Archive for January, 2013


Here are the highs and lows of Israel’s top 20 populated cities for the Knesset’s 12 parties.

Likud Beitenu: Avg 23%.

Highs: 42% Ashkelon, 38% Beer Sheva, 36% Ashdod.

Lows: 4% Bnei Brak, 18% Tel Aviv, 19% Raanana.

Yesh Atid: Avg 14%.

Highs: 26% Hertzlia, 23% Rishon Letzion and Ramat Gan.

Lows: 1% Bnei Brak, 4% Bet Shemesh, 7% Jerusalem.

Labor: Avg 11%.

Highs: 19% Kfar Saba, 17% Tel Aviv and Ramat Gan.

Lows: 1% Bnei Brak, 3% Bet Shemesh, 6% Ashdod.

Bayit Yehudi: Avg 9%.

Highs: 14% Bet Shemesh and Raanana, 13% Petah Tikva.

Lows: 4%, Tel Aviv and Bnei Brak, 6% Haifa, Holon and Hertzlia.

Shas: Avg 8%.

Highs: 25% Bnei Brak, 18% Bet Shemesh, 17% Ashdod.

Lows: 2% Modiin, 3% Haifa and Raanana.

UTJ: Avg 5%.

Highs: 60% Bnei Brak, 28% Bet Shemesh, 22% Jerusalem.

Lows: <1% Holon, Kfar Saba and Modiin.

Movement: Avg 4%.

Highs: 8% Hertzlia, 7% Tel Aviv, Haifa, Rishon Letzion and 4 others.

Lows: <1% Bnei Brak, 1% Bet Shemesh, 2% Jerusalem.

Meretz: Avg 4%.

Highs: 14% Tel Aviv, 8% Hertzlia, 7% Ramat Gan, Kfar Saba and Raanana.

Lows: <1% Bnei Brak, 1% Ashdod, Ashkelon and Bet Shemesh.

Ra’am-Ta’al: Avg 3%.

Highs: 1% Tel Aviv.

Lows: <1% 19 cities.

Hadash: Avg 2%.

Highs: 5% Haifa, 2% Tel Aviv.

Lows: <1% 18 cities.

Balad: Avg 2%.

Highs: 2% Haifa.

Lows: <1% 19 cities.

Kadima: Avg 2%.

Highs: 3% Rishon Letzion, Holon, Ramat Gan and Hertzlia.

Lows: <1% Bnei Brak and Bet Shemesh, 1% Jerusalem and Ashdod.

Top 20 Cities Breakdown

Party/City National Avg Tel Aviv Jerusalem Haifa Rishon Petah Tikva Ashdod
Overall Votes 3,792,742 244,901 241,139 139,363 125,345 111,194 103,274
Likud Beitenu 23% 18% 21% 26% 31% 29% 36%
Yesh Atid 14.33% 21% 7% 18% 23% 18% 10%
Labor 11.39% 17% 7% 15% 14% 11% 6%
Bayit Yehudi 9.12% 4% 12% 6% 7% 13% 7%
Shas 8.75% 6% 16% 3% 5% 7% 17%
UTJ 5.16% 1% 22% 3% 1% 4% 10%
Movement 4.99% 7% 2% 7% 7% 5% 4%
Meretz 4.55% 14% 4% 5% 2% 2% 1%
Ra’am-Ta’al 3.65% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Hadash 2.99% 2% <1% 5% <1% <1% <1%
Balad 2.56% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1%
Kadima 2.08% 2% 1% 2% 3% 2% 1%
Party/City Holon Netanya Beer Sheva Ramat Gan Bnei Brak Bat Yam Rechovot
Overall Votes 93,248 92,694 85,611 80,182 75,147 63,960 62,147
Likud Beitenu 31% 34% 38% 23% 4% 37% 27%
Yesh Atid 20% 16% 11% 23% 1% 15% 17%
Labor 13% 9% 8% 17% 1% 10% 13%
Bayit Yehudi 6% 11% 12% 7% 4% 7% 11%
Shas 11% 11% 13% 4% 25% 12% 8%
UTJ <1% 2% 1% 1% 60% 1% 4%
Movement 6% 4% 5% 7% >1% 6% 6%
Meretz 3% 2% 2% 7% >1% 2% 4%
Ra’am-Ta’al <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Hadash <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Balad <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Kadima 3% 2% 2% 3% <1% 2% 2%
Party/City Ashkelon Kfar Saba Hertzlia Raanana Modiin Hadera Bet Shemesh
Overall Votes 54,431 51,659 50,958 41,153 39,954 38,578 29,593
Likud Beitenu 42% 23% 22% 19% 23% 34% 23%
Yesh Atid 10% 22% 26% 24% 27% 16% 4%
Labor 7% 19% 16% 16% 15% 12% 3%
Bayit Yehudi 9% 7% 6% 14% 12% 8% 14%
Shas 14% 4% 4% 3% 2% 9% 18%
UTJ 1% <1% 1% 1% <1% 2% 28%
Movement 4% 7% 8% 7% 7% 6% 1%
Meretz 1% 7% 8% 7% 6% 2% 1%
Ra’am-Ta’al <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Hadash <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Balad <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Kadima 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% <1%

