Jeremy's Knesset Insider

The latest Globes poll including only the current parties shows Likud leading Kadima 29-27 and the conservative block gaining four seats to improve to a combined 69 seats. A second poll carried out with two fictional parties led by TV personality Yair Lapid and formerly jailed former Shas leader Aryeh Deri would cut into support of the two biggest parties, but Likud would still lead Kadima 22-20. The Lapid party’s 16 seats would make it the third biggest party and kingmaker. Deri’s party would receive eight seats and become the country’s fifth largest party. The Deri and Lapid parties would take seven seats each from Likud and Kadima, four from Shas, two from Yisrael Beitenu, two from Labor, one from Meretz and one from the Israeli Arab party block. In that scenario the conservative block would have 56 seats.

Telephone poll carried out by Rafi Smith Institute for Globes. The date the poll was conducted and the sample composition and size were not indicated. The poll was published July 1, 2011.

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats), current Knesset seats in [brackets].

29 22 [27] Likud
27 20 [28] Kadima
16 14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
09 07 [08] Labor
10 06 [11] Shas
06 06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 05 [04] National Union
04 03 [03] Meretz
03 03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
11 10 [11] Arab parties
— 16 [—] Yair Lapid Party [does not currently exist]
— 08 [—] Aryeh Deri Party [does not currently exist]
— — [05] Independence

Three polls show Kadima leading Likud and exactly who would lose from the return of formerly jailed Shas leader Aryeh Deri. In the first scenario, in which Deri stays out of politics, Likud would receive 26 seats and hold a narrow 63-seat conservative coalition consisting of Liberman and the religious parties.

In scenario two Deri leads Shas to 14 seats (four more than if he stays out of politics) and could either join Netanyahu for a 65-seat coalition or join Livni for a 57-seat minority government coalition relying on the Arab parties for support. Deri’s four-seat gain from the first scenario comes at the expense of Kadima (two seats), Yisrael Beitenu and Likud.

In the third scenario Deri starts his own party and runs as a separate entity to the left of Shas creating a 51-seat leftist block compared to the 57-seat right block. This scenario would make it impossible for Netanyahu to form a coalition, and his Likud party would have 24 seats compared to Kadima’s 29. In this scenario the nine-seat Deri party comes at the expense of two Kadima seats, two Likud seats, two Shas seats, one Yisrael Beitenu seat, one Meretz seat and, surprisingly, one National Union seat.

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Telephone poll of a representative sample of adult Israelis (including Arab Israelis) carried out by Dahaf for Yediot Achronot the week of 24 June and published on 24 June 2011

If elections held today, expressed in Knesset seats [current seats in brackets]

26 25 24 [27] Likud
31 29 29 [28] Kadima
14 13 13 [15] Yisrael Beiteinu
10 10 10 [08] Labor
10  — 08 [11] Shas headed by Yishai
—  14 —  [11] Shas headed by Deri
—  —  09 [—] Deri Party
06 06 06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
03 03 03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
04 04 03 [04] National Union
04 04 03 [03] Meretz
12 12 12 [11] Arab parties
00 00 00 [05] Ehud Barak’s Independence Party

The latest poll shows the right wing block would receive 69 seats if elections were held today and Netanyahu’s Likud would receive 32 of those seats. The new wave poll shows a similar distribution to the current Knesset seats, with the exception of Likud’s five-seat gain and Defense Minister Barak’s Independence party losing its five seats. Yisrael Beitenu and Labor would add one seat each, and Shas would lose two. The seven smaller parties (UTJ/NU/NRP/Meretz/Arabs) would receive the same number of seats they won in the 2009 elections.

Telephone poll carried out by “New Wave” for Yisrael Hayom (Israel Today) newspaper the week of May 22 and published on May 27 with a representative sample of 620 adult Israelis including Israeli Arabs.

If elections held today who would you vote for? (Expressed in Knesset seats),
current Knesset seats in [brackets].

32 [27] Likud
28 [28] Kadima
16 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
09 [11] Shas
09 [08] Labor
05 [05] UTJ
04 [04] National Union
03 [03] Meretz
03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
11 [11] Arab parties
00 [05] Independence

An internet-based poll by the Panels Polling Company broadcast tonight (May 26) on Knesset Channel 99 has Netanyahu and the Likud party opening up a gap over Livni’s Kadima. Two polls taken earlier in the week showed similar results. Results for the smaller parties were not broadcast, so the right-wing block cannot be measured.

If elections were held today, expressed in Knesset seats, current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [27] Likud
24 [28] Kadima
15 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
10 [11] Shas
08 [08] Labor
NA [03] Meretz
NA [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
NA [04] National Union
NA [03] Jewish Home/NRP
NA [11] Arab parties
NA [05] Independence led by Ehud Barak

According to a poll broadcast yesterday the Likud had developed a five seat lead over Kadima 34-29. The second poll, published today, showed an eleven seat gap 33-22. The second poll gave the right 70 seats, a gain of five.

If elections were held today, expressed in Knesset seats, current Knesset seats in [brackets], Poll #1 on left and Poll #2 in middle.

34 33 [27] Likud
29 22 [28] Kadima
14 17 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
NA 10 [11] Shas
08 09 [08] Labor
NA 06 [03] Meretz
NA 05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
NA 03 [04] National Union
NA 02 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
NA 11 [11] Arab parties*
NA 02 [00] Green Party
NA 00 [05] Independence led by Ehud Barak

Poll #1 Sarid Institute Poll for Israel Television Channel 2 News broadcast on May 24

Poll #2 GeoCartographia Poll by Professor Avi Dagani published on May 25

GeoCartographia asked: Are you for or against ’67 borders with mutual swaps as outlined by President Obama? 61% were against, 27% were for.