Midgam conducted two Kachalon scenario polls on April 8th 2014 that was broadcast by Channel 10 News.
The polls use the new threshold (3.25%).
First poll is with Likud Beitenu together:
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
33 [31] Likud Beitenu
14 [15] Labor
13 [12] Bayit Yehudi
12 [19] Yesh Atid
10 [–] New Kachalon Party
08 [06] Meretz
07 [11] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [06] Movement
12 [12] New Hadash- Ra’am-Ta’al-Balad Party
00 [02] Kadima
60 [61] Right-Religious
50 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Second poll with Likud and Beitenu separate:
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
28 [20] Likud
14 [15] Labor
13 [12] Bayit Yehudi
11 [19] Yesh Atid
11 [–] New Kachalon Party
08 [06] Meretz
07 [11] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [11] Beitenu
04 [06] Movement
12 [12] New Hadash- Ra’am-Ta’al-Balad Party
00 [02] Kadima
60 [61] Right-Religious
49 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Likud is not taking a hit with the probable Kachalon return to politics. Although, if they run separately, Beitenu drops to 5 seats which is close to the new threshold he helped push through. Irony, huh? Labor is the real loser of the Kachalon return and barely keeps possession of second place. Many Israelis identify with Kachalon’s economic positions and Herzog’s emphasis on the diplomatic issues means little to many Israelis who care more about their daily lives. Kachalon is also more to the right when it comes to diplomatic/defense/national security issues, so this is a victory for the right in disguise. Yesh Atid does not suffer any further from a new player fighting over the centrist vote, although I expect that to change. Meretz who had enjoyed a recent bump loses a handful of seats to Kachalon as well. Shas keeps going down. Livni’s Movement Party actually passes the threshold. With the new threshold, only Kadima fails to pass it. Although things might change down the road, taking this one poll for what it is if I were Netanyahu, I might be happy to see a Kachalon Party.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Dear Jeremy,
We met and discussed energy policy at the pre Knesset election debate at Beit Daniel in Tel Aviv.
Please note that if Israeli green authorities in the Knesset adopt Witt Energy generators (www.witt-energy-solutions.com) for use by the Israeli Electric Corporation, Israel could drastically curtail its use of all fossil fuels, as well as forge a green Middle East peace.
Unfortunately, Peretz, Erdan, Landau, Shalom, and Hannin are clueless on this technology, although Dr. Alon Tal is aware of it.
You, like Rabbi Lipman, I would like to see as long serving Knesset members!!!
If you haven’t heard about the Kachlon comeback, here’s a link: http://www.timesofisrael.com/popular-ex-likud-minister-slams-old-party-plans-political-comeback/
Hi KJ,
Why do you keep splitting it by Right-Religious and Centre-Left-Arab etc when the last elections threw that old model to the garbage? Or do you see the next government to be split along those lines once again?
Being Kahalon’s left economically and right politically, where does that put him in your split?
Netanyahu can only be re-elected if he has at least 61 seats in the right-religious block, that is why I measure it.
I left him out of this poll, but I would imagine that he would join any Netanyahu coalition.
I thought he can be re-elected if he is the leader of the party with the most seats and is able to get a coalition of 61+ seats wherever he can find them – such as the previous election where these were made up of Right and Center, excluding the large Ultra-Orthodox parties. Sorry to nitpick.
The President appoints a leader of a party with the honor of trying to create a coalition after he meets with each party and hears who they nominate.
Netanyahu did not have the largest party in 2009, but he received support from parties totaling 65 MKs so the President chose him.
In 2013 Peres chose Netanyahu because parties totaling 80 MKs supported him.
1. great that Bayit Yehudi is not affected even when Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu runs separately (several months ago there were some polls showing otherwise).
2. Kachalon belonged to Likud (of course I know it is true), but is it supposed to be a joke? When he takes away seats from Shas, Labor and even Meretz it should be a joke – well then it is good that he has left Likud!
3. Quite interesting that Yisrael Beiteinu loses so much when it runs alone (loses seats to Likud probably). Maybe the YB-electorate did not like the tone Lieberman has taken on the peace process during the last year + the YB-“nationalists” are far more quiet on giving away the Land of Israel than e.g. Likud nationalists.That could be an explanation.
1 – each poll shows something different. still rather fluid.
2 – Kachalon is sephardi so taking away from Shas makes sense. He is a socialist so taking away votes from Labor & Meretz who feel their party leaders are not pushing an economic agenda makes sense as well.
3 – it looks like Liberman’s move to the center has really hurt him. I expect to see him readjust to the right to compensate.
ok, another question. Was Otzma polled or not?
no
it surely makes a differense if they passed the threshold.
should Bayit Yehudi not be able to capture some of the seats leaving Yisrael Beiteinu, given the bigger secular role in BY?
i think a lot of this will depend on the final lists.
i pointed this out in last cycle, that things moved around a lot but kind of stabilized the day after the knesset lists were submitted and we knew who was running and at what numbers.