Official election results were announced a week after the elections.

3,834,210 of the 5,656,705 eligable voters (67.78%) voted in the election.
40,914 of the votes were disqualified for various reasons leaving 3,793,296 “kosher” votes.

12 parties entered Knesset after passing the 2% threshold.

Party                    Letters Seats   % of vote   Total Votes

Likud Beitenu מחל 31 23.33%
885,054
Yesh Atid פה 19 14.33%
543,458
Labor אמת 15 11.39%
432,119
Bayit Yehudi טב 12 9.12%
345,985
Shas שס 11 8.75%
331,871
UTJ ג 7 5.16%
195,893
Movement צפ 6 4.99%
189,168
Meretz מרץ 6 4.54%
172,403
Ra’am-Ta’al עם 4 3.66%
138,782
Hadash ו 4 3.00%
113,613
Balad ד 3 2.56%
97,071
Kadima כן 2 2.08%
79,081
Strong Israel נץ 0 1.76%
66,775
Am Shalem ץ 0 1.20%
45,691
Green Leaf קנ 0 1.15%
43,734
Eretz Hadasha ז 0 0.74%
28,080
Koach Lahaspia פז 0 0.74%
28,049
HaYisraelim יק 0 0.50%
18,941
Greens רק 0 0.21%
8,117
Pensioners זך 0 0.16%
5,975
Chaim Bkavod הפ 0 0.10%
3,640
Da’am ק 0 0.09%
3,546
Achim Anachnu פנ 0 0.08%
2,899
Social Justice צק 0 0.08%
2,877
Na Nach פץ 0 0.06%
2,176
Pirates פ 0 0.05%
2,076
Kalkala פי 0 0.05%
1,972
Mitkademet Liberalit נק 0 0.04%
1,352
Or ני 0 0.03%
1,027
Brit Olam נ 0 0.02%
761
Hatikva Leshinui הק 0 0.02%
649
Moreshet Avot הי 0 0.01%
461

I’ll post some other breakdowns in the coming days.

My Guess Poll

33 Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
16 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
15 Labor
10 Shas
09 Yesh Atid
07 Movement
06 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 Hadash
05 Ra’am-Ta’al
04 Kadima
04 Meretz
03 Balad
03 Strong Israel

Am Shalem and others don’t pass threshold

68 Right-Religious
52 Center-Left-Arab

* I predict a 22 seat shift from avg of polls but I don’t predict any shift that is larger than 3 seats.

* I don’t have time to explain my picks but I should be allowed to explain how I got to my picks after the deadline. As I had mentioned before, Israeli law forbids predicting results or publishing polls after today.
___________________________________________________________

Final Seats accourding to avg of polls, voting swaps and lost votes:

35 Likud Beitenu
18 Labor
15 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
12 Yesh Atid
11 Shas
07 Movement
06 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 Meretz
04 Hadash
03 Ra’am-Ta’al
03 Balad

67 Right-Religious
53 Center-Left-Arab

Kadima, Strong Israel, Am Shalem and others don’t pass 2.4% threshold.

