid might be able to win Phase 1 (the Knesset elections) but that is a far way off from the Prime Minister’s Residence. In a previous Weekend Perspective piece titled “The Key to Defeating Netanyahu is Phase 2” I put forth the blueprint to what it would take to defeat the current Prime Minister. Lapid is instead trying a different method. Lapid believes that as the largest party in Phase 1 that he can invite the leaders of the right (Likud) and left (Labor) to join his coalition as the second and third largest parties. This is a coalition he feels should be able to form a majority in the Knesset. If one of the two largest parties does not agree to nominate him in Phase 2 so his plan is to reach out to Liberman (who he maintains excellent relations with) and Kahlon (who he does not have the best relationship with). I don’t see any of those options working because Lapid is jumping to Phase 3 without any regard for Phase 2. Netanyahu, Liberman and Kahlon are not going to nominate Lapid in Phase 2. Lapid needs the Joint List to nominate him in Phase 2 and than switch them out for Yisrael Beitenu and Kulanu in Phase 3. Phase 2 is determined by who has the most nominations. Even if Netanyahu fails to reach 61 nominations in Phase 2, Lapid is going to get less nominations. That is why I don’t see a path forward for Lapid to become Prime Minister at this time.
Edit – “So could he get ~11+ from a combination of Kahlon, Liberman and/or Bennett?” Thanks for your thoughts.