Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on July 31st 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [20] Likud

18 [12] Bayit Yehudi

15 [15] Labor

10 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [06] Meretz

09 [11] Shas

08 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [06] Movement

03 [04] Hadash

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

72 [61] Right-Religious

48 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud is on top with 30 seats. Economy Minister Naftali Bennett’s Bayit Yehudi comes in second with 18 seats in the Panels poll, compared to 13 seats in the Smith poll. Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu has 8 seats in the Panels poll, compared to 13 seats in the Smith poll. The explanation of this unusual 5-seat difference between Panels & Smith in regards to recent polls for both parties following the Likud Beitenu split can be explained simply that most likely the actual result is in the middle of both polling systems margin of error.

Smith conducted a poll that was published by Globes on July 31st 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [20] Likud

14 [15] Labor

13 [12] Bayit Yehudi

13 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

11 [19] Yesh Atid

08 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [06] Meretz

06 [–] Kachalon Party

04 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [06] Movement

00 [02] Kadima

78 [61] Right-Religious-Kachalon

43 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Note: There are 120 seats, this poll comes out to 121 seats, it is not clear which party would lose a seat.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud has a great showing with 31 seats, the same number he won 18 months ago with an alliance with Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu. The split works out well for both sides as Liberman grows from 11 seats to 13. The combined Likud-Yisrael Beitenu combo of 44 seats is a collective growth of 13 seats. This poll allows for a Netanyahu-Liberman-Bennett-Kachalon coalition of 63 seats, without the need for the Shas, UTJ or Yesh Atid parties.