Jeremy's Knesset Insider

A poll taken out by Maagar Mohot proves that even in a scenario where Liberman doesn’t take part in the next elections and the left wing’s savior Shelly Yacimovich leads the Labor party, Netanyahu’s Likud would form the next government. In the poll, Netanyahu’s Likud has a two-seat edge over Livni’s Kadima party 32-30, a gain of five and three seats, respectively. Yisrael Beitenu without Lieberman drops a seat to 14 and Labor led by Yacimovich drops to 7 seats. If Yishai leads Shas his party only loses one seat, and the other parties remain unchanged, aside from Meretz, which would pick up one seat. Another possible outcome would be a national-unity government of Likud and Kadima which could hold a narrow 62-seat coalition. As for president, Speaker Rivlin (Likud) leads former Speaker Itzik (Kadima) 61% to 15% with former minister Sharansky claiming 24% of the vote.

Telephone poll of a representative sample of 501 adult Israelis, including Israeli Arabs, carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute (headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz) the week of 18 February and published in the Makor Rishon paper on 18 February 2011

In this poll Yisrael Beitenu was not headed by Liberman. Ehud Barak’s Independence party did not get enough votes to get into the Knesset.

If elections were held today (expressed in Knesset seats) Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

32 [27] Likud headed by Netanyahu
30 [28] Kadima headed by Livni
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu not headed by Liberman
10 [11] Shas headed by Yishai
07 [08] Labor headed by Shelly Yacimovich
00 [05] Independence headed by Barak
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
04 [03] Meretz
04 [04] National Union
11 [11] Arab parties

Who would you like to be the next president?
Rivlin 61% Itzik 15% Sharansky 24%

Poll of representative sample of 500 Israeli adults carried out by Geocartography Knowledge Group – Prof. Avi Degani – this week for Israel Television Channel One’s Politika program. results broadcast on 15 February 2011

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats) Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

31 [28] Kadima
26 [27] Likud
17 [15] Yisrael Beiteinu
11 [11] Shas
06 [13] Labor
06 [03] Meretz
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] National Union
03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
11 [11] Arab parties
[none of the 500 people polled said that they would vote for Ehud Barak’s
party]

A channel 2 poll carried out by Sarid presented the question “Who is more fit to be prime minister?” and 32% responded Livni compared to just 28% who responded Netanyahu. It seems the raising of indirect taxes is hurting both the Likud and its coalition members. The poll shows 33 seats for Kadima, 29 for Likud, 15 for Lieberman, 8 for Shas and 8 for Labor. Barak’s Independence party doesn’t pass the threshold, earning only one seat. Results for the other parties were not shown.

The split of the Labor party and the establishment of the new Independence party piqued the interest of media across the country. Six separate polls were taken to gauge public opinion following the political shake up. All polls were conducted during the week of January 17-20, 2011.

My analysis is simple- it doesn’t matter which poll you are looking at, all of them show Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition maintaining the support of Israel’s citizens. It also presents a dark picture for Ehud Barak and his new Independence party.

Poll #1 was carried out by Channel 10

Poll #2 was carried out by Yediot Achronot (Dahaf)

Poll #3 was carried out by Channel 2

Poll #4 was carried out by Haaretz (Dialog)

Poll #5 was carried out by Maariv (Telesker)

Poll #6 was an alternate poll carried out by Maariv (Telesker)

Kadima, which today has 28 seats, would receive 27, 26, 29, 30 and 30 seats respectively in the first five polls for a combined range of 26-30 seats. In the alternate poll, Kadima would receive 31 seats with journalist Yair Lapid as their #2.

Likud, which today has 27 seats, would receive 30, 26, 28, 32 and 26 seats respectively in the first five polls for a combined range of 26-30 seats. In the alternate poll, Likud would receive 27 seats with Ehud Barak as their #2.

Yisrael Beitenu, which today has 15 seats, would receive 17, 14, 15, 15 and 16 seats respectively in five polls for a combined range of 14-17 seats.

Shas, which today has 11 seats, would receive 10, 10, 9, 11 and 10 seats respectively in five polls for a combined range of 9-11 seats.

United Torah Judaism, which today has 5 seats, would receive 6, 5 and 6 seats respectively in three polls for a combined range of 5-6 seats.

National Union, which today has 4 seats, would receive 3 seats according to one poll.

Jewish Home, which today has 3 seats, would receive 3 or 4 seats according to two different polls.

If the Jewish Home and National Union ran together they would receive 6 seats according to one poll. Today the parties together have 7 seats.

Meretz, which today has 3 seats, would receive 5 seats in both polls.

The three Arab parties, which today have 11 seats, would receive 9 or 10 seats according to two different polls.

Labor had 13 seats before the split and has 8 seats after it. Without Barak Labor would receive 8, 9, 5 and 8 respectively in the four polls for a combined range of 5-9 seats.

Ehud Barak’s Independence party, which currently has 5 seats, would receive 3, 2, 2, 2, 2 and 2 seats respectively in the first five polls for a combined range of 2-3 seats.

Dialog results:
Number of mandates for the Labor Party if specify who heads the Labor Party:
Yacimovich 10; Mitzne 9; Herzog 8; Braverman 5

Teleseker results:
Who is most appropriate to be the head of the Labor Party?
Herzog 19.9%; Mitzne 16.2%; Yacimovich 18.8%; Peretz 5.2%; Braverman 4.3%; Einy 3.9%; None of the above 14.9%; Don’t know 16.7%

In two separate polls carried out by the New Wave polling group for Channel 2 news Kadima has a lead over Likud. If Barak were to lead Labor in the next elections Kadima would receive 32 seats, Likud 29 and Labor 7. If Mitzne were to lead Labor then Kadima would receive just 30 seats, Likud 27 and Labor would maintain their 13. In both polls Lieberman would receive 16 and Yishai’s Shas would receive 10. Only the results of the five medium sized parties were released, and it is unknown how the seven smaller parties faired in either poll.

Channel 10’s poll, conducted the same day, found that Netanyahu was leading Livni 45% to 25% as the person most suited for the role of prime minister.

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Telephone poll carried out by New Wave for Israel Television Channel 2 news
and broadcast today. Results for only some parties were reported.

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats)
Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
30 32 [28] Kadima
27 29 [27] Likud
16 16 [15] Yisrael Beiteinu
10 10 [11] Shas headed by Eli Yishai *
13 — [13] Labor headed by Mitzne

— 07 [13] Labor headed by Barak

When Arieh Deri heads Shas in the poll Shas get 15 seats instead of 10.

Who do you think is most apropriate to head Shas?

Deri 29%

Etias 15%

Yishai 12%

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Dialog poll broadcast Wednesday night on Channel 10.

The poll, taken by Tel Aviv University Professor Camille Fuchs, found that 45 percent of Israelis consider Netanyahu more fitting to be prime minister while just 25 percent prefer Livni.