Jeremy's Knesset Insider

The latest Dahaf poll’s attempt to create a scenario where the left would be able to form a coalition falls short; however, it did create a scenario where a national unity government would be likely. Dahaf asked the callers to pick a party, then repeated the question including a fictitious party headed by Aryeh Deri, the left-leaning former leader of Shas who was convicted in 2000 of accepting bribes while serving as interior minister and sentenced to three years in jail. According to the poll an Aryeh Deri party would win seven seats, taking two seats each from Kadima, Likud and Shas and one from Yisrael Beitenu. It is surprising that Yishai’s Shas would only lose two seats to Deri, who led Shas to 17 seats in 1999 and has remained popular in the Sephardi ultra-orthodox community. In the Deri scenario the right-wing bloc of Likud-Y.B.-Shas and the three smaller right-leaning parties would capture 58 seats, compared to 50 in the center-left bloc including Deri’s seven seats and the Green Party’s two seats. A national unity government of the three biggest parties, Kadima-Likud-Y.B., would receive 64 seats and would be able to form a coalition.

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats), first column with Deri’s party and second column without. Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
28 30 [28] Kadima
21 23 [27] Likud
15 16 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
08 10 [11] Shas
07 07 [08] Labor
06 06 [03] Meretz
06 06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 05 [04] National Union
03 03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
12 12 [11] Arab parties
02 02 [—] Green party
00 00 [05] Independence led by Ehud Barak
07 — [—] Party headed by Aryeh Deri

Telephone poll of a representative sample of 500 adult Israelis (including
Arab Israelis) carried out by Dahaf for Yediot Achronot the week of 20
February 2011 and published on 25 February 2011.

A poll taken out by Maagar Mohot proves that even in a scenario where Liberman doesn’t take part in the next elections and the left wing’s savior Shelly Yacimovich leads the Labor party, Netanyahu’s Likud would form the next government. In the poll, Netanyahu’s Likud has a two-seat edge over Livni’s Kadima party 32-30, a gain of five and three seats, respectively. Yisrael Beitenu without Lieberman drops a seat to 14 and Labor led by Yacimovich drops to 7 seats. If Yishai leads Shas his party only loses one seat, and the other parties remain unchanged, aside from Meretz, which would pick up one seat. Another possible outcome would be a national-unity government of Likud and Kadima which could hold a narrow 62-seat coalition. As for president, Speaker Rivlin (Likud) leads former Speaker Itzik (Kadima) 61% to 15% with former minister Sharansky claiming 24% of the vote.

Telephone poll of a representative sample of 501 adult Israelis, including Israeli Arabs, carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute (headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz) the week of 18 February and published in the Makor Rishon paper on 18 February 2011

In this poll Yisrael Beitenu was not headed by Liberman. Ehud Barak’s Independence party did not get enough votes to get into the Knesset.

If elections were held today (expressed in Knesset seats) Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

32 [27] Likud headed by Netanyahu
30 [28] Kadima headed by Livni
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu not headed by Liberman
10 [11] Shas headed by Yishai
07 [08] Labor headed by Shelly Yacimovich
00 [05] Independence headed by Barak
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
04 [03] Meretz
04 [04] National Union
11 [11] Arab parties

Who would you like to be the next president?
Rivlin 61% Itzik 15% Sharansky 24%

Poll of representative sample of 500 Israeli adults carried out by Geocartography Knowledge Group – Prof. Avi Degani – this week for Israel Television Channel One’s Politika program. results broadcast on 15 February 2011

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats) Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

31 [28] Kadima
26 [27] Likud
17 [15] Yisrael Beiteinu
11 [11] Shas
06 [13] Labor
06 [03] Meretz
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] National Union
03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
11 [11] Arab parties
[none of the 500 people polled said that they would vote for Ehud Barak’s
party]

A channel 2 poll carried out by Sarid presented the question “Who is more fit to be prime minister?” and 32% responded Livni compared to just 28% who responded Netanyahu. It seems the raising of indirect taxes is hurting both the Likud and its coalition members. The poll shows 33 seats for Kadima, 29 for Likud, 15 for Lieberman, 8 for Shas and 8 for Labor. Barak’s Independence party doesn’t pass the threshold, earning only one seat. Results for the other parties were not shown.

The split of the Labor party and the establishment of the new Independence party piqued the interest of media across the country. Six separate polls were taken to gauge public opinion following the political shake up. All polls were conducted during the week of January 17-20, 2011.

My analysis is simple- it doesn’t matter which poll you are looking at, all of them show Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition maintaining the support of Israel’s citizens. It also presents a dark picture for Ehud Barak and his new Independence party.

Poll #1 was carried out by Channel 10

Poll #2 was carried out by Yediot Achronot (Dahaf)

Poll #3 was carried out by Channel 2

Poll #4 was carried out by Haaretz (Dialog)

Poll #5 was carried out by Maariv (Telesker)

Poll #6 was an alternate poll carried out by Maariv (Telesker)

Kadima, which today has 28 seats, would receive 27, 26, 29, 30 and 30 seats respectively in the first five polls for a combined range of 26-30 seats. In the alternate poll, Kadima would receive 31 seats with journalist Yair Lapid as their #2.

Likud, which today has 27 seats, would receive 30, 26, 28, 32 and 26 seats respectively in the first five polls for a combined range of 26-30 seats. In the alternate poll, Likud would receive 27 seats with Ehud Barak as their #2.

Yisrael Beitenu, which today has 15 seats, would receive 17, 14, 15, 15 and 16 seats respectively in five polls for a combined range of 14-17 seats.

Shas, which today has 11 seats, would receive 10, 10, 9, 11 and 10 seats respectively in five polls for a combined range of 9-11 seats.

United Torah Judaism, which today has 5 seats, would receive 6, 5 and 6 seats respectively in three polls for a combined range of 5-6 seats.

National Union, which today has 4 seats, would receive 3 seats according to one poll.

Jewish Home, which today has 3 seats, would receive 3 or 4 seats according to two different polls.

If the Jewish Home and National Union ran together they would receive 6 seats according to one poll. Today the parties together have 7 seats.

Meretz, which today has 3 seats, would receive 5 seats in both polls.

The three Arab parties, which today have 11 seats, would receive 9 or 10 seats according to two different polls.

Labor had 13 seats before the split and has 8 seats after it. Without Barak Labor would receive 8, 9, 5 and 8 respectively in the four polls for a combined range of 5-9 seats.

Ehud Barak’s Independence party, which currently has 5 seats, would receive 3, 2, 2, 2, 2 and 2 seats respectively in the first five polls for a combined range of 2-3 seats.

Dialog results:
Number of mandates for the Labor Party if specify who heads the Labor Party:
Yacimovich 10; Mitzne 9; Herzog 8; Braverman 5

Teleseker results:
Who is most appropriate to be the head of the Labor Party?
Herzog 19.9%; Mitzne 16.2%; Yacimovich 18.8%; Peretz 5.2%; Braverman 4.3%; Einy 3.9%; None of the above 14.9%; Don’t know 16.7%