Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Midgam conducted a poll of 500 people that was broadcast by Channel 2 on Jan 5 2014.
Additionally, a scenario poll was taken showing a new Moshe Kachalon led party.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [31] Likud Beitenu

16 [15] Labor

14 [19] Yesh Atid

11 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [06] Meretz

07 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

02 [02] Kadima

02 [–] Strong Israel

63 [61] Right-Religious

57 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The poll found that a party led by Moshe Kachlon would win 10 seats and twice as many Shas voters prefer Yishai over Deri as party leader. Likud Beitenu remains in lead, Labor still a distant second place.

Other questions:

Are you satisfied with current government? No 65%, Yes 27%
Who is most fit to serve as Prime Minister? Netanyahu 30%, Herzog 11%, Livni 7%, Bennett 6%, Liberman 6%, Lapid 5%
Among Shas voters, who should lead Shas? Yishai 50%, Deri 25%

Scenario Poll Results: Results were only shown of top six parties, it is unclear how it effects block situation.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [31] Likud Beitenu

16 [15] Labor

12 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [–] New Kachalon Party

09 [11] Shas

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on Dec 26 2013.

Additionally, Panels released a scenario poll result of a 3.25% threshold.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
33 [31] Likud Beitenu
16 [15] Labor
13 [19] Yesh Atid
13 [12] Bayit Yehudi
11 [06] Meretz
10 [11] Shas
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
02 [02] Kadima
62 [61] Right-Religious
58 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Panels conducted a scenario poll that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on Dec 26 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [31] Likud Beitenu
17 [15] Labor
14 [19] Yesh Atid
14 [12] Bayit Yehudi
12 [06] Meretz
11 [11] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash (4 is very borderline)
00 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
00 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
67 [61] Right-Religious
53 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The old traditional blocks are at 62-58 compared to the 60-60 tie in the Midgam poll. The scenario poll with a 3.25% threshold makes a good case for a Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad merger. The 3.25% threshold would enforce a 4 seat threshold.

Hadash’s high is 5 seats (last reached in 1988). Ra’am’s high is also 5 seats (1999). Balad has never won more than 3 seats.