Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Panels Polling Company conducted one last internet-based poll on Thursday, May 12, towards the end of the Knesset’s 46-day winter break. According to the poll the conservative block would receive 64 seats, representing a loss of one seat. Kadima would receive 31 seats and expand their lead over Likud to three seats. Despite six candidates campaigning for the Labor party leadership, Labor would not receive more than their current eight seats. Another interesting trend is that the smaller parties are either gaining or maintaining their support. This trend was predicted by a previous Dahaf poll which showed 55% of the 18-35 demographic voted for the smaller parties in the 2009 elections. It would seem that, according to the poll data, if National Union and the Jewish Home merged into one party, their nine seats would make them the fourth largest party in Knesset. This would create a scenario where three of the four largest parties would be conservative and could prevent the ultra-orthodox parties from joining a Kadima-led government.

If elections were held today, expressed in Knesset seats, current Knesset seats in [brackets].
31 [28] Kadima
28 [27] Likud
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
08 [11] Shas
08 [08] Labor
05 [04] National Union
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Meretz
04 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
11 [11] Arab parties*
1 [05] Independence led by Ehud Barak

• Israeli Arab seats would be distributed as follows: Hadash 4, Balad 4, Ra’am-Ta’al 3.
• Independence would not pass the required threshold and would forfeit their seat. It is unclear which party would pick up the 120th seat.

A Panels polling company internet-based poll taken today for Knesset Channel 99 asked Israeli voters who they would vote for if elections were held today. The poll was conducted to gauge the response to Liberman being charged with fraud, breach of trust, obtaining something through deceit, money laundering and witness harassment. The results show a shift of support to Foreign Minister Liberman. According to the poll Kadima would remain the largest party with 28 seats, with Likud one seat behind at 27. Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu would receive 20 seats, a gain of five from the last elections and just seven seats behind Netanyahu and Likud. Shas would receive 9 seats and Labor 8. Results for the smaller parties were not published.

A second poll was taken to examine the potential results should Liberman be forced to step down as the head of Yisrael Beitenu due to his legal troubles. The results of that poll showed that Yisrael Beitenu would receive 19 seats instead of 20. Kadima, Likud, Shas and Labor would receive the same number of seats as indicated in the first poll.

An internet-based poll by Panels Polling Company, conducted and published yesterday, reveals that if elections were held today Netanyahu’s Likud would be re-elected, defeating Livni’s Kadima. Likud would also become the Knesset’s largest party. This is the fourth poll conducted since the Bibi-Tours scandal with this result. According to the poll Likud would receive 30 seats, Kadima 28, Yisrael Beitenu 17, Shas 10, and Labor led by Amir Peretz just six seats. Results for the smaller parties were not released.

On the same day that former defense minister and Labor party chairman Peretz announced his candidacy for the third straight election the poll also asked the overall public who they support to lead the Labor party. The results show that Peretz is off to a slow start: Yacimovich received 34% of the vote, Herzog 27% and Peretz 8%. It is believed that Peretz has higher numbers among Labor party voters.

Three polls carried out following the initial Channel 10 report on the alleged Bibi Tours affair showed that Netanyahu’s Likud would remain the front-runner if elections were called today. The first poll awards the conservative block with 71 seats, an increase of six, although two of the seats gained are by the conservative opposition party National Union. The second poll, another in a series of liberal dream scenario polls including various potential parties, would limit the conservative block to 60 seats. The third poll maintains the conservative block’s current 65 seats, although those seats are redistributed at the expense of Shas. In all three polls Kadima would fall to become Israel’s second biggest party, the Labor party stands to lose seats and Ehud Barak’s Independence party does not pass the threshold.

Poll #1: Telephone poll of a representative sample of 500 adult Israelis (including Arab Israelis) carried out by Rafi Smith for Globes Magazine on March 28-29, 2011, and published on March 31, 2011. The survey error was +/- 4.4 percentage points.

Poll #2: Telephone poll of a representative sample of 506 adult Israelis (including Arab Israelis) that carried out by Shvakim Panorama for Israel Radio’s Hakol Diburim program on March 30, 2011, and broadcast on March 31, 2011. The survey error was +/- 4.4 percentage points.

Poll #3: Internet-based poll by Panels Polling Company for Knesset Channel 99 taken over the weekend of April 1-2, 2011, and televised Sunday, April 3, 2011.

The latest Dahaf poll’s attempt to create a scenario where the left would be able to form a coalition falls short; however, it did create a scenario where a national unity government would be likely. Dahaf asked the callers to pick a party, then repeated the question including a fictitious party headed by Aryeh Deri, the left-leaning former leader of Shas who was convicted in 2000 of accepting bribes while serving as interior minister and sentenced to three years in jail. According to the poll an Aryeh Deri party would win seven seats, taking two seats each from Kadima, Likud and Shas and one from Yisrael Beitenu. It is surprising that Yishai’s Shas would only lose two seats to Deri, who led Shas to 17 seats in 1999 and has remained popular in the Sephardi ultra-orthodox community. In the Deri scenario the right-wing bloc of Likud-Y.B.-Shas and the three smaller right-leaning parties would capture 58 seats, compared to 50 in the center-left bloc including Deri’s seven seats and the Green Party’s two seats. A national unity government of the three biggest parties, Kadima-Likud-Y.B., would receive 64 seats and would be able to form a coalition.

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats), first column with Deri’s party and second column without. Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
28 30 [28] Kadima
21 23 [27] Likud
15 16 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
08 10 [11] Shas
07 07 [08] Labor
06 06 [03] Meretz
06 06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 05 [04] National Union
03 03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
12 12 [11] Arab parties
02 02 [—] Green party
00 00 [05] Independence led by Ehud Barak
07 — [—] Party headed by Aryeh Deri

Telephone poll of a representative sample of 500 adult Israelis (including
Arab Israelis) carried out by Dahaf for Yediot Achronot the week of 20
February 2011 and published on 25 February 2011.