Poll of Polls: http://knessetjeremy.com/2013/01/18/knesset-jeremy-poll-of-polls-likud-beitenu-33-7-labor-16-5-bayit-yehudi-14-0-yesh-atid-10-9-shas-10-6-movement-7-2/#comment-1648

Knesset Jeremy – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #15 (week of Jan 12-18 2013) of 16 polls (3 Panels, 2 Maagar Mochot, 2 Smith, 2 Midgam, 2 Dahaf, 2 Dialog, Teleseker, New Wave, Geocartography)

Current Knesset seats in [brackets], Week 14 average in (brackets):

33.7 (34.0) [42] Likud Beitenu
16.5 (17.3) [08] Labor
14.0 (14.2) [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
10.9 (10.3) [---] Yesh Atid
10.6 (10.3) [10] Shas
7.2 (7.8) [07] Movement
5.8 (6.0) [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
5.7 (4.8) [03] Meretz
3.9 (3.7) [04] Hadash
3.5 (3.6) [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
3.4 (3.3) [03] Balad
2.3 (1.4) [21] Kadima
1.9 (1.2) [02] Strong Israel
0.6 (1.0) [01] Am Shalem
— (0.0) [05] Independence (No longer running)

66.3 (67.07) [65] Right-Religious
53.6 (52.92) [55] Center-Left-Arab

Changes from week 14 to week 15:
Yesh Atid passes Shas for 4th place.

Largest Gains: Kadima and Meretz gained 0.9 of a seat each, Meretz and Strong Israel gained 0.7.

Biggest Losses: Labor lost 0.8 of a seat and Movement lost 0.6 of a seat.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Final Seats accourding to avg of polls, voting swaps and lost votes:

35 Likud Beitenu
18 Labor
15 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
12 Yesh Atid
11 Shas
7 Movement
6 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
6 Meretz
4 Hadash
3 Ra’am-Ta’al
3 Balad

67 Right-Religious
53 Center-Left-Arab

Kadima, Strong Israel, Am Shalem and others don’t pass 2.0% threshold of 2.4 seats.

* Next post will include my “Guess Poll”.

Panels conducted a poll that was published by the Yisrael Post/Sof Hashauva on Jan 18 2013. Supposedly, this was the last poll conuducted by any company before the deadline.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
16 [08] Labor
14 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
11 [---] Yesh Atid
10 [10] Shas
07 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
03 [02] Strong Israel
02 [21] Kadima
01 [01] Am Shalem (not passing)
00 [05] Independence (not running)

67 [65] Right-Religious
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab

* 8 seats don’t pass Knesset thanks to Am Shalem, Green Leaf, Koach Lahaspia, Eretz Hadasha, Greens who all have around a seat each. There are other small parties that eat up votes.

* 10% are still undecided

Smith conducted a poll that was published by the Jpost.com (Jerusalem Post) on Jan 18 2013. The poll was conducted Wed and Thurs night.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17 [08] Labor
14 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
12 [---] Yesh Atid
11 [10] Shas
06 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [03] Balad
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
02 [21] Kadima
02 [01] Am Shalem
00 [02] Strong Israel (almost 2)
00 [05] Independence (not running)

66 [65] Right-Religious
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab

Dahaf conducted a poll of 1000 people with an error rate of 0.9 to 3.2 seats for Yediot Achronot that was published on Jan 18 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17 [08] Labor
13 [---] Yesh Atid
12 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
11 [10] Shas
08 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
02 [21] Kadima
02 [02] Strong Israel
00 [01] Am Shalem
00 [05] Independence (not running)

63 [65] Right-Religious
57 [55] Center-Left-Arab

Dialog conducted a poll for Haaertz that was published on Jan 17 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17 [08] Labor
14 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
12 [10] Shas
12 [---] Yesh Atid
08 [07] Movement
06 [03] Meretz
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [04] Hadash
04 [03] Balad
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
02 [21] Kadima
01 [02] Strong Israel (1.4%) not passing
01 [01] Am Shalem (1%) not passing
00 [05] Independence (not running)

63 [65] Right-Religious
57 [55] Center-Left-Arab

Green Leaf 1%, Koach Lahaspia 0.8%, Eretz Hadasha 0.5%, Hayisraelim 0.4%, Greens 0.1%.

Smith conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.5% error rate for Jerusalem Post/Globes that was published on Jan 17 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17 [08] Labor
13 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
11 [10] Shas
11 [---] Yesh Atid
07 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [03] Balad
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
02 [21] Kadima
02 [02] Strong Israel
00 [01] Am Shalem
00 [05] Independence (not running)

66 [65] Right-Religious
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab

 

Eretz Hadasha and Green Leaf 1 seat each

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