Panels Polling Company conducted one last internet-based poll on Thursday, May 12, towards the end of the Knesset’s 46-day winter break. According to the poll the conservative block would receive 64 seats, representing a loss of one seat. Kadima would receive 31 seats and expand their lead over Likud to three seats. Despite six candidates campaigning for the Labor party leadership, Labor would not receive more than their current eight seats. Another interesting trend is that the smaller parties are either gaining or maintaining their support. This trend was predicted by a previous Dahaf poll which showed 55% of the 18-35 demographic voted for the smaller parties in the 2009 elections. It would seem that, according to the poll data, if National Union and the Jewish Home merged into one party, their nine seats would make them the fourth largest party in Knesset. This would create a scenario where three of the four largest parties would be conservative and could prevent the ultra-orthodox parties from joining a Kadima-led government.

If elections were held today, expressed in Knesset seats, current Knesset seats in [brackets].
31 [28] Kadima
28 [27] Likud
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
08 [11] Shas
08 [08] Labor
05 [04] National Union
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Meretz
04 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
11 [11] Arab parties*
1 [05] Independence led by Ehud Barak

• Israeli Arab seats would be distributed as follows: Hadash 4, Balad 4, Ra’am-Ta’al 3.
• Independence would not pass the required threshold and would forfeit their seat. It is unclear which party would pick up the 120th seat.