Three polls carried out following the initial Channel 10 report on the alleged Bibi Tours affair showed that Netanyahu’s Likud would remain the front-runner if elections were called today. The first poll awards the conservative block with 71 seats, an increase of six, although two of the seats gained are by the conservative opposition party National Union. The second poll, another in a series of liberal dream scenario polls including various potential parties, would limit the conservative block to 60 seats. The third poll maintains the conservative block’s current 65 seats, although those seats are redistributed at the expense of Shas. In all three polls Kadima would fall to become Israel’s second biggest party, the Labor party stands to lose seats and Ehud Barak’s Independence party does not pass the threshold.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]. Poll #1 Poll #2 Poll #3
[28] Kadima 27 22 28
[27] Likud 29 24 30
[15] Yisrael Beitenu 16 17 16
[11] Shas 11 6 8
[08] Labor 7 6 7
[05] Yahadut Hatorah 6 6 5
[05] Independence (Ehud Barak) 0 0 0
[04] National Union 6 3 5
[03] Jewish Home 3 4 3
[03] Meretz 5 3 5
[11] Arab parties 10 10 *10
[—] Yair Lapid party 9
[—] Aryeh Deri party 7
[—] Green party 3
[—] National Left Party 0 3
*10 (Balad 4, Ra’am-Ta’al 3, Hadash 3)

Poll #1: Telephone poll of a representative sample of 500 adult Israelis (including Arab Israelis) carried out by Rafi Smith for Globes Magazine on March 28-29, 2011, and published on March 31, 2011. The survey error was +/- 4.4 percentage points.

Poll #2: Telephone poll of a representative sample of 506 adult Israelis (including Arab Israelis) that carried out by Shvakim Panorama for Israel Radio’s Hakol Diburim program on March 30, 2011, and broadcast on March 31, 2011. The survey error was +/- 4.4 percentage points.

Poll #3: Internet-based poll by Panels Polling Company for Knesset Channel 99 taken over the weekend of April 1-2, 2011, and televised Sunday, April 3, 2011.